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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,428

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Election Model Update 11/3/2016

Unfortunately I never got the map to work in my python code But here's the numbers:

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 81.94 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 306.19
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 308.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 317

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.49 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 312.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 306

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 4.46
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 07:43 PM (5 replies)

4 NH polls today

2 are not great so far but one is ARG so can likely be completely discounted.
Other 2 dropping later. Would be nice to see a firewall there.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:34 AM (23 replies)

Look what the Office of Personnel Management just tweeted out

https://twitter.com/USOPM/status/794183014695706624

This is a slow-motion coup folks.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 10:37 AM (18 replies)

FBI chooses today to release documents on early 2000 Bill Clinton Investigation.

https://twitter.com/EOTaxProf/status/793509577266462721


Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/793482749025792000


Best case scenario is this is a hack. Worst case scenario: FBI hopelessly compromised.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:05 PM (15 replies)

Well kids, that was an exciting evening

Everyone looking forward to tomorrow?

What? You didn't think they were done, did you?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Nov 1, 2016, 12:04 AM (4 replies)

FBI fighting back for Trump now

This is CLEARLY sourced by the FBI cabal that hates Clinton.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html?_r=1&referer=

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 10:53 PM (17 replies)

Gonna take the media DAYS to sort through tonights oppo dump

have patience about this mainstreaming.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 09:23 PM (11 replies)

Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?

Source: Slate

In late July, one of these scientists—who asked to be referred to as Tea Leaves, a pseudonym that would protect his relationship with the networks and banks that employ him to sift their data—found what looked like malware emanating from Russia. The destination domain had Trump in its name, which of course attracted Tea Leaves’ attention. But his discovery of the data was pure happenstance—a surprising needle in a large haystack of DNS lookups on his screen. “I have an outlier here that connects to Russia in a strange way,” he wrote in his notes. He couldn’t quite figure it out at first. But what he saw was a bank in Moscow that kept irregularly pinging a server registered to the Trump Organization on Fifth Avenue.

Read more: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html



TIC TIC TIC TIC...
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 06:01 PM (38 replies)

FBI’s James Comey Opposed Naming Russia As An Election Meddler, Second Source Confirms

We have two source confirmation of this story now.
Notice the language. It is almost certainly a *current* FBI official

FBI Director James Comey privately argued against having his bureau sign onto a statement saying the Russian government was meddling in the U.S. election, CNBC first reported on Monday, citing “a former FBI official.”

A source familiar with the interagency discussions confirms to The Huffington Post that Comey declined to do so because, specifically, he was concerned the statement was coming too close to the election. The source who spoke to HuffPost is not a former FBI official and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-comey-clinton-emails_us_5817b25de4b064e1b4b456f4?014c15cg5cvdxcg14i
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 05:34 PM (3 replies)

Evan McMullin is ex-CIA isn't he?

The CIA has never really liked the FBI all that much.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 11:09 AM (3 replies)
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