November 7, 2016

Anyone got any new polling data for Michigan?

That state is impoverished for polls...

November 7, 2016

Monmouth National Poll (4 way): C50 T44

BREAKING: National likely voters

HRC 50
DJT 44
GJ 4
JS 1

November 7, 2016

Hidden vote: women.

A thought that occurred to me while reading some commentary on polilng. What does the early vote look like with women compared to 2012. If anyone has that data, it would be interesting to share.

It's possible that a "hidden women vote" can in part counteract any "hidden white vote" (which as likely as not does not actually exist).

November 7, 2016

I think we have this locked down folks

Mostly I just want this called early. Florida or NC, come through...I need my sleep.


The only possible way don't win is if we are somehow not polling enough poor whites. I think the analysis of this heretofore has been pretty sound, though.

November 4, 2016

Heads up on oppo dump and Eichenwald

I had one person tell me Eichenwald is not oppo dump, but related for it (context). I had another person tell me it is the oppo dump.

So I honestly don't know at this point.

November 3, 2016

Election Model Update 11/3/2016

Unfortunately I never got the map to work in my python code But here's the numbers:

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 81.94 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 306.19
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 308.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 317

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.49 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 312.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 306

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 4.46

November 3, 2016

4 NH polls today

2 are not great so far but one is ARG so can likely be completely discounted.
Other 2 dropping later. Would be nice to see a firewall there.

November 3, 2016

Look what the Office of Personnel Management just tweeted out

https://twitter.com/USOPM/status/794183014695706624

This is a slow-motion coup folks.

November 1, 2016

FBI chooses today to release documents on early 2000 Bill Clinton Investigation.

https://twitter.com/EOTaxProf/status/793509577266462721


Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/793482749025792000


Best case scenario is this is a hack. Worst case scenario: FBI hopelessly compromised.

November 1, 2016

Well kids, that was an exciting evening

Everyone looking forward to tomorrow?

What? You didn't think they were done, did you?