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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,428

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

I could use another good Oppo dump soon

I am finally done laughing from the last few weeks of oppo dumps. I need my fix, dammit.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:03 AM (3 replies)

Anybody want a list of the Trump companies operating in Russia that he denies exist?

Check this out:

https://twitter.com/funder/status/788040411407343618
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 17, 2016, 05:03 PM (2 replies)

Monmouth Poll H50 T38

BREAKING: National
LV: HRC 50 / DJT 38
RV: HRC 47 / DJT 38

62% say allegations agst Trump likely true


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_101716/

Normally, I'd tell everyone to average their polls but instead...

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 17, 2016, 01:06 PM (1 replies)

Conspiracists on twitter freaking out under #Assange hashtag

Lot of rumors of an extradition at this point.

It is almost certainly just conspiracy nuts doing what conspiracy nuts do, but would be interesting if related to Roger Stone's weird tweet today...
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:58 PM (10 replies)

Why is Roger Stone threatening the Trump campaign?

This is weird.

Roger Stone
‏@RogerJStoneJr
It turns out the entity with which I signed a non-disclosure agreement for the #Trump campaign was never legally constituted #invalid


https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/787774752576245760
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 16, 2016, 07:01 PM (16 replies)

Election Model Update 10/16/2016

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.47 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.74
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 324

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 91.68 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 324.35
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 325.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 307

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 5.76
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 16, 2016, 03:49 PM (0 replies)

Jebus Christ, is Podesta's Gmail STILL compromised?

https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/786621649642598400

So someone on 4chan requested a password reset for his twitter (to be sent to his gmail), posted to 4chan and said if any of you are monitoring this gmail account, hack his twitter.

John, seriously, get some IT help. Your're fortunate your emails are so boring.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Oct 13, 2016, 01:46 PM (8 replies)

John Podesta is stupid with cybersecurity.

So his email was just hacked a few weeks ago and tonight his twitter feed was hacked.

Turn on your two factor authentication, John, please.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/12/clinton-campaign-chairman-john-podestas-twitter-account-may-have-been-hacked/
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Oct 13, 2016, 01:05 AM (5 replies)

Rats jumping back onto the sinking ship



Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer on Tuesday reversed her call for Donald Trump to resign from the GOP ticket, telling a local radio station that it's "not a tough choice" to back him just three days after she urged him to quit.
"I plan to vote for Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence on November 8," she said on Nebraska's KLIN. "I put out a statement ... with regard to Mr. Trump's comments. I felt they were disgusting. I felt they were unacceptable and I never said I was not voting for our Republican ticket."



LOL this is about as funny as it gets.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/deb-fischer-donald-trump-229643#ixzz4Mq2E8LAP
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 11, 2016, 11:34 PM (12 replies)

Election Model Update 10/11

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 84.52 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 311.29
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 330

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 88.57 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 316.7
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 319.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 323

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 5.01
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 11, 2016, 08:23 PM (0 replies)
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