Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 315.01
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 324

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 80.32 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 302.09
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 303.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 291

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 3.33

Analysis: Projected national lead building...both drift probability and instantaneous probability are in the same range. With only a ~month to go, are these numbers finally converging? Whatever the case, Clinton's bad week in September is now completely out of the algorithms system.

Making it a public campaign event was the ONLY WAY they could get Donald to practice for the next debate. Certain of that.

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.3 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.02
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 321

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 74.4 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 296.77
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 299.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 308

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 2.25

I really need to get to the rock gym...

1) Russia thought Assange was revealing something today and were upset he did not.
2) Russia does not have as much hacked data as we thought (recycling old files)
3) Russia does not expect to actually throw the election to Trump. They just want to keep his dumber fans doubting the legitimacy of Clinton.

I know this meme is pretty much dead by now, but I'm still laughing...

for helping execute what might be the greatest troll op in history.

My hat is off to them.

Since Wikileaks is having a press conference tomorrow, and because expectations on them are so high at this point, I expect that they have to release *something*. However, I don't think they really have much (everything they have leaked on HRC has been a nothingburger, more or less). Furthermore, President Correa of Ecuador is reportedly increasingly pissed at Assange and may be forbidding the release of anything really damaging (on pain of expulsion from Ecuador's embassy).

However, I'm going to set up a pool here with some leak possibilities (and feel free to add your own). Winner to be announced tomorrow at or before this time.

1) Nothing released at all. Entire press conference is a "Happy Birthday to Wikileaks* celebration.
2) Diplomatic cables in which Clinton calls some world leader an "asshole" or says something otherwise nasty.
3) Transcripts of meeting where Clinton jokes about "droning" Assange (heavy favorite, given right wing crazy twitter today)
4) More DNC gossipy/backstabby emails
5) More cranky voicemails
6) Intimations that someone is having an affair with someone.
7) False flag documents that will actually embarrass Wikileaks when its revealed they are obvious fakes.


Thoughts?

Kind of a fun exercise on twitter in countering alt-right Pepe memes...

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/782762792344576000

#takingbackthefrog

This ought to be good for a laugh