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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,427

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

What the Fake Guccifer Hack might tell us

1) Russia thought Assange was revealing something today and were upset he did not.
2) Russia does not have as much hacked data as we thought (recycling old files)
3) Russia does not expect to actually throw the election to Trump. They just want to keep his dumber fans doubting the legitimacy of Clinton.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 4, 2016, 07:02 PM (11 replies)

Downfall: Assange/Trump edition

I know this meme is pretty much dead by now, but I'm still laughing...
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 4, 2016, 05:23 PM (3 replies)

I now want to contribute to wikileaks...

for helping execute what might be the greatest troll op in history.

My hat is off to them.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 4, 2016, 10:02 AM (7 replies)

WIKILEAKS DUMB LEAK CONTEST

Since Wikileaks is having a press conference tomorrow, and because expectations on them are so high at this point, I expect that they have to release *something*. However, I don't think they really have much (everything they have leaked on HRC has been a nothingburger, more or less). Furthermore, President Correa of Ecuador is reportedly increasingly pissed at Assange and may be forbidding the release of anything really damaging (on pain of expulsion from Ecuador's embassy).

However, I'm going to set up a pool here with some leak possibilities (and feel free to add your own). Winner to be announced tomorrow at or before this time.

1) Nothing released at all. Entire press conference is a "Happy Birthday to Wikileaks* celebration.
2) Diplomatic cables in which Clinton calls some world leader an "asshole" or says something otherwise nasty.
3) Transcripts of meeting where Clinton jokes about "droning" Assange (heavy favorite, given right wing crazy twitter today)
4) More DNC gossipy/backstabby emails
5) More cranky voicemails
6) Intimations that someone is having an affair with someone.
7) False flag documents that will actually embarrass Wikileaks when its revealed they are obvious fakes.


Thoughts?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 3, 2016, 08:36 PM (13 replies)

#takingbackthefrog

Kind of a fun exercise on twitter in countering alt-right Pepe memes...

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/782762792344576000

#takingbackthefrog
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:40 AM (1 replies)

Roger Stone claims Wikileaks drop Wednesday

This ought to be good for a laugh
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 2, 2016, 12:29 PM (18 replies)

So Trump's business model

is basically

1) Get heavily leveraged
2) Force most losses onto other parties
3) Claim these same capital losses to defray 20 years of income taxes
4) Allowing him to re-leverage and live high off the hog again
5) Lather, rinse, repeat?

Think that's it?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 2, 2016, 12:49 AM (7 replies)

Election Model Update

9/30 Update

9/27 Update

9/25 Update

9/24 Update

9/21 Update

9/22 Update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

Model projections:

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 75.31 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 295.02
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 298.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 301

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 65.45 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 286.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 270

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 1.98

Effectively unchanged since yesterday.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:57 PM (0 replies)

Election Model Update 9/30

9/27 Update

9/25 Update

9/24 Update

9/21 Update

9/22 Update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

Model projections:


#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 74.51 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 294.38
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 297.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 303

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 66.5 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 286.49
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 291

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 1.93

Long range forecast starting to climb significantly again. Slight reduction in instantaneous forecast, likely just noise in the distribution estimates. Expect instantaneous forecast to converge to long range in the next few weeks.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:08 AM (4 replies)

Gary Johnson is Jeff Spicoli



It's just so completely perfect.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 28, 2016, 10:04 PM (10 replies)
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