Loki Liesmith
Loki Liesmith's JournalMonmouth Poll H50 T38
LV: HRC 50 / DJT 38
RV: HRC 47 / DJT 38
62% say allegations agst Trump likely true
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_101716/
Normally, I'd tell everyone to average their polls but instead...
Conspiracists on twitter freaking out under #Assange hashtag
Lot of rumors of an extradition at this point.
It is almost certainly just conspiracy nuts doing what conspiracy nuts do, but would be interesting if related to Roger Stone's weird tweet today...
Why is Roger Stone threatening the Trump campaign?
This is weird.
?@RogerJStoneJr
It turns out the entity with which I signed a non-disclosure agreement for the #Trump campaign was never legally constituted #invalid
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/787774752576245760
Election Model Update 10/16/2016
Model Description:Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################
Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.47 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.74
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 324
#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################
Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 91.68 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 324.35
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 325.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 307
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 5.76
Jebus Christ, is Podesta's Gmail STILL compromised?
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/786621649642598400So someone on 4chan requested a password reset for his twitter (to be sent to his gmail), posted to 4chan and said if any of you are monitoring this gmail account, hack his twitter.
John, seriously, get some IT help. Your're fortunate your emails are so boring.
John Podesta is stupid with cybersecurity.
So his email was just hacked a few weeks ago and tonight his twitter feed was hacked.
Turn on your two factor authentication, John, please.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/12/clinton-campaign-chairman-john-podestas-twitter-account-may-have-been-hacked/
Rats jumping back onto the sinking ship
Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer on Tuesday reversed her call for Donald Trump to resign from the GOP ticket, telling a local radio station that it's "not a tough choice" to back him just three days after she urged him to quit.
"I plan to vote for Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence on November 8," she said on Nebraska's KLIN. "I put out a statement ... with regard to Mr. Trump's comments. I felt they were disgusting. I felt they were unacceptable and I never said I was not voting for our Republican ticket."
LOL this is about as funny as it gets.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/deb-fischer-donald-trump-229643#ixzz4Mq2E8LAP
Election Model Update 10/11
Search my journal pages for previous updates
Model Description:
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################
Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 84.52 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 311.29
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 330
#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################
Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 88.57 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 316.7
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 319.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 323
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 5.01
An interesting pattern in "deplorables" on twitter
Many accounts were registered late last year. But did not begin posting anything until on after February 27 of 2016.
It's like a switch got flipped.
Will continue to follow up.
Eichenwald update: Someone is DIRECTLY feeding Trump Russian Disinformation and Trump is repeating
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/785661547234271232http://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-sidney-blumenthal-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-benghazi-sputnik-508635
“This just came out a little while ago,’’ Trump said. “I have to tell you this.” And then he read the words from my article.
“He’s now admitting they could have done something about Benghazi,’’ Trump said, dropping the document to the floor. “This just came out a little while ago.”
The crowd booed and chanted, “Lock her up!”
This is not funny. It is terrifying. The Russians engage in a sloppy disinformation effort and, before the day is out, the Republican nominee for president is standing on a stage reciting the manufactured story as truth. How did this happen? Who in the Trump campaign was feeding him falsehoods straight from the Kremlin?
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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AMNumber of posts: 4,602
