reggieandlee
reggieandlee's JournalBTRTN 2020 Vision: Joe Biden Enters the Race and Takes Command
Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest monthly quantitative and qualitative synopsis of the 2020 race for the White House. The big news: Joe Biden comes out strong, and has the numbers to show for it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-2020-vision-joe-biden-enters-race.html
Excerpts:"The first few weeks of Joe Biden’s long-awaited 2020 campaign were always going to be utterly crucial to his prospects. Out of the spotlight for some time, would the 76-year-old look too frail or aged to potential voters? Long a poor fundraiser, with neither big-time Wall Street connections nor a small money Main Street online donor network, would he disappoint with his initial numbers? And would he resume his persona as the 'Gaffing Groper' on the campaign trail, master of 20th century retail politics but woefully out of touch with 21st century sensibilities? No, no and no. Joe Biden has passed the early tests of his candidacy – demonstrating vitality, clout and adaptability -- and has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the Democratic sweepstakes, dominating a swelling field that now numbers 23, and may still be growing...
"Unlike any of the other candidates, Biden made it clear he was running against Trump, invoking Charlottesville and ignoring the Democratic field. Suddenly Democrats were reminded that while progressives have been the loudest voices within the party of late, clamoring for change, the dominant voting bloc remains more mainstream centrists...
"Biden’s strong start sets up a far different dynamic than was anticipated. Essentially it is Biden’s nomination until he stumbles, and he will continue to run against Trump until (and unless) he has to address a real challenge. Trump is helping carry Biden’s water considerably, tweeting (or re-tweeting) about Biden in a frenzy after the launch, clearly reflecting of the Trumpian view that Biden is the only real threat he faces..."
BTRTN: Crazy Like Fox... Dems Should Follow Bernie Across the Cable DMZ
Born To Run The Numbers on the Barr, Hannity, and why Bernie Sanders was brilliant to do a town hall on Fox News.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-crazy-like-fox-dems-should-follow.html
Excerpts:
"When Bernie Sanders went on Fox, he ventured across the 38th parallel of cable news and spoke to the isolated and programmed North Hannity-ites on the other side, who finally may have discovered that Democrats were not the 'hate and hysteria' people that Dear Leader claims them to be... Bernie did well. He deftly used humor to defuse tension, and his Fox hosts were stunned by positive reactions among the town hall participants to Bernie’s ideas about government-sponsored healthcare...
"Most important, Bernie Sanders's gamble on Fox helps illuminate an essential truth. The ferocious loyalty of Donald Trump's base is the fuel for his assault on our democracy. As long as he exerts his mind-control over these people, cowardly Republican Senators are terrified of taking Trump on. As long as the base controls those Senators, Trump knows he can't be impeached. If he can't be impeached, he feels emboldened to trample our Constitution and our institutions of government to preserve his power and further cloak his history of illegal activity. By eroding, weakening, and crushing those institutional checks on executive power, Trump is ever more able to limit oversight, obstructing justice in an entirely new way.
"The Democrats should be offering to do ten debates on Fox. Can you imagine what might happen if Democrats had three hours on Fox Prime time once a week? How much they could discuss the realities of what has happened under Donald Trump’s leadership? To point out the lies, the deceits, and the many ways in which Donald Trump’s policies are actually hurting the people who are voting for him?"
BTRTN April 2019 Month in Review: The Mueller Report is Over! Long Live the Mueller Report!
Born to Run the Numbers on a dizzying month of April, in which AG Barr made every effort to smother the Mueller Report... only to discover that it will morph, multiply, and continue to haunt the Trump White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-april-2019-month-in-review.html
Excerpts: "The Mueller report was finally released on April 18, redacted in part and preceded by another volley from Trump’s ever-spinning personal attorney, oops, that is, Attorney General William Barr. The man charged with representing U.S. citizens and protecting the laws of the land held a press conference in advance of the release, and continued the self-demolition job on his own reputation earned across decades in Washington. And thus began the sequel, or sequels, to the Mueller Report. One can count at least six different tracks that the release has spawned, all of which will play out in the coming months as we careen towards 2020.
"On obstruction of justice, Mueller was far more damning. While he declined to charge Trump with obstruction -- in accordance with Department of Justice guidelines the preclude indicting a sitting president – Volume II of the report left a trail of bread crumbs worthy of an entire Pepperidge Farm factory for Congress to pursue the case on its own. He pointedly concluded that he did have the ability to exonerate Trump from obstruction charges -- but could not do so given the evidence. But he did not have the power to indict, so he left that to Congress, and provided them with a boatload of evidence...
"Perhaps the most consequential statement in the entire report was this:'The President's efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the President declined to carry out orders or accede to his request.' Obviously Mueller believed Trump himself had attempted to obstruct justice repeatedly, and was a least partially successful. Thus began the Mueller mutation, with at least six different new tracks to follow from here..."
BTRTN April 2019 Month in Review: The Mueller Report is Over! Long Live the Mueller Report!
Born to Run the Numbers on a dizzying month of April, in which AG Barr made every effort to smother the Mueller Report... only to discover that it will morph, multiply, and continue to haunt the Trump White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-april-2019-month-in-review.html
Excerpts: "The Mueller report was finally released on April 18, redacted in part and preceded by another volley from Trump’s ever-spinning personal attorney, oops, that is, Attorney General William Barr. The man charged with representing U.S. citizens and protecting the laws of the land held a press conference in advance of the release, and continued the self-demolition job on his own reputation earned across decades in Washington. And thus began the sequel, or sequels, to the Mueller Report. One can count at least six different tracks that the release has spawned, all of which will play out in the coming months as we careen towards 2020.
"On obstruction of justice, Mueller was far more damning. While he declined to charge Trump with obstruction -- in accordance with Department of Justice guidelines the preclude indicting a sitting president – Volume II of the report left a trail of bread crumbs worthy of an entire Pepperidge Farm factory for Congress to pursue the case on its own. He pointedly concluded that he did have the ability to exonerate Trump from obstruction charges -- but could not do so given the evidence. But he did not have the power to indict, so he left that to Congress, and provided them with a boatload of evidence...
"Perhaps the most consequential statement in the entire report was this:'The President's efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the President declined to carry out orders or accede to his request.' Obviously Mueller believed Trump himself had attempted to obstruct justice repeatedly, and was a least partially successful. Thus began the Mueller mutation, with at least six different new tracks to follow from here..."
BTRTN: Joe's In... Now How Can the Dems Avoid Another "Circular Firing Squad" in 2020?
Born to Run the Numbers on the question triggered by Biden's entry... will 2020 be a re-enactment of 2016, when an outsider (Sanders) and an establishment candidate (then Clinton) pulled the party apart and created the opening Trump needed to win? If we see it coming, what can we do about it?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-joes-in-now-how-can-dems-avoid.html
Excerpts: "A few days back, Barack Obama spoke about the danger of rigid philosophical positions and extremist views in the progressive space. He issued a clear warning to the Democratic Party: the danger of ideological litmus tests is that they alienate Democrat from Democrat, and can create the sliver of an opening that is all Donald Trump will need to be re-elected... His message was a warning that the growing rift between ideologically-fixed progressives and centrist pragmatists could rip the party asunder, much as the Tea Party did to the Republican Party, turning the once-proud GOP into a soulless swamp of spineless suck-ups, sycophants, and slime. We have met the enemy, Obama was saying, and he or she may be us. Donald Trump may not be able to beat the Democrats, but internecine warfare could...
"Add to the toxic soup one final dollop of unsavory reality: the younger of these two guys was the one born eleven months after Pearl Harbor. The two front-runners for the Democratic Presidential nomination for most profound election of our lifetime are two aging white guys who each now lead the opposite ends of the ideological split that is rending the Democratic Party. It is a formula for disaster. But if we can see it so much more clearly this time – and so far in advance – can we not take steps to avoid the type of bitter alienation that costs the party the votes it will need to beat Trump?"
BTRTN: The Real Reason to Impeach Donald Trump
Born To Run The Numbers on why the House should initiate the impeachment of Donald Trump now:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-real-reason-to-impeach-donald.html
Excerpts: "All the savvy strategists like Nancy Pelosi think that impeaching Donald Trump is a bad political move. Sure, they say, you could probably pass the motion to impeach Trump in the House, but all that does is trigger a trial in the Senate to determine whether Trump is removed from office. And there, the shrewd pols opine, you will never get seventeen Republicans to vote against Trump... it is just a big waste of time and effort, and in the end it will boomerang and badly damage the Democrats... Trump will scream that he has been vindicated, exonerated, .... impeachment will only serve to damage the chances for the Democrats to win the White House in 2020, as they will look like they are obsessively trying to take Trump down. Just as the impeachment of Bill Clinton ended up damaging the Republicans, so too the Democrats will be the only ones hurt by trying to impeach Trump. Right?"
"There they are, folks... the smoking guns you’ve been asking for. Corroborated testimony from reliable witnesses that Trump made repeated attempts with conscious intent to hinder, thwart, inhibit, and undermine the Mueller investigation, by trying to fire the Special Prosecutor himself, witness tampering, and urging subordinates to lie to the Special Counsel. Trump obstructed justice..."
"Which brings us to the essential issue of the day: if Congressional Democrats are confronted with essentially irrefutable evidence that the President of the United States committed a “high crime or misdemeanor,” do they even have the option to ignore it?"
"Ok, Nancy, let’s play this game on your terms. Allow me to challenge your essential premise: is your approach really all that savvy politically? You seem convinced that if the Senate fails to convict Donald Trump, it will cause a backlash of shame and embarrassment for the Democrats just as the 2020 election nears.Here’s a different take."
BTRTN: The Real Reason to Impeach Donald Trump
Born To Run The Numbers on why the House should initiate the impeachment of Donald Trump now:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-real-reason-to-impeach-donald.html
Excerpts: "All the savvy strategists like Nancy Pelosi think that impeaching Donald Trump is a bad political move. Sure, they say, you could probably pass the motion to impeach Trump in the House, but all that does is trigger a trial in the Senate to determine whether Trump is removed from office. And there, the shrewd pols opine, you will never get seventeen Republicans to vote against Trump... it is just a big waste of time and effort, and in the end it will boomerang and badly damage the Democrats... Trump will scream that he has been vindicated, exonerated, .... impeachment will only serve to damage the chances for the Democrats to win the White House in 2020, as they will look like they are obsessively trying to take Trump down. Just as the impeachment of Bill Clinton ended up damaging the Republicans, so too the Democrats will be the only ones hurt by trying to impeach Trump. Right?"
"There they are, folks... the smoking guns you’ve been asking for. Corroborated testimony from reliable witnesses that Trump made repeated attempts with conscious intent to hinder, thwart, inhibit, and undermine the Mueller investigation, by trying to fire the Special Prosecutor himself, witness tampering, and urging subordinates to lie to the Special Counsel. Trump obstructed justice..."
"Which brings us to the essential issue of the day: if Congressional Democrats are confronted with essentially irrefutable evidence that the President of the United States committed a “high crime or misdemeanor,” do they even have the option to ignore it?"
"Ok, Nancy, let’s play this game on your terms. Allow me to challenge your essential premise: is your approach really all that savvy politically? You seem convinced that if the Senate fails to convict Donald Trump, it will cause a backlash of shame and embarrassment for the Democrats just as the 2020 election nears.Here’s a different take."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: Biden Surviving and Mayor Pete Rising
Born to Run the Numbers' newest installment of their "2020 Vision" series, summarizing the past month's key developments, changes in polling data, and overall trends in the race for the White House:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-2020-vision-biden-surviving-and.html
Excerpts: "The month was dominated by a gut-check for Biden and the rise of Buttigieg. Biden became embroiled in controversy when a Nevada assemblywomen, Lucy Flores, accused him of inappropriate physical contact with her when he was campaigning in 2014. Video confirmed Biden’s traditional use of an old school, touchy-feely brand of retail politics. Biden was slow to respond, did not get it “right” off the bat, and was clearly reeling from the charges...There is little question that Biden was hurt by the issue, since, at the very least, it hit him in his biggest area of vulnerability, that he is old and out of touch with today’s values...
"Pete Buttigieg, quite simply, has broken through. And while he has a fascinating resume, it is not the resume that is causing the fuss. It is the man himself, how he speaks, his common-sense, straightforward take on the issues, his personal appeal, that is driving the “Mayor Pete” wave...Buttigieg made his formal announcement this past Sunday, and the reaction has been astonishing. The talk is of JFK and Obama, two previous winners who ran, respectively, on “the torch has passed to a new generation” and “hope and change” messaging.
"Buttigieg has jumped into Tier 2, leaping from 0% to 11% in Iowa, and from 0% to 3% nationally. No other candidates showed any similar movement up or down. Amy Klobuchar fell from Tier 2 to Tier 3, her candidacy sinking under the weight of negative press on how she treats her Senate staff, and her moderate message that may be well off the party’s lefty tendencies. Kristen Gillibrand has yet to make a mark..."
BTRTN: Pete Buttigieg... Jimmy Carter Redux?
Born To Run The Numbers provides perspective on the Pete Buttigieg phenomenon by noting the similarities between 1976 and 2020.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-pete-buttigieg-jimmy-carter-redux.html
Excerpts:
"A Republican administration is reeling from the stench of unprecedented scandal. The incumbent Republican President is tarnished, widely unpopular, and considered such a buffoon that he is constantly ridiculed and lampooned by late night comedians. Democrats feel they have a clear shot to take back the White House, and a full seventeen candidates announce campaigns for the Presidency. We are not talking about 2020. We are describing 1976..."
"But the most brilliant tactic Carter employed was to market himself precisely on his lack of association with Washington and traditional politics. Carter was so unknown that the newspaper in the biggest city in the state where he has served as governor – the Atlanta Constitution -- ran this headline: “Jimmy Who is Running for What?” Carter intuited that a candidate wholly insulated from the industrial grade waste Americans saw in Washington, D.C. was best positioned to win in 1976..."
"Being the telegenic and media savvy 37-year-old gay mayor of a modest midwestern city alone is a package that seems a million miles from the crusty old farts club in Washington, D.C. If America craves an outsider, Pete Buttigieg is not just outside of geographic proximity of the nation’s capital, he is outside of the typical candidate resume, outside the age norm, and outside of sexual orientation norm. Pete Buttigieg is turning the Democratic party inside out...
BTRTN March 2019 Month in Review: Mueller Time Masks a Dreadful Month for Trump on Signature Issues
Born To Run The Numbers' March-in-review details just how much went wrong in the month that history may view as the finest of his presidency:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/04/btrtn-march-2019-month-in-review.html
Excerpts: "Now it is no great accomplishment to avoid being named as an unindicted co-conspirator – it’s not exactly up there with defeating Hitler, creating the Marshall Plan, winning the Cuban Missile Crisis, enacting monumental Civil Rights legislation, landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth, signing the Camp David Accords, bringing down the Soviets, or killing Osama bin Laden. But it is something..."
"Trump can indeed crow for now about the legal validation of his long-repeated “no collusion, no obstruction” mantra, based on Attorney General Barr’s four-page conclusions... None of this may matter much in the long run of history, or even in the balance of Trump’s presidency. The month was chock full of setbacks of all kinds for the Trump Administration, on many of his signature issues...
"Trump’s approval rating ticked up one point to 42%, though the reality is that Trump remained smack in the middle of the same zone he has been in his entire presidency. Trump’s high point for any month was 46% in February, 2017, the first full month of his presidency, and the low was 38%, just six months later in August, 2017. But most of those months Trump has been in the 40-43% range. No president has operated in such a tight band in his first two years, another sign of the polarized world we live in and that Trump has exacerbated."
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