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reggieandlee

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Member since: Wed Jul 20, 2016, 05:44 PM
Number of posts: 697

Journal Archives

BTRTN 2020 Vision: Warren Soars, Blows to Bernie and Biden...and an Opening for Pete?

Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest comprehensive monthly update on the status of the 2020 Presidential Race:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-2020-vision-warren-soars-blows-to.html

Excerpts: "Biden continues to lead in the national polls, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats, but Elizabeth Warren made a huge jump, now alone in second place and closing fast on Biden.
...The first three 'early states' – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada – are now all very close races. Warren is slightly ahead in Iowa, more so in New Hampshire and Nevada is a three-way tie.
...Biden continues to dominate South Carolina, the only early state with a strong African-American presence, his strongest demographic and his 'firewall.'
...Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack while on the road, bringing the age of all three leading candidates into sharp focus; Sanders, while sidelined, lost some ground nationally and in Iowa.

Two emerging stories have gone largely unreported: (1) The rise of Pete Buttigieg in Iowa. The ground reports on Pete in the Hawkeye State have been glowing for months, but none of that turned into poll momentum until this past month, when three separate polls had him in double digits and catching up to Sanders. If Mayor Pete is able to snag a top three spot in the Iowa caucus, that would be a significant development. (2) Super Tuesday. With everyone focused on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no one has been focused on the true prize. The early states have 155 delegates at stake, but Super Tuesday has 1,255. If Biden can survive the first three contests and win South Carolina (where he continues to lead), he is well positioned for a delegate haul on Super Tuesday."

BTRTN: Warren Buffeted as Pete Punches and Klobuchar Clobbers.

Born to Run the Numbers analyzes Tuesday's Debate, in which Buttigieg and Klobuchar took the battle to Elizabeth Warren:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-warren-buffeted-as-pete-punches.html

Excerpts:"Elizabeth Warren just had to know that she would need to come to Tuesday’s Democratic debate equipped with shock absorbers, shoulder pads, and laser shields. Not only has she recently stormed upward in the polls, but every one of her rivals seemed to enter last night's debate with flagging campaigns...Much of Warren’s candidacy is premised on her willingness to squarely identify the root causes of complicated problems, and to provide clear, concrete plans for how to address them...She had to know that the question of taxes on the middle class would come her way, and – somewhat shockingly – she didn’t have a plan for that..."
"It was during the healthcare portion of the debate that we realized Pete Buttigieg was going to have a strong evening. Pete has been criticized in past debates for an almost excessively cerebral, clinical approach, studiously avoiding direct challenges to fellow candidates. But last night a new Pete emerged. He watched Elizabeth Warren’s contortions in evading the tax question, and immediately went on the offensive: “Well, we heard it tonight… a yes or no question that did not get a yes or no answer.”
"Amy Klobuchar, who continues to improve with each debate, may have done the most for her candidacy of anyone on the stage...
She took her first shot as Warren was engaged in heavy evasive maneuvering on the issue of whether “Medicare for All" would increase middle class taxes. 'At least Bernie is being honest here and saying how he’s going to pay for this and that taxes are going to go up. And I’m sorry, Elizabeth, but you have not said that, and I think we owe it to the American people to tell them where we’re going to send the invoice,' Klobuchar scolded. Feel the burn!
"Last night, Pete punched, Klobuchar clobbered, and Elizabeth Warren was buffeted..."

BTRTN: "Some of the People All of the Time"... How Stupid Does Trump Think Republicans Are?

Born To Run The Numbers explains to Republicans that Donald Trump must think they are all as dumb as box of hammers:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-some-of-people-all-of-time-how.html

Excerpts: "Abraham Lincoln... is credited with the observation that 'You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.' He probably would not be thrilled to learn that his Grand Old Party has become 'some of the people all of the time...
"Please, my Republican friends, Donald Trump is not trying to retro-actively reposition his behavior on the phone call to Zelensky in an attempt to fool me. He knows he will never get my support. He is saying all this stuff because he desperately needs your support. You are the 43% approval rating that he is clinging to like a drunk hugging the porcelain...
"Yes, Donald Trump thinks that all you Republicans will completely dismiss, ignore, and reject the multiple texts from a career diplomat expressing outrage that military assistance is being held up pending Ukrainian abdication to an illegal scheme to aid the President’s re-election. Or, perhaps, more accurately, that you won't even take the time to read them for yourselves...Go ahead, Republicans… toe Trump’s line. Don't trouble yourselves with testing his rationalizations and fabrications against fact.You can believe that Trump didn’t use the leverage of your tax dollars to put the screws to the leader of a fragile, brutally threatened ally in order to force him to manufacture dirt on Trump's most threatening political adversary... Convince yourself Donald Trump is not a clear and present danger to our democracy, our Constitution, our standing in the global community, and the health of our planet. While you're at it, you can even believe that Alabama is reeling from a non-existent hurricane, that global warming isn’t real, that Ted Cruz’s father killed JFK, and that Obama was born in Kenya...There they are, President Lincoln...Some of the people, all of the time.
Posted by reggieandlee | Tue Oct 8, 2019, 06:43 AM (3 replies)

BTRTN: "Some of the People All of the Time"... How Stupid Does Trump Think Republicans Are?

Born To Run The Numbers explains to Republicans that Donald Trump must think they are all as dumb as box of hammers:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-some-of-people-all-of-time-how.html

Excerpts: "Abraham Lincoln... is credited with the observation that 'You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.' He probably would not be thrilled to learn that his Grand Old Party has become 'some of the people all of the time...
"Please, my Republican friends, Donald Trump is not trying to retro-actively reposition his behavior on the phone call to Zelensky in an attempt to fool me. He knows he will never get my support. He is saying all this stuff because he desperately needs your support. You are the 43% approval rating that he is clinging to like a drunk hugging the porcelain...
"Yes, Donald Trump thinks that all you Republicans will completely dismiss, ignore, and reject the multiple texts from a career diplomat expressing outrage that military assistance is being held up pending Ukrainian abdication to an illegal scheme to aid the President’s re-election. Or, perhaps, more accurately, that you won't even take the time to read them for yourselves...Go ahead, Republicans… toe Trump’s line. Don't trouble yourselves with testing his rationalizations and fabrications against fact.You can believe that Trump didn’t use the leverage of your tax dollars to put the screws to the leader of a fragile, brutally threatened ally in order to force him to manufacture dirt on Trump's most threatening political adversary... Convince yourself Donald Trump is not a clear and present danger to our democracy, our Constitution, our standing in the global community, and the health of our planet. While you're at it, you can even believe that Alabama is reeling from a non-existent hurricane, that global warming isn’t real, that Ted Cruz’s father killed JFK, and that Obama was born in Kenya...There they are, President Lincoln...Some of the people, all of the time.
Posted by reggieandlee | Tue Oct 8, 2019, 06:42 AM (1 replies)

BTRTN September 2019 Month in Review: Ukraine Gamechanger

Born To Run The Numbers reviews of September, the month a whistle-blower dealt a potentially mortal blow to the Trump presidency:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-september-2019-month-in-review.html

Excerpts:
"The whistleblower report absolutely dominated the month, upending, in one fell swoop, Trump’s desire to move past the Mueller report; the Democrats’ desire to further the Russia investigation and other assorted allegations through ongoing investigations; Pelosi’s desire to avoid impeachment proceedings; the 2020 candidates’ collective desires to focus attention on their campaigns and the future; and candidate Biden in particular, who found himself at the epicenter of the controversy...
"Doubtless more will emerge in the coming months. But in the days following the whistleblower revelations the ranks of Democrats joining the impeachment bandwagon began to swell. Particularly notable was an op-ed by seven freshman Democrats, all with national security experience, all in “vulnerable” districts (the kind most likely to oppose impeachment) who signed on to an impeachment inquiry and stated that the allegations, if true, were impeachable offenses. Pelosi concluded she had no choice but to formally open the inquiry.
"The GOP is not exactly falling in line with Trump... what is most striking is the silence. Apart from Graham and Representative Jim Jordan, few Republicans have picked up the talking points from the Trump team and taken that message to the airwaves.
"The polls tell a story of America in flux. Most polls had previously shown support for impeachment in the 40% range, and opposition over 50%, but now there has been upward movement on the pro-impeachment side. A CNN poll has 47% now favoring impeachment, up from 41% in May; opposition to impeachment dropped from 54% to 45%. Morning Consult has similar numbers, 46% to 43%."
Posted by reggieandlee | Thu Oct 3, 2019, 01:12 PM (1 replies)

BTRTN September 2019 Month in Review: Ukraine Gamechanger

Born To Run The Numbers reviews of September, the month a whistle-blower dealt a potentially mortal blow to the Trump presidency:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-september-2019-month-in-review.html

Excerpts:
"The whistleblower report absolutely dominated the month, upending, in one fell swoop, Trump’s desire to move past the Mueller report; the Democrats’ desire to further the Russia investigation and other assorted allegations through ongoing investigations; Pelosi’s desire to avoid impeachment proceedings; the 2020 candidates’ collective desires to focus attention on their campaigns and the future; and candidate Biden in particular, who found himself at the epicenter of the controversy...
"Doubtless more will emerge in the coming months. But in the days following the whistleblower revelations the ranks of Democrats joining the impeachment bandwagon began to swell. Particularly notable was an op-ed by seven freshman Democrats, all with national security experience, all in “vulnerable” districts (the kind most likely to oppose impeachment) who signed on to an impeachment inquiry and stated that the allegations, if true, were impeachable offenses. Pelosi concluded she had no choice but to formally open the inquiry.
"The GOP is not exactly falling in line with Trump... what is most striking is the silence. Apart from Graham and Representative Jim Jordan, few Republicans have picked up the talking points from the Trump team and taken that message to the airwaves.
"The polls tell a story of America in flux. Most polls had previously shown support for impeachment in the 40% range, and opposition over 50%, but now there has been upward movement on the pro-impeachment side. A CNN poll has 47% now favoring impeachment, up from 41% in May; opposition to impeachment dropped from 54% to 45%. Morning Consult has similar numbers, 46% to 43%."
Posted by reggieandlee | Thu Oct 3, 2019, 01:11 PM (0 replies)

BTRTN: Trump's Reign of Stain is Plainly in Ukraine

Born To Run The Numbers on Trump's horrific abuse of power in the Ukraine, but urges Democrats to think carefully about exactly when to ratify articles of impeachment:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/09/btrtn-trumps-reign-of-stain-is-plainly.html

Excerpts: "There are smoking guns, and then there is the murderer who openly admits to having pumped a dozen slugs into the bloody, lifeless body lying at his feet, and then looks around at all his cronies, shrugs, and says, 'Hey, I didn’t do nuttin’ wrong...'
"Taken in full, it means that Trump’s DoJ, Department of State, Executive Branch, and just about anybody in Trump’s toxic immediate proximity all knew that the President of the United States had committed an impeachable offense ...And only one lonely whistle-blower had the guts to do anything about it..."
"No, this was not the isolated rogue action of the terrified thug who happens to be President of the United States. It was the concerted effort of an army of morally bankrupt enablers, sycophants, and turn-a-blind-eye lackeys acting in coordinated stupidity, corrupt intent, and malevolent abuse of power. It took a village -- of village idiots, that is. And it raises that age old question: how many dim bulbs does it take to screw in a Ukrainian?
"...Republican Political Consultant Mike Murphy...made this startling assertion: 'I can tell you this... one Republican senator told me if it was a secret vote, 30 Republican senators would vote to impeach Trump.' If true – if half-true -- this is the definitive statement about the the moral cowardice of the Republican Party. But Murphy’s meta-message was clear… if the evidence of brutal corruption in the Ukraine matter did not cause these Republicans to vote their conscience, nothing will...All of which must should be weighed into the mix as Nancy Pelosi evaluates her next steps."

BTRTN: Trump's Reign of Stain is Plainly in Ukraine

Born To Run The Numbers on Trump's horrific abuse of power in the Ukraine, but urges Democrats to think carefully about exactly when to ratify articles of impeachment:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/09/btrtn-trumps-reign-of-stain-is-plainly.html

Excerpts: "There are smoking guns, and then there is the murderer who openly admits to having pumped a dozen slugs into the bloody, lifeless body lying at his feet, and then looks around at all his cronies, shrugs, and says, 'Hey, I didn’t do nuttin’ wrong...'
"Taken in full, it means that Trump’s DoJ, Department of State, Executive Branch, and just about anybody in Trump’s toxic immediate proximity all knew that the President of the United States had committed an impeachable offense ...And only one lonely whistle-blower had the guts to do anything about it..."
"No, this was not the isolated rogue action of the terrified thug who happens to be President of the United States. It was the concerted effort of an army of morally bankrupt enablers, sycophants, and turn-a-blind-eye lackeys acting in coordinated stupidity, corrupt intent, and malevolent abuse of power. It took a village -- of village idiots, that is. And it raises that age old question: how many dim bulbs does it take to screw in a Ukrainian?
"...Republican Political Consultant Mike Murphy...made this startling assertion: 'I can tell you this... one Republican senator told me if it was a secret vote, 30 Republican senators would vote to impeach Trump.' If true – if half-true -- this is the definitive statement about the the moral cowardice of the Republican Party. But Murphy’s meta-message was clear… if the evidence of brutal corruption in the Ukraine matter did not cause these Republicans to vote their conscience, nothing will...All of which must should be weighed into the mix as Nancy Pelosi evaluates her next steps."

BTRTN 2020 Vision: Will Biden's Campaign Die a Death of a Thousand Gaffes?

Born To Run The Numbers just posted the latest installment of its monthly "2020 Vision" feature, which provides an up-to-the minute snapshot of the Democratic Race:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/09/btrtn-2020-vision-will-bidens-campaign.html

Excerpts:
"The headlines...Joe Biden remains at the head of the field nationally, with slightly lower support levels than last month, while Elizabeth Warren continues to climb, and is now tied for second with Bernie Sanders..."
"The third Democratic debate featured only ten candidates... Joe Biden came out strong in the debate but faded into gaffe mode, raising questions once again about the long term sustainability of his campaign. But he scored early on both Warren and Sanders over their 'Medicare For All' plan, and came out on the sympathetic end of a clumsy Julian Castro attack on his age. But Beto O'Rourke's passionate plea to ban assault weapons was the most powerful moment of the night."
"If the debate had ended after an hour, Biden would have won it hands down. When Julian Castro staged an inartful attack on Biden’s age ('are you forgetting what you just said two minutes ago?'), Biden survived it easily (the audience gasped), but the contretemps allowed other candidates an entry point on the delicate issue of Biden’s competence, which took up a fair amount of post-debate oxygen. And, Biden’s 'record player' reference was certainly one of the most replayed moments of the night..."
"It seems unlikely that this debate will shake up the polls in any meaningful way...But there was a signal shift in the debate, and that was Biden on the offensive, and attacking Warren directly, a first thus far. And the overarching question remains… is Biden built to last, or will his campaign die a death of a thousand gaffes? He has a huge reservoir of goodwill, for sure. But that might not be enough..."

BTRTN: Dem Debate #3... The Elusive God of Momentum Takes the Night Off

Born To Run the Numbers provides its analysis of the third Democratic Debate:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/09/btrtn-dem-debate-3-elusive-god-of.html

Excerpts:
"With Elizabeth Warren finally on the same stage with Joe Biden for the first time, people expected that the two would go toe-to-toe, eyeball-to-eyeball, dancing geek-to-geek, and that the 2020 narrative might be decisively shaped. By Friday, morning, would the charismatic, articulate, and folksy Warren finally displace Biden, if not immediately in polls, then most certainly in the liberal media tabloid romances pages that track the affections of the great god of Momentum? Ah, fickle god Momentum. If last night had been a prize fight, it would have been one of those brutal fifteen rounders that ends in a draw, blood everywhere, and no real change in the rankings. Much sound and fury, signifying nothing more than that this is going to be a long haul..."

"In truth, Elizabeth Warren missed her opportunity to capitalize on the momentum she brought into the debate. She receded into the background as other candidates seemed much more engaged, much more present, and even much more capable of connecting with the audience. All of Booker, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Klobuchar were in the game last night, fighting for every yard. Warren warmed up toward the end of the evening, but by then all but the most wonkish of policy nerds had begun channel surfing...

"I hesitate to provide a scorecard on this evening, because the bottom line is that very little in the polling will likely change as a result of last night. But here goes..."
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