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marylandblue

marylandblue's Journal
marylandblue's Journal
November 27, 2018

Democrat pulls ahead by 438 in CA CD-21

This would be the 40th pickup.
:large

Sorry for multiple edits, got confused with a correct read but wrong graphic.

November 8, 2018

10 takeaways from exit polls

Some surprising answers. Voters agree with Democrats on a lot of issue. A majority even think immigrants help the country. But you can see the basis of Trumps strategy - He won voters who thought immigration is the top issue by over 50 points.

Take away immigration somehow, and Trump loses his biggest issue.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/trump-house-midterms-exit-poll-takeaways.html

November 6, 2018

The Upshot: Small changes from polls can make a big difference

Two takeaways. 1) Small sample size and few polls means House polls can be off by an average of 8 points either way. 2) Dems in early voting are overrepresented compared to polling models, which suggests a systematic polling error on our favor.



https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/upshot/two-vastly-different-election-outcomes-that-hinge-on-a-few-dozen-close-contests.html#click=https://t.co/2oWXClIij5

November 6, 2018

Swing Left needs people to call rainy swing districts for GOTV

Go here to start calling from home.

https://swingleft.org

November 3, 2018

Report on GOTV in VA-05 (Cockburn-D vs. Riggleman-R)

I was in a very red part of a red district. Every Democrat I spoke to was definitely voting, no convincing needed. I saw many Cockburn signs but only one for Riggleman. 538 rates it a tossup but if what I saw means anything, this is a Dem pickup. Charlottesville is in VA-05, so winning here would be very symbolic.

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