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marylandblue's Journal
marylandblue's Journal
November 27, 2018

Democrat pulls ahead by 438 in CA CD-21

This would be the 40th pickup.

Sorry for multiple edits, got confused with a correct read but wrong graphic.

November 8, 2018

10 takeaways from exit polls

Some surprising answers. Voters agree with Democrats on a lot of issue. A majority even think immigrants help the country. But you can see the basis of Trumps strategy - He won voters who thought immigration is the top issue by over 50 points.

Take away immigration somehow, and Trump loses his biggest issue.


November 6, 2018

The Upshot: Small changes from polls can make a big difference

Two takeaways. 1) Small sample size and few polls means House polls can be off by an average of 8 points either way. 2) Dems in early voting are overrepresented compared to polling models, which suggests a systematic polling error on our favor.


November 6, 2018

Swing Left needs people to call rainy swing districts for GOTV

Go here to start calling from home.


November 3, 2018

Report on GOTV in VA-05 (Cockburn-D vs. Riggleman-R)

I was in a very red part of a red district. Every Democrat I spoke to was definitely voting, no convincing needed. I saw many Cockburn signs but only one for Riggleman. 538 rates it a tossup but if what I saw means anything, this is a Dem pickup. Charlottesville is in VA-05, so winning here would be very symbolic.

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Member since: Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:02 PM
Number of posts: 12,344

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