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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 571

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6 weeks out, what is your election predicton?

I'm tired of talking about the Supreme Court right now. So instead, let's talk about something that has recieved little coverage this year, the election. It's 6 weeks away, so what do you think the final results will be?

Here is mine.

Biden 353
Trump 185

Biden: 52.7%
Trump: 45%
Other: 2.3%

Do you think Trump realizes that McConnell is sacrificing him for his own goals?

Anyone who has been paying attention to Senate politics for the past decade knows that McConnell's ultimate goal fill the federal judiciary with as many conservatives as possible. Very little else matters to him, including his own political future. Now we are seeing polls showing McConnell's move to ram through a replacement for RGB and all of the other hypocrisy surrounding the Supreme Court are very unpopular. We also have seen the Democrats raise an absolutey unheard of amount of money in the past few days. Overall this move is likely going to have severe consequences for Republicans in November. I feel like McConnell is aware of that, he just thinks it worth it, as do the Republican senators who were bound to go down in flames this year anyway. But one key Republican, a very orange, bloated Republican who can't drink from a glass of water, is still unaccounted for. And that does make me wonder, does Trump have any idea that McConnell is likely sacrificing Trump to the wolves? Ramming through a new justice is all that matters to McConnell. His final goal has been acheived and Trump has outlived his usefulness. McConnell is basically sending Trump on a suicide mission and I get the very strong impression Trump is 100% unaware of this and is 100% unaware that he is not the powerbroker in the GOP. I wonder if he is ever going to figure it out?

Republicans likely handed the Dems an electoral landslide

Sure, there are a lot of people screaming online right now how Trump can now steal the election with impunity and the Supreme Court is just going to say "yup, you're a dictator now, congratulations". However I think those people are....talking out of their asses, to put it politely. The situation is bad with the supreme Court but it's not "the United States is dead and Trump is now Hitler" bad.

Regardless, the election is still coming up despite some people's fears that it somehow isn't, and it seems that the Republicans have handed the Democrats a landslide victory. Really though if you're McConnell or Trump you don't have any good options here when it comes to the election. Trump has been staring down a very likely defeat for months if not years now and the Senate is looking increasingly likely to end up Democratic. They could be honorable (obviously was never going to happen), likely lose the white house and Senate, and the Dems replace Ginsberg. Or they can shit all over everything, ram someone through, and lose anyway. Logically they are going to go with ramming someone through. Their days are numbered regardless.

I have heard some people automatically assume that this whole situation somehow benefits Trump and the Republicans electorally. But that really doesn't make since. The biggest reason why, as Harry Enten pointed out on CNN today, Republicans voters are already maxed on enthusiasm and Republican candidates are largely maxed out on support from Republican voters. They have been playing to the base and only the base for so long, that well is already dry. They can't squeeze anything else out of their base. So replacing a liberal justice with a conservative one doesn't help Trump or the Republicans.

But it does massively piss of Democrats and liberals, 5 weeks before the election. Maybe even some independents and swing voters who see the Republicans making a morbid power grab and being dishonorable. Look at the $100 million the Dems raised in 1 day. Biden was already putting up big numbers against Trump even though Democratic "enthusiasm" was pretty mediocre. What the Republicans have done is turbocharged the Democratic base at the exact right time for them to slaughter the GOP at the polls.

I know pessimism seems to be reining supreme right now so it is hard to believe but the Democrats have very likely been handed an landslide victory in November, the likes of which we haven't seen in decades.

Is a new balance coming?

Nate Silver brought up an interesting possible scenario on how this supreme Court fight and election plays out. Let's say McConnell rams through a new justice, therefore making the federal judiciary very conservative. Due to that, the democrats win the white house and Senate, because of democratic anger. The democrats get revenge, not by packing the courts, but by doing away with the filibuster and making DC and Puerto Rico states. And then we would probably settled into a new balance. The addition of DC and Puerto Rico as states means the Dems will have a significant advantage in the Senate, it will add some solid democratic seats in the house, and it will shift the electoral vote in favor of the democrats. So Democrats dominante the presidency, Senate, and to a lesser extent the house. While the Republicans dominate the judiciary. Neither side will then want to make any more moves for fear of losing their new advantage, at least not for quite awhile.

Possible? Likely?

Harry Enten: Unlike 2016, polling this year suggests Democrats more motivated by Supreme Court

Perhaps there is some hope afterall? This fight isn't over. In fact it hasn't even begun yet. In time the Republicans will live to regret this.


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/19/politics/democrats-motivated-supreme-court-poll-rbg/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Why don't Democrats and liberals revere Dwight Eisenhower?

I've been learning a lot of about Dwight Eisenhower, particularly his presidency, and I don't understand why Democrats and liberals don't claim him as one of their own? Yes I know he was a Republican but that was in a different era and it's not unusual for parties to claim past figures as one of them. Lincoln is revered by Democrats and not really seen as a modern Republican. So why not Dwight? Republicans largely ignore him these days, so why don't we look to him as an inspiration? Sure he wasn't 100% aligned with every aspect of modern liberalism. He was president almost 70 years ago. But he did push for increased civil rights. He was a strong proponent of the UN. He warned against the dangers of the military industrial complex. He was a key figure in the defeat of fascism. He was tough as shit, which I think modern Democrats could use a bit more of. He is a giant in American history and his legacy is there for the taking. Why don't liberals seize the opportunity?

Maybe we just shouldn't bother voting this year?

I've been reading a lot of posts last night and today about the Supreme Court fight. Many, many posts along the lines of "the Republicans are going to ram through a new justice and there won't be any consequence as usual", "this is going to rile up the Republican base and help Trump win the election", "the democrats aren't going to fight back, they never do", "Trump can now steal with election and the courts will let it happen".

It all sounds pretty hopeless. I guess the country is officially lost, America is no longer a democracy, the democrats are just going to roll over and let the republicans do literally anything they want, and voters are not going care about any of it. If that's the case, have we officially conceded the election? Is American completely dead now? If all hope is lost, should we even bother voting this year?

The pessimists have convinced me, I'm not voting this year. Why should I? There is no hope left and we have lost the war.

If that is our view of where America is as a nation, not only should be not waste our time voting, the US is not worth saving.

Unless the pessimists are wrong.....


Edit: Glad to see all of the pissed off comments telling me to fuck off. Maybe this party has some fire in if yet and isn't wallowing in depression and defeat afterall. And here I thought I was at a pity party. Maybe not?

I believe Republicans are making a massive miscalculation with the Supreme Court

McConnell has an almost obsessive focus on turning the courts into a Republican wet dream but I believe that is clouding his judgement in ways the Republicans will live to regret in the short term and the long term. Remember, all actions have consequences and the harder McConnell leans into shitting all over the unwritten rules of Washington, the more the Dems are going to push back. These things don't happen in a vacuum and there are a lot of potential, even very likely consequences that the Republicans are going to live to regret. Here are a few I see as being fairly likely

1. Republicans will go overboard with talk about outlawing all abortion in the country, taking away healthcare, and taking away other rights that is going to scare the shit out of Democrats and independents.

2. The obvious hypocrisy by McConnell, Trump, and most Senate Republicans is going to be a massive confirmation to a lot of people that the current Republican leadership has no honor and cannot be trusted. A few weeks before the election, they are going to be seen as even more like cynical, dishonest, corrupt politicians than they already are.

3. McConnell and Senate Republicans weren't willing to stay in session for coronavirus aid but is going to call everyone back for a Supreme Court fight than I'm willing to bet a solid majority of voters won't want until after a new president is elected. Trump and McConnell are already extremely unpopular. There is no way even 40% of Americans will say "I'm fine with them ramming someone through before RGB is even in the ground yet". For a party that is already seen by a good majority of voters as indifferent to death and suffering, this will increase the perception that the GOP are ghoulish opportunists

4. Democratic voters and those who want civility in politics are going to be massively riled up by this. Sure Republicans will be too but as we have seen with Trump's shitty approval numbers, the Senate Republicans shitty approval numbers, and election polls for the presidency and Senate, there are a lot more people fed up with the Republicans than who are on board with their shit. Leaning hard into doing what their base wants has been a disastrous strategy in this election. Ramming through a new justice will be like the "rile up the base" strategy on steroids. The more they rile up their base, the more the significantly larger Democratic and anti Trump voters are going to get.

5. In politics, the more you upset the balance the harder people are going to fight to restore said balance. Somewhat fringe positions even 24 hours ago, like packing the courts, getting rid of the filibuster, abolishing the electoral college are likely going to be far more mainstream. The Republicans are, in my opinion, more likely to lose the election now, not less. In 6 months they will be facing a democratic house, Senate, and white house with a progressive agenda that they are going to be powerless to stop. Republicans should be expecting a massive counter attack to their illegitimate conservative takeover of the courts.

6. Ramming someone through is going to be far more difficult than some people assume and I think McConnell shot from the hip last night without checking that he has the support to even do that from his own members. Only two more Republicans need to come forward to say no nominee before the inauguration and McConnell will seem like an ineffectual opportunist. So far Murkowski and Romney are siding with the Dems. The Arizona special election will add another dem seat in November. Seriously, its hard to believe but automatically assume the Republicans even have the votes.


This is a massive, massive political risk for the Republicans both before and after the election. The bolder they go the greater the chance they will fail. Republicans may win the battle but I believe they are quickly going to lose the war.

The worry warts are getting irritating

I have a quick thing to rant about so please bare with me. I donít know about all of you but the people that are extremely pessimistic about the election, despite how good things are looking, are getting very tiresome. I donít mean the people that say ďthese polls look good but Iím still a bit nervousĒ or ďI hope the polls are right but still, go voteĒ. Thatís fine, I understand the cautious optimism. No, there is another breed of people I see online who turn every piece of good news about the election into a 5 paragraph long rant about how screwed we all are.

For example, there was an article posted on reddit politics today which discussed the latest polls and how Trump seems to be heading for serious trouble with key demographics. High quality national polls were out today showing Biden up by 10 nationally and doing very well in key swing states. Things are looking quite promising. Sure itís not over yet but we seem to be heading for a solid Biden win. But there are so many people in the comments reacting with things like ďThis lead is no where near enough. Trump is going to everything he can to steal the election. The Russians are going to hack into our voting systems, people are going to be purged from voter rolls, there arenít going to be any voting machines, the USPS is going to be shut down. Trump is absolutely going to steal this election and there is nothing we can do about it. None of these polls matter. Trump is on his way to being a dictator. American democracy is dead. Anyone who thinks any of this matters is a fool. Itís over. Just you wait. America as we know it is gone.Ē

I get feeling a bit burned after 2016, even though polls and many experts were saying Trump had a real shot at winning. I donít personally remember ever encountering anyone saying the election was in the bag for Clinton or that Trump couldnít win. But I guess there is a sense that people got it way wrong in 2016, even if that is not really the case. Fine. And I get being nervous about President Mushroomdick fucking with things. But Jesus Christ, some people are going way, way overboard with the election anxiety and if anyone reading this is one of those people, please for the love of god, tone it down a tad, would you? The pessimism is becoming a real drag.

Yes, be weary about what Trump is up to and vote, but nothing wrong with a bit of optimism. Being optimistic isnít going to jinx the election.

Alright rant over.

New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For Trump

High quality polls are making the rounds again, finally. Now we aren't stuck with Rasmussen and Trafalgar we are getting a much clearer picture of where the race is. There have been a few political experts speculating that the bottom is falling out of Trump's support. There seems to be growing evidence that is indeed the case and that Trump is hemorrhaging support in key areas of the country


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/new-highly-credible-polls-offer-bad-news-for-trump.html
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