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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 571

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How are things looking so far?

It's still quite early but how are things looking? All I've heard about is high turnout in Philadelphia and high black voter turnout in South Carolina. Both sound good for Biden but I haven't heard much beyond that in any other state or in Republican strongholds. Are we doing well so far?

Is anyone else strangely calm today?

Unlike election day 2016, where I was a nervous wreck all day, I feel oddly calm and unconcerned today. In fact it is the most at ease and optimistic I have been on an election day since 2008. I'm aware Trump isn't 100% guaranteed to lose and that the stakes are insanely high but I'm just not that worried about it. Hopefully I'm not in denial and reality won't hit me square between the eyes tonight but I just don't feel like there really is much of a chance of is losing tonight.

Some might say "remember 2016!" but I wasn't one of those people who though Hillary had it in the bag (were there people who actually thought that?). It felt like it was going to come down to the wire and while I felt Hillary was more likely to win than not, I certainly wasn't calm or confident on election day. But today, I'm at like a 3 out of 10 in terms of stress. A bit of excitement over such a big day but not the least bit anxious.

I guess I am wondering, how's everyone else feeling? Is anyone else just in typical Tuesday morning mood or am I alone in that regard?

Two things to remember today

Just two quick things to keep in mind today

1. Republican turnout in this election will likely be high, that is something that has been expected all year, so don't freak out if there are reports of high turnout in GOP areas.

2. Don't pay too much attention to exit polls. They aren't meant to just be taken at face value as the final results. Despite what many people think, that isn't what they are designed for so don't use them as a preview of how the results will look. It's a massive waste of time.

Other than that, let's fucking do this

Win or lose, Joe did great

While I think Biden will win quite handily, I'm actually more at ease than any election since 2008, I do want to say that no matter what happens, Joe did a great job this year. With most elections I have followed, even the ones where our side wins, I always have moments of frustration with our candidate. That shouldn't be surprising. Politicians are human too and make mistakes. However, Biden has had a near flawless campaign. No matter scandals or "gaffes". His message has been dead on. His speeches have been great. His debate performances were amazing. The Democratic Convention was well done. Kamala Harris is a great running mate. Joe Biden brought together Democrats across the spectrum, along with a ton of independents and not an insignificant amount of Republicans. Joe and his team really stepped up this year to take on a disgusting, awful human being. In the end, the Democrats did a great job this year. I wouldn't have changed a thing.

With that said, let's fucking end this!

I got high and had a vision of election night results

I used the mystical powers of marijuana to look into the future while listening to Oasis...or something and here is the vision I had of the final election results. Lets see if weed can be used to see into the future, shall we

Biden: 53.1%
Trump: 44.8%

Biden +8.3

Electoral vote

Biden 391
Trump 147



What do we make of Texas?

I've mostly ignored the idea of a blue texas this year since it seems to be a pie in the sky dream for the Democrats. I remember in 2016, when I was living in San Antonio, I was excited about the idea of maybe, just maybe Clinton winning the state. Obviously that didn't come close to happening. So overall I've been a bit weary.

However, finally my interest is piqued again. The polls showing a tie or even a Biden lead there is definitely different from 2016. The voter turnout that will likely be millions of votes higher than 2016 is quite shocking. I can't imagine millions of new voters or people who sat out in 2016 are going all in on Trump. In other states, like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, people who didn't vote in 2016 but are voting in 2020 are backing Biden by 10-20 points. Why would texas be different? There is also a point I read last night night where Romney won the state by 16 in 2012, Trump in 2016 by 9, and then Cruz in 2018 by 2. Clearly the Dems are gaining ground over time. Polls from those years also show the Democratic vote was underestimated. So a Biden tie there could be a win...maybe. And of course there are sites like Cook Political Report calling Texas a pure toss up.


I don't know. What do we make of Texas this year? It is a mirage for the Democrats or is Biden actually going to win there?

Biden has huge lead among voters who sat out 2016 in key states

I found this on the New York Times today but since I'm one of those fools who pays for news, it wasn't stuck behind a paywall for me. Johnathan Martin has a long breakdown about the final state of the election. One part of the article that he was making a big deal about in a CNN interview this afternoon was this:

In Wisconsin, voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016 favor Mr. Biden by 19 points. They have a similarly lopsided preference in Florida, where Mr. Biden leads by 17 points. His advantage with people who did not vote in 2016 is 12 points in Pennsylvania and 7 points in Arizona.

Many of the those who said they did not vote in 2016 said they had already voted this year. In Florida and Arizona, more than two thirds of nonvoters in 2016 who were identified as likely voters this year said that they had already cast a ballot. That figure was 56 percent in Wisconsin and 36 percent in Pennsylvania.



I don't think I need to explain why this finding is a massive deal. The backlash against Trump looks like it could be massive and severe. No guarantees but I think we might have some huge surprises on election day (in the best way possible)


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-florida-pennsylvania-wisconsin.html

People seem to totally understand Trump's schtick at this point

I remember back in 2015 and 2016 during his first major presidential run, Trump could dominate the media narrative just by throwing out some outrageous lie or proposal. I recall when Trump said to ban all Muslims from the country that there was wall to wall coverage for like 2 days in the media about that issue. Steve Bannon said the entire goal of shit like that was to distract from scandals, obviously, but to also legitimize the fringe right wing bullshit. With the Muslim ban, for example, the goal (which likely worked to some extent) was to have people at least thinking "maybe that is one common proposal to deal with terrorism".

While we have been living through this shit day in and day out for 5 years now, including Trump's primary run in 2015/2016, it was hard to see more and more people catching on to this strategy. Every time Trump and Co went to that well, it was becoming just a little bit less effective each time. Now if we stop, take a look around at where we are now, I think we see that when Trump talks, most people have zero interest in listening. Trump and MAGA crowd, in the past 24 hours, have said things like "Bill Barr should arrest Biden", "the Democrats are stealing the election from Trump", "there is a late shift in support for Trump among women". All stuff we obviously don't need to unpack because it's all nonsense. But instead what is important is how little reaction shit like this gets anymore. You can still find right wingers screaming these things from the rooftops but the reaction from any media outlets that aren't ultra right wing Russian fronts is little to no reaction. If you look at comments from these stories on sites like twitter, Youtube, and where the stories are being hosted, most aren't along the 2016 lines of "Oh my god, that is ridiculous! Trump is the one trying to steal the election. Here are 10 articles to prove my point. We need to keep talking about this so people know how out of line it is!" and more like "uh huh", "I can't wait until this election is over", and "what is this moron rambling about now?".

Unlike 4 years ago, people know Trump is a liar and whatever crazy things he is saying today are best to be ignored. That is why in 2020, unlike 2016, none of Trump's insanity, his attacks, anything from his old bag of tricks have not moved the needle at all. In retrospect, his racist "law and order" nonsense from the summer was never going to resonate with voters because most had long since stopped listening. That is why his dismissive attitude towards the pandemic haven't caused most people to say "maybe the coronavirus isn't a big deal?", instead they say "Trump is an idiot, we are clearly on our own". That is why whatever "October Surprise" they tried cooking up didn't work. It is because no one believes them when they make wild claims and no one cares what they are saying. All of the things we worried about, that nonsense like Tara Reid, Hunter Biden, dementia, "just wait until Trump crushes Biden at the debates", "Biden is hiding in his basement!", and the million other things they tried this year failed to gain traction. Besides his most fanatical and die hard supporters, most people stopped listening to Trump years ago. Most people don't take him seriously and a majority of voters decided long ago that they were never going to vote for Trump under any circumstances.

People figured out Trump's schtick and they are done engaging with him.

What's Bill Clinton up to these days?

I realized I haven't heard anything about Bill Clinton all year. Kind of weird in a major presidential election. Where's he at?

538 at this point in past elections

I was Biden hit 90% pretty consistently all day, which is looking quite good, and that did make me wonder how that compared to how other elections were looking at this point on 538. It is surprisingly hard to find this info so I figured I would share the fruits of my labor.

2008: Obama 95.7% McCain 4.3%

2012: Obama 90.9% Romney 9.1%

2016: Clinton 64.6% Trump 35.4%

2020: Biden 90% Trump 10%
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