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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 571

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8 days to go: Biden's lead over Trump is holding, while Clinton's was collapsing at this point

Here is the newest article from Harry Enten. He's always worth the time to listen to.

CNN)The clock is running out on President Donald Trump's chances for a comeback. He continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden nationally and in the key swing states with just eight days to go.

But perhaps most worrisome for the President: Trump's clearly behind his 2016 pace. By this point four years ago, he was rapidly closing the gap with Hillary Clinton. No such advancements can be seen in the 2020 polling against Biden.

Right now, Biden is up by about 9 to 10 points nationally, depending on the average you examine. He is, importantly, over 50%. Biden's edge may be down a point or so from early October, though it is well within the historical average from the beginning of the year.


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/25/politics/biden-leads-trump-polling/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

White House lawyer helped shop controversial Hunter Biden story to Wall Street Journal: NYT

Source: The Hill

A controversial story alleging wrongdoing by former Vice President Joe Biden's family in foreign business dealings was pitched by Trump allies to the Wall Street Journal before it appeared in the New York Post, The New York Times reported.

According to the Times, White House lawyer Eric Herschmann and former deputy White House counsel Stefan Passantino were among those within President Trump's circle who had pitched the Biden story to Wall Street Journal reporters. Trump's allies reportedly hoped the story in the Journal, a trusted paper, would play in Trump's favor ahead of the November election

The story pitched by the White House insiders alleged that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was involved in his son Hunter Biden's foreign business dealings related to China and Ukraine. Herschmann and Passantino handed over emails and told the Journal that Hunter Biden's former business partner Tony Bobulinski was willing to go on the record with them.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/522706-white-house-lawyer-helped-shop-controversial-hunter-biden-story-to-wall

Prediction: Biden wins by a lot more than people are expecting

Let me say right off the bat, I of course don't have any secret insight or super special expertise on elections so take what I am about to say with a grain of salt.

With that said, I am going to predict that Biden will win by quite a bit more than people are expecting. I'm not basing this on claims like you see from Republicans that the polls are fake or "skewed" in some way. Instead I think the polls showing Biden hovering around 14 or 15 points nationally might prove to be the accurate ones and polls showing him around 8 or 9 are playing it too safe. Here is my reasoning:

1. Following 2016, many pollsters changed up their polling methodology to weigh heavier towards non college educated whites, or in other words Trump supporters. They did this of course to not underestimate Trump in places like Michigan, where they got it a bit wrong in 2016. I think however, that 2016s turnout models don't apply to 2020. 2016 was an anomaly and polls are somewhat overestimating the electorate being more trump friendly than it will be.

2. Nate Silver is suspicious that right wing leading pollsters like Trafalgar and Rasmussen are fucking with their numbers to force Trump's averages in the polls to be closer to where they want it to be. He doesn't think this is 100% malicious or that they are lying. Instead he seems to believe that these right wing pollsters want desperately for Trump to win and they are unintentionally finding evidence to prove their point. Also he thinks they are paranoid and that other non trump friendly pollsters are in the bag for Biden so they are releasing as many as their extremely generous polls to trump as often as they can to change the averages in Trump's favor. If right wing polls are indeed very inaccurate, which is looking pretty likely, and are way overestimating Trump then Biden's average lead could very well be understating democratic support.

3. Nate Silver also says he thinks his model may very well be too conservative right now. He said he doesn't entirely buy that Trump actually has a 12% chance of winning and that his model might be adding too much uncertainty to the projection which favors Trump.

4. The massive turnout this year will not be people turning out for Trump. Yes, Trump is going to get tens of millions of votes and Republican turnout will be high. However, experts think turnout will be between 6 million and 20 million votes higher in 2020 compared to 2016 (most likely about 12 million more). While I don't doubt some of those are Republicans, I think a significant majority are coming out for Biden. Between the pandemic, the economic collapse, the increased flirting Trump is doing with fascism and white supremacy, I believe a lot of people that sat on the sidelines in 2016 are now desperate for a "return to normalcy". I believe most of those extra 12 million votes are people that just want to be done with Trump and never have to deal with him again. And you have to ask yourself, what has Trump done to increase the size of his base or electoral coalition since 2016?

5. The massive amounts of money that Biden and the Dems are raising compared to Trump's campaign and the Republicans being nearly bankrupt shows that there isn't some hidden enthusiasm for Trump. Again, going back to point 4, if those extra 12 million voters this year were coming out in large part because of a "hidden Trump vote" then you would see him bringing in money like crazy and his rallies wouldn't be just 35 people all crammed together to make him look more popular than he is. Trump has his fanatical base, I don't deny that, but beyond that 35% of the country, no one else seems to be excited about the idea of a 2nd trump term.

6. Early voting turnout. Clearly the pandemic is affecting this quite a bit. Some people who would have turned out on election day during a normal year but I don't know if that entirely accounts for what appears to be a massive increase in turnout we are seeing in early voting amount democratic leaning demographics. Early voting among people under 30 for example is up some 1000% in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. First, I highly doubt they are trump supporters. Second, if people were happy with Trump or fairly "meh" on the democratic candidate this year (like in 2016) why the high turnout among Dems and Biden voters? If people weren't all that motivated to get rid of trump or wanted to keep him around, why bother voting early in such massive numbers? Why would people wait in a 8 hour line a month before the election to cast a ballot? If people loved trump and hated Biden they would what's the rush to vote for Biden?

7. Congressional district level polls are showing massive Biden leads. I left this point to the end because it is the least certain but might prove to be a critical data point that people are missing. Nate Silver talked a bit about this on their Friday podcast. He said that polls on the Congressional district level, some of which ask about presidential candidate preference while polling house races (those polls are not included in state or national averages therefore aren't taken into account by much of anyone right now) are showing a very different story on the election. Specifically a massive Biden lead. Far larger than the national or state polls. Since these polls aren't used in averages then they aren't susceptible to Trafalgar and Rasmussen fucking around, like I mentioned in point 2. District level polling in presidential elections is somewhat new and experimental in the context of polling models like 538 but there is some evidence that they might actually be far more accurate than national or state polls. If that is the case Biden's lead might actually be closer to 14 or 15 points.


Again, don't take what I am saying as gospel but I from my personal prospective, I think Biden is going to end up winning by a lot more than most people are expecting.

The MAGA crowd is living in a totally different universe from the rest of world

I like to lurk on right wing forums just to keep tabs on whatever nonsense the right is bitching about today. I find human behaviour to be fascinating so I can't help but take a peek at what the ultra right wingers are doing and saying.

Their grip on reality is typically quite tenuous but usually they are talking at least in part about the same things as the real world but typically with their own deluded spin on things. But lately I have noticed that it's like they are living in a totally different universe from the rest of us. I'm not sure what the breaking point was exactly, although I suspect it was a combo of the RNC and first debate not providing the major Trump comeback they were expecting. Instead of accepting that Trump's reelection is going down in flames, they have since crafted an entirely different reality. Here are some highlights of you're interested:

First, you need to understand that the polls are 100% wrong. Polls on the election, polls on how people feel about various issues, polls about either of the two candidates, all fake. Not just wrong but made up entirely by evil liberal media forces to make Trump look bad.

Second, 2016 has an almost mythological status where Trump minimally out performing his polls (by less than 1 point overall and not unusual in the slightest) had become Trump came back from impossible odds, made up a double digit deficit in the final few days of 2016, and that literally no one thought he would win.

Third, Americans don't care about coronavirus. Only fringe liberals care and again all to make Trump look bad. The vast, vast majority of Americans couldn't care less about coronavirus.

Forth, the economy is in amazing shape (look at the stock market!) and again most Americans are super happy with the state of the US economy.

Finally, the real issues Americans care about are: Crime in Democratic run cities, "cancel culture", and of course, the greatest threat to America, Hunter Biden's emails. You might have thought the NY Post "bombshell" had fizzled out like a week and a half ago and that no one cares. Wrong! According to Breitbart and The Daily Caller, this is the greatest political scandal in American history. While most mainstream news either never touched the story and even more mainstream conservative outlets have largely moved on since the whole thing seems too difficult to believe and even if true, people don't care. But that's only if you don't visit far right, quasi neo Nazi "news" sites. The claims on those sites about what's on Rudy Giuliani's....I mean Hunter Biden's laptop is become more and more extreme. Massive loans and bribes to Hunter and Joe from pretty much every country and group that the right hates "China, Ukraine, Iran" and of course you can't have a right wing conspiracy theory without vast claims of child pornography and sex slaves.


To summarize here is what the MAGA crowd is currently thinking: all of the polls are fake, coronavirus isn't real, Hunter Biden's emails are the biggest issue to Americans and constitute a scandal so horrifying and vast that the Democratic party is likely going to be wiped out, and Trump is going to win an historic landslide reelection. This includes Trump winning states like California, New York, and Illinois by large margins. Essentially the polls are off nationally by 30-40 points. Trump will likely win with 60ish percent of the vote nationally and Biden will be in prison before the end of the year.


Now I need a stiff drink and a shower. Excuse me for a bit.

The huge turnout this year

So they are expecting about 12 million more people voting this year than 2016. There is no way those are trump supporters. With the pandemic and recession those are pissed off people voting Biden. Trump has done nothing to bring in 12 million new voters to his side or even half that. Based on his low fundraising and small rallies, he is going to be absolutely swamped in November. I wonder if by a lot more than the 10 or 11 points Biden has been leading him in the polls.

Nate Silver seems to be saying the writing is on the wall at this point

Nate Silver has had a series of posts on twitter today and the impression I am getting is that he's feeling much more confident in saying that the writing is on the wall for Trump at this point. He is doing is usual hedging, a bit, but overall he seems to be saying that Trump is probably fucked.

Here is what the prophet has to say:

I know this point was made repeatedly last night including by me, but after sleeping on it, I wonder if people aren't still underrating the importance of the debate having been Trump's best remaining opportunity to climb back into the race and it seemingly having been squandered. Trump can win. It's mathematically possible that polls could be waayyy off or something could come from totally out of the blue. But there are also a lot of things working against him in the final 11 days. COVID cases are rising. He's way behind in $. And 50m have already voted....I think the takes were right directionally, but this is a weird case where a non-event (the debate probably won't change many minds) is a big deal and maybe people are underestimating it magnitude-wise. On top of that, the WSJ fiasco with the Hunter Biden story was probably the last chance for that story to be taken seriously by the mainstream/non-partisan media, for better or worse. There really is kind of a parallel universe of Trump-friendly polls that are on a completely different planet from the polling consensus. The polling world is not unlike the rest of the media in that regard.


I combined all of his tweets into one paragraph, including some clarifications he made to people's questions about what he is saying. But nothing is missing from what he said and these are not taken out of context. If you want to find all of the things he said today, you have to dig through some of the replies.


https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538

Any polls out yet?

It seems like we should have some post debate polls by now. Anyone heard anything? I'm aware it doesn't really matter but as a political junkie I can't go to bed until I get another hit of those poll numbers.

Frank Luntz Undecided Voter Panel Results

3 panel membet said the debate was too uncivil

5 said Trump was too angry

6 asked who the two men on stage are

12 requested a 2nd juice box

8 said they thought they were attending a Tony Robbins seminar but must have got on the wrong hotel shuttle bus at the airport

Why does the media still treat Trump like he's a normal politician?

A bit of a lunch time rant. Every god-damned day I see headlines or articles about how Trump can turn things around. How there is still time. He just needs to do this and this and this then maybe he will close the polling gap and win over voters.

Fucking stop.

The issue is that the media continues to treat Trump like he is a normal, intelligent politician. Why are people still expecting Trump, after all these years, to suddenly not be Trump?

Here's the problem, he's not going to follow any advice and the expection that he will is beyond ridiculous. The guy is not intelligent, he has no impulse control, he is surrounded by people who don't know what they are doing, and he can't admit mistakes. He's not going to suddenly start acting normal or take advice on becoming more professional and presidential.

For example, I keep seeing articles about how Trump should approach the debate tonight. He hasn't spent 1 minute preparing for the debate tonight. His first debate performance was a disaster because he doesn't know how to debate. His townhall last week was a bizarre shit show because he doesn't know how to answer questions, seeing as he is a total dumbass. You don't need a crystal ball to know how it's going to go tonight. He's going to do a shitty job and it isn't going to help his electoral position. Maybe he will scream. Maybe he will be a whiney downer. Maybe he will be a rambling moron. Doesn't matter. It's going to be shit because he is in way over his head but doesn't realize it.

So stop trying to give Trump advice. Stop saying "he just has to do this or this". He isn't going to listen and even if he did, he had no ability to actually act on any of it. He's a psychotic dumbass. There isn't going to be a turn around performance tonight. There isn't going to be a pivot. He isn't going to become disciplined. Why is it taking people so long to figure this out?

USC Dornsife: Biden +12 nationally

See, let's not panic about 1 poll. Bidens average lead among the 9 national poll out just today is 8.8 points. Up from 8.5 in all of the polls released yesterday. Everyone breathe and don't let 1 random poll ruin your day

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
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