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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 571

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Messing around on 538

It's a very slow, boring day at work, so I decided to mess around on 538. Here is some fun, random information I found about the state of the Presidential election:

Electoral vote based on which candidate is leading in each state:

Biden 368
Trump 170

Electoral votes based on states that each candidate has over an 80% chance of winning

Biden 275
Trump 123

Electoral votes based on states that each candidate has over a 90% chance of winning

Biden 255
Trump 104

Interesting states that Biden has a higher percentage chance of winning than Trump has of winning the election (Trump is currently at 13%)

Iowa: 43% chance of a Biden win
Texas: 31%
Alaska: 22%

Interesting states that Biden has roughly the same odds of winning as Trump has of winning the election

South Carolina:12% chance of a Biden win
Missouri: 10%
Montana: 10%
Kansas: 7%

Projected vote totals: Experts expect about 150 million votes in this presidential election

Biden: 80,250,000
Trump 67,800,000

Biden +12,450,000 votes

Trump Won't Travel Over Weekend, Ending Florida Rally Plan

Source: Bloomberg

President Donald Trump will remain at the White House this weekend, people familiar with the matter said, after he said he wanted to hold rallies in Florida and Pennsylvania despite questions over the stage of his recovery from Covid-19.

Trump, who told Fox’s Sean Hannity late Thursday that he wanted to hold rallies Saturday and Sunday, won’t travel until Monday at the earliest, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/trump-won-t-travel-over-weekend-ending-florida-rally-plan?srnd=premium

I'm shocked. This isnt the news I was expecting

Biden is as likely to win Mississippi as Trump is to win Pennsylvania

I was doing some digging around at 538 because I don't feel like actually working right now, and I found some interesting odds in various states that I think really puts the state of the election into prospective.

As I said in the title, 538 has the odds in Pennsylvania, the total must win state for Trump, at Biden 86% to Trump's 14%. Mississippi is at Trump 87% and Biden at 13%. So right now Biden is as likely to win Mississippi as Trump is to win Pennsylvania.

Let's look at some other must win states or states Trump is targeting

Wisconsin: Biden 84% chance, about the same as Trump's odds of winning Missouri, where he is at 87%

Michigan: Biden 91%. Trump is as likely to win there as Biden is in Kansas

Minnesota: Biden 90% chance. Trump is as likely to win Minnestoa as Biden is to win Alaska

NE 2: Biden at 74% chance of winning. Trump is as likely to win NE 2 as Biden is to win Texas

Here are some more out there states that Trump and Republicans have talked about flipping

Oregon: Trump has a 3% chance there, same as Biden's odds in Alabama

Nevada: Trump has a 14% chance, similar to Biden's odds of winning Montana

New York: Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning. It is more likelly that Biden would win Kentucky, South Dakota, or Arkansas than Trump winning New York


Donald Trump is risking a Covid election blowout

“Don’t be afraid of Covid” was Donald Trump’s message on leaving hospital this week. To say he was tempting fate would be an understatement. The US president could not know where the disease would leave him. He ought to know that the only way he could win re-election is by focusing on anything but the pandemic. The polls are unequivocal on that: a clear majority of Americans do not trust what he says about the disease. That was true long before he fell sick and is likely to remain true on November 3.

It follows that Mr Trump must change the subject or take radical steps to make Americans trust his pandemic-management skills. He has instead chosen to do something solipsistic — tell Americans the pathogen can be defeated by sheer force of will. This is a rash mix. It is further depressing his poll ratings on coronavirus while making it harder for him to change the subject. The fact that Mr Trump is insisting on going ahead with next week’s presidential debate when he still may be infectious only reinforces that. 

It should be no surprise that Joe Biden’s poll leads over Mr Trump has hit double digits in Florida where a lot of retirees live, according to one recent poll. His averaged overall national lead is now near double digits. Even if those margins were halved, Mr Trump would be facing a heavy defeat. It will take more than heroic willpower to reverse that. No US presidential candidate has entered the last month of the election with a deficit that wide and gone on to win.


Total Speculation: Pelosi knows Trump is in extremely bad shape

I have a theory and the more news we are getting today, the more I think it's correct. The Speaker of the House would likely have tons of inside information and people keeping tabs on individuals like Trump. That shouldn't be all that shocking. Powerful people get tons of information sent to them. Assuming that is indeed the case, Pelosi probably knows better than most people what kind of shape Trump is truly in. It is already extremely hard to believe that he has "beaten covid" as he and his supporters claim. In reality, even with the best medical care in the world (although he is obviously ignoring a lot of medical advice) Trump is still going to have a very rough time actually recovering from Covid.

So, if I'm correct, Pelosi may very well know that Trump is on his last legs, in one way or another, and that is why she is so comfortable to push the 25 amendment. Otherwise, if she was just shooting from the hip, it would be a suggestion that would carry quite a bit of risk without any guarantee it would help anything. Why take a risk with the election only 26 days away and the Democrats polling in landslide territory in the Presidential race, House, and Senate. If Trump wasn't any more of a danger than he usually is or if he was doing ok, then the Dems would be more than happy to sit back and let him implode with all of his deranged twitter screaming and green screen videos.

It wouldn't make any sense unless Pelosi knows something is up. Combine this with Carl Bernstein saying Republican Senators are getting freaked out because they think or know Trump is hiding serious health problems, and Pence canceling his campaign stops. I think something is up....

Biden to participate in ABC town hall Oct. 15 in lieu of Trump debate

Source: The Hill

Democratic nominee Joe Biden will take part in a town hall forum hosted by ABC News next Thursday on the night of what was supposed to be the second presidential debate.

The former vice president will instead participate in an event in Philadelphia moderated by ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos.

The announcement indicates that the second presidential debate will no longer take place as planned Oct. 15 after President Trump balked at the decision to make it a virtual event for safety reasons.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520244-biden-to-participate-in-abc-town-hall-oct-15-in-lieu-of-trump-debate

Donald Trump just got another excuse if he loses the 2020 election

I'm not much of a Chris Cillizza fan, although he does occasionally has pretty good analysis of political happenings. And today is one such day. Chrissy boy thinks Trump is looking for every excuse he can throw out there on why his very likely landslide happened. The excuse Cillizza thinks Trump is building in his mind right now is that the first debate was a dominating victory over Biden and moving the 2nd debate to a virtual format is part of a plot to undermine Trump. All obvious horseshit but I think Chris Cillizza is onto something here.

Remember that Trump views himself as a perpetual winner at life. He is incapable of admitting defeat or failure -- his multiple bankruptcies were all strategic successes, any deal that went south was because he decided it was a bad deal etc. -- and, therefore, when a loss looks likely Trump naturally looks for reason as to why he was somehow cheated, for example:

His fact-free assertion that 3 to 5 million people cast illegal votes in the 2016 election to explain why Hillary Clinton beat him by nearly 3 million in the popular vote. His blaming of Republicans who refused to run on his record (false!) for GOP losses in the midterms. His ongoing attempts to suggest that everyone involved with the FBI counterintelligence probe, which found that Russia sought to actively interfere in the 2016 election to help him and hurt Clinton, should be jailed. And of course, Trump's repeated -- and repeatedly false -- claims that the increase in mail-in-balloting in the 2020 election (due to concerns about Covid-19) will lead to a fraudulent election.

Trump's refusal to participate in a virtual second debate fits directly into that pattern of thinking: They changed the rules on me! Joe Biden couldn't survive another in-person debate with me! This is all rigged!


I think Trump is terrified and in denial

When Trump decided to leave Walter Reed, there were lots of theories as to what his motivation is. Some people say it's to pretend covid is no big deal to help his reelection, others that he is high on meds, and still others say he's too dumb to understand what's happening. Yes to all of those, to some degree, but I think in reality Trump knows exactly how this is likely going to end, he is terrified, and is now in severe denial. Even someone as dense and disinterested as Trump would eventually learn what the typical course of severe covid looks like. He's probably had hundreds of meetings and briefings about covid. Surely some info got through. So it's very possible Trump remembers that for some people the severe symptoms don't come on until the 2nd or 3rd week and he has already had pretty bad symptoms. Maybe he is terrified that in a few days, shit's likely to hit him very hard but maybe if he just takes these pills that make him feel better and he doesn't step foot back in the hospital that he will get through it....somehow.

I do think Trump is all sorts of fucked up on drugs right now but I don't think he really thinks he has beat anything and that he is absolutely terrified right now.

Biden's net favorability jumps to +17 with likely voters

I saw Harry Enten wrote about this on Twitter. I haven't found an actual article about it but this is from Fox's polling numbers released this evening. Bidens net favorability rating has jumped to +17. He's become a very popular politican. He had been at something like -2 before so this is a massive jump, it seems.


Edit: Better link


The Final Message of a Dying Campaign

For the last four years, Trump’s supporters and detractors have retconned his 2016 victory, arguing that, having won an improbable election, the president must be a political genius. In this school of thought, Trump’s psychotic tweets and staggering incompetence are rendered into perverse strengths: We are playing checkers; he is playing chess. This narrative deserved to die an agonizing death years ago and should now be cast aside forever. Trailing in the polls with only 30 days left before the 2020 election, the president has embraced a reelection strategy that is, even for him, profoundly stupid.

When Trump was initially diagnosed with Covid-19, there was some speculation that this could actually be good for him. The president’s haphazard pandemic response has received abysmal marks: Here was an opportunity to change the narrative. There could, some added, be a “rally round the bedside” effect, similar to what happened following U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s hospitalization for Covid-19 in the spring. “This moment is an opportunity for Trump to hit reset on his tone-deaf message on COVID that we are always on the cusp of seeing the definitive end of the virus,” wrote the editors of The National Review. “His lack of realism during the pandemic is one reason his ratings on handling it are so low.” Get the message right, this line of thinking goes, and Trump can save his campaign.

This argument assumed that Trump could adopt humility and use his physical weakness as a political strength—that he could even admit fault, recognizing his own failures and the importance of frontline workers and first responders. Voters didn’t think Trump was taking Covid-19 seriously; here was an opportunity to show them just how seriously he was taking the virus.

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