nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 US Senate Election-Vulnerable Democratic and Republican held US Senate seats.
Vulnerable Democratic held seats.
MO (McCaskill-D)Slight Republican
IN (Donnelly-D)Slight Republican
OH (Brown-D)Slight Democratic
ND (Heitkamp-D)Slight Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)Slight Democratic
WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic
MT (Tester-D)Lean Democratic
PA (Casey-D)Likely Democratic
VA (Kaine-D)Likely Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)Likely Democratic
NJ (Murphy appointee-D)Likely Democratic
Vulnerable Republican held seats
NV (Heller-R)Slight Democratic
AZ (OPEN Flake-R)Slight Democratic
TX (Cruz-R)Lean Republican
TN (OPEN-Corker-R)Lean Republican
UT (Hatch-R)Lean Republican
2017 NJ and VA Governors Election prediction.
NJ-Murphy-D by a 15 percent margin.
VA-Northam-D by a 5 percent margin.
2017 AL US Senate Election Prediction
Moore-R by a 5 percent margin.
2018 US Senate Election Rating if Democrats target every seat.
AZ (OPEN Flake-R)Sinema-D Slight Democratic 24D
CA (Feinstein-D)Solid Democratic 25D
CT (Murphy-D)Solid Democratic 26D
DE (Carper-D)Solid Democratic 27D
FL (Nelson-D)Lean Democratic 28D
HI (Hirono-D)Solid Democratic 29D
IN (Donnelly-D)Slight Democratic 30D
ME (King-I/D)Solid Independent/Democratic 31D
MD (Cardin-D)Solid Democratic 32D
MA (Warren-D)Solid Democratic 33D
MI (Stabenow-D)Likely Democratic 34D
MN (Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic 35D
MS (Wicker-R)Hood-D Lean Republican 45R
MO (McCaskill-D)Slight Democratic 36D
MT (Tester-D)Lean Democratic 37D
NE (Fischer-R)Raybould-D Solid Republican 46R
NV (Heller-R)Rosen-D Slight Democratic 38D
NJ (Murphy-D appointee)Likely Democratic 39D
NM (Heinrich-D)Likely Democratic 40D
NY (Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic 41D
ND (Heitkamp-D)Lean Democratic 42D
OH (Brown-D)Slight Democratic 43D
PA (Casey-D)Lean Democratic 44D
RI (Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic 45D
TN (OPEN Corker-R) Bredesen-D Likely Republican 47R
TX (Cruz-R)O'Rourke-D Lean Republican 48R
UT (Hatch-R)Matheson-D Lean Republican 49R
VT (Sanders-I/D)Solid Independent/Democratic 46D
VA (Kaine-D)Likely Democratic 47D
WA (Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic 48D
WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic 49D
WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic 50D
WY (Barrasso-R)Freudenthal-D Likely Republican 50R
2018/2020/2022 US Senate Election-term limited or former Governors running.
2018
FL(Nelson-D)Scott-R Slight Democratic
ME (King-I)LePage-R Lean Independent
MI (Stabenow-D)Snyder-R Lean Democratic
NJ (Whoever Murphy appoints-D)Christie-R Solid Democratic
NM (Heinrich-D)Martinez-R Likely Democratic
OH (Brown-D)Kasich-R Slight Republican
TN (OPEN Corker-R)Haslam-R vs Bredesen-D Likely Republican
Democrats lose IN,MO,and OH and pick up AZ and NV 45D 2I 53R
2020
AK (Sullivan-R)Walker-I Slight Independent
CO (Gardner-R)Hickenlooper-D Lean Democratic
IA (Ernst-R)Vilsack-D Slight Republican
KS (OPEN-Roberts-R)Brownback-R vs Sebelius-D Lean Republican
ME (Collins-R)LePage-R vs Baldacci-D Likely Democratic
MS (OPEN Cochran-R)Bryant-R Solid Republican
MT (Daines-R)Bullock-D Slight Democratic
WY (OPEN-Enzi-R)Mead-R vs Freudenthal-D Likely Republican
Democrats pick up AK,AZ,CO,ME,MT, and NC 50D 3I 47R
2022
AL (OPEN-Shelby-R)Ivey-R Solid Republican
LA (Kennedy-R)Bel Edwards-D Lean Republican
NV (Cortez Masto-D)Sandoval-R Slight Democratic
PA (Toomey-R)Wolf-D Lean Democratic
Democrats pick up PA 51D 3I 46R
2017/2018/2019/2020 Governors Election.-Democratic Governors
2017
NJ-Murphy-D 1
VA-Northam-D 2
2018
CA-Newsom-D 3
CO-Polis-D 4
CT-Drew-D 5
FL-Graham-D 6
HI-Hanabusa-D 7
IL-Pritzker-D 8
ME-Eves-D 9
MI-Whitmer-D 10
MN-Walz-D 11
NV-Sisolak-D 12
NM-Lujan Grisham-D 13
NY-Cuomo-D 14
OR-Brown-D 15
PA-Wolf-D 16
RI-Raimondo-D 17
2019
LA-Bel Edwards-D 18
MS-Hood-D 19
2020
DE-Carney-D 20
MT-Schweitzer-D 21
NC-Cooper-D 22
WA-Inslee-D 23
2018 US House Election -Democrats guide to majority.
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-25
4)CA-39
5)CA-48
6)CA-49
7)CO-6
8)FL-26
9)FL-27
10)GA-6
11)IL-12
12)IA-1
13)IA-3
14)KS-2
15)KS-3
16)ME-2
17)MI-8
18)MI-11
19)MN-2
20)MN-3
21)MT-AL
22)NE-2
23)NJ-7
24)NJ-11
25)NY-19
26)NY-22
27)PA-6
28)PA-7
29)PA-8
30)PA-15
31)TX-7
32)TX-23
33)VA-10
34)WA-8
Democrats have to protect
1)AZ-1
2)FL-7
3)MN-1
4)MN-8
5)NV-3
6)NH-1
7)NJ-5
2018 US Senate Election Ranking from Solid Republican to Solid Democratic.
WY (Barrasso-R)Barrasso-R Solid Republican 45R
MS (Wicker-R)Wicker-R vs Bohren-D Solid Republican 46R
NE (Fischer-R)Fischer-R vs Raybould-D Solid Republican 47R
TN (OPEN Corker-R)Blackburn-R vs Mackler-D Likely Republican 48R
UT (Hatch-R)Hatch-R vs Wilson-D Lean Republican 49R
TX (Cruz-R)Cruz-R vs O'Rourke-D Lean Republican 50R
MO (McCaskill-R)McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R Slight Republican 51R
AZ (OPEN-Flake-R)Ward-R vs Sinema-D Slight Democratic 24D
IN (Donnelly-D)Donnelly-D vs Rokita-R Slight Democratic 25D
NV (Heller-D)Heller-R vs Rosen-D Slight Democratic 26D
WI (Baldwin-D)Baldwin-D vs Vukmir-R Slight Democratic 27D
ND (Heitkamp-D)Heitkamp-D vs Campbell-R Slight Democratic 28D
OH (Brown-D)Brown-D vs Mandel-R Slight Democratic 29D
MT (Tester-D)Tester-D vs Rosendale-R Lean Democratic 30D
PA (Casey-D)Casey-D vs Barletta-R Lean Democratic 31D
WV(Manchin-D)Manchin-D vs Morrisey-R Lean Democratic 32D
FL (Nelson-D)Nelson-D vs Invictus-R Likely Democratic 33D
MI (Stabenow-D)Stabenow-D vs Young-R Likely Democratic 34D
VA (Kaine-D)Kaine-D vs Stewart-R Likely Democratic 35D
NJ (Whoever Murphy appoints-D)Whoever Murphy appoints-D vs Pezzullo-R Likely Democratic 36D
ME (King-I/D)King-I vs Brakey-R vs Ringelstein-D Likely Independent/Democratic 37D
MN (Klobuchar-D)Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R Solid Democratic 38D
NM (Heinrich-D)Heinrich-D vs Rich-R Solid Democratic 39D
VT (Sanders-I/D)Sanders-I/D vs Milne-R vs Adeloula-D Solid Independent/Democratic 40D
MD (Cardin-D)Cardin-D vs Faddis-R Solid Democratic 41D
CT (Murphy-D)Murphy-D vs Corey-R Solid Democratic 42D
MA (Warren-D)Warren-D vs Diehl-R Solid Democratic 43D
RI (Whitehouse-D)Whitehouse-D vs Nardalillo-R Solid Democratic 44D
DE (Carper-D)Carper-D vs Boyce-R Solid Democratic 45D
NY (Gillibrand-D)Gillibrand-D vs Webber-R Solid Democratic 46D
WA (Cantwell-D)Cantwell-D vs Johnson-I vs Luke-L Solid Democratic 47D
CA (Feinstein-D)Feinstein-D vs DeLeon-D Solid Democratic 48D
HI (Hirono-D)Hirono-D Solid Democratic 49D
2017 NJ and VA Governors Election Prediction. 2017 AL US Senate Election Prediction
NJ-Murphy-D by a 15 to 20 percent margin.
VA-Northam-D by a 0 to 5 percent margin.
AL-Moore-R by a 5 to 10 percent margin.
2018/2020/2022 US Senate Election-Democrats guide to a majority after losing seats in 2018.
2018
Democrats lose
IN (Donnelly-D)Messer-R
MO (McCaskill-D)Hawley-R
ND (Heitkamp-D)Campbell-R
Democrats gain
AZ (OPEN-Flake-R)Sinema-D
NV (Heller-R)Rosen-D
45D 2I 53R
2020
Democrats hold onto
DE (Coons-D)
IL (Durbin-D)
MA (Markey-D)
MI (Peters-D)
MN (Franken-D)
NH (Shaheen-D)
NJ (Booker-D)
NM (Udall-D)
OR (Merkley-D)
RI (Reed-D)
VA (Warner-D)
Democrats gain
AZ Special (OPEN McCain-R)Kelly-D
CO (Gardner-R)Hickenlooper-D
ME (OPEN Collins-R)Pingree-D
MT (Daines-R)Bullock-D
NC (Tillis-R)Stein-D
50D 2I 48R
2022
Democrats hold onto
AZ (Kelly-D)
CA (Harris-D)
CO (Bennet-D)
CT (Blumenthal-D)
HI (Schatz-D)
IL (Duckworth-D)
MD (Van Hollen-D)
NV (Cortez Masto-D)
NH (Hassan-D)
NY (Schumer-D)
OR (Wyden-D)
VT (Leahy-D)
WA (Murray-D)
Democrats gain
FL (Rubio-R) Soto-D
PA (Toomey-R) Cartwright- D
WI (OPEN Johnson-R) Kind-D
53D 2I 45R
2018 US Senate Election Rating
AZ (OPEN-Flake-R)Slight Democratic 24D Sinema-D
CA (Feinstein-D)Solid Democratic 25D Feinstein-D
CT (Murphy-D)Solid Democratic 26D Murphy-D
DE (Carper-D)Solid Democratic 27D Carper-D
FL (Nelson-D)Slight Democratic with Scott-R/Lean Democratic without Scott-R 28D Nelson-D
HI (Hirono-D)Solid Democratic 29D Hirono-D
IN (Donnelly-D)Slight Democratic 30D Donnelly-D
ME (King-I)Solid Independent 31D King-I/D
MD (Cardin-D)Solid Democratic 32D Cardin-D
MA (Warren-D)Solid Democratic 33D Warren-D
MI (Stabenow-D)Lean Democratic with Snyder-R/Likely Democratic without Snyder-R 34D Stabenow-D
MN (Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic 35D Klobuchar-D
MS (Wicker-R)Solid Republican with Wicker-R/Likely Republican with McDaniel-R 45R Wicker/McDaniel-R
MO (McCaskill-D)Slight Republican 46R Hawley-R
MT (Tester-D)Lean Democratic 36D Tester-D
NE (Fischer-R)Solid Republican 47R Fischer-R
NV (Heller-R)Slight Democratic with Heller-R/Lean Democratic with Tarkanian-R 37D Rosen-D
NJ (Whoever Murphy-D appoints) Likely Democratic 38D
NM (Heinrich-D)Likely Democratic with Martinez-R/Solid Democratic without Martinez-R 39D Heinrich-D
NY (Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic 40D Gillibrand-D
ND (Heitkamp-D)Slight Democratic 41D Heitkamp-D
OH (Brown-D)Slight Democratic with Mandel-R/Slight Republican with Kasich-R 42D Brown-D
PA (Casey-D)Likely Democratic 43D Casey-D
RI (Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic 44D Whitehouse-D
TN (OPEN-Corker-R) Likely Republican 48R Blackburn/Fincher-R
TX (Cruz-R)Lean Republican 49R Cruz-R
UT (Hatch-R)Lean Republican with Hatch-R/Likely Republican without Hatch-R 50R Hatch-R
VT (Sanders-I)Solid Independent 45D Sanders-I/D
VA (Kaine-D)Likely Democratic 46D Kaine-D
WA (Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic 47D Cantwell-D
WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic 48D Manchin-D
WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic 49D Baldwin-D
WY (Barrasso-R)Solid Republican 51R Barrasso-R
Term limited Republican Governors Scott-FL,Snyder-MI,Martinez-NM,and Kasich-OH are potential US Senate candidates.
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