nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalWhat is the likely scenario regarding the 2022 US Senate Election?
Democrats winning PA and WI or Republicans winning AZ,GA, and NV?
Democrats will win 1 Republican held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2022.- PA(Fetterman-D)
Republicans will defeat 1 Democratic incumbent up for re-election in 2022- Tossup between AZ(Kelly-D) or NV(Cortez Masto-D).
GA will be decided in the the 1/2023 runoff.
There is 1 Republican incumbent up for re-election in 2022 that has a 50 percent chance of losing.-Johnson-R. Johnson’s Democratic opponent is likely to be Mandela Barnes- the current Lt Governor who is a young black guy from Milwaukee. Is there going to be high black turnout in the Milwaukee/Madison area.
Besides Warnock(GA) and Barnes(WI). The other swing state that has a black Democratic nominee is Beasley(NC).
Battleground US Senate Races in 2022 that the Democrats are likely to win.
CO and NH have moved out of the battleground category. Bennet(CO) and Hassan(NH) will end up winning by a 7.5 to 12.5 percent margin.
The battleground US Senate Races in 2022 that the Democrats are likely to win are-
AZ(Kelly-D)
GA(Warnock-D) in the 1/2023 runoff. Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee Stacey Abrams supporters will produce a strong GOTV turnout in the regular and runoff election.
NV(Cortez Masto-D)
PA(Fetterman-D)
WI(Barnes-D)
In order for Democrats to have 50 seats before the GA general election runoff, The will probably win AZ,NV, and PA.
Since 2022 might be a GOP wave election year. At least 1 Democratic incumbent loses re-election. Kelly-AZ,Warnock-GA,and Cortez Masto-NV are in that category. Democrats will defeat 1 Republican incumbent -WI(Johnson-R loses to Barnes-D) and win 1 Republican held open US Senate seat- PA(Fetterman-D defeats Oz-R).
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) will be decided in 1/2023. GA is going to decide which party controls the US Senate in 2023.
Democrats guide to retaining a majority in the US Senate in 2022 id
Re-electing Kelly(D-AZ) and Defeating Walker(R-GA) and Oz(R-PA). Cortez Masto(D-NV) and Barnes(D-WI) are bonus seats.
Democrats are favored to win
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
Democrats will end up winning-
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)- The question with Warnock(D-GA) is does he win in November or January.
Cortez Masto(D-NV) and Barnes(D-WI) only wins if there is no Republican wave.
NC Democratic US Representative David Price is leaving next year.
Price was narrowly defeated in 1994 but came in 1996. Price’s Republican opponent in 1994/1996 was Fred Heineman. Had Heineman not made the 300,000 dollar income is middle class. Would Price be still serving in the US House?
Democrats need to win at least 14 US Senate Races in 2022.
Democrats are most likely to win
1/37)HI(Schatz-D)
2/38)NY(Schumer-D)
3/39)CA(Padilla-D)
4/40)VT(Welch-D)
5/41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
6/42)MD(Van Hollen-D)
7/43)OR(Wyden-D)
8/44)WA(Murray-D)
9/45)IL(Duckworth-D)
10/46)CO(Bennet-D)
11/47)NH(Hassan-D)
12/48)PA(Fetterman-D)
13/49)AZ(Kelly-D)
14/50)GA(Warnock-D) need to make sure Warnock-D gets above 50 percent in 11/2022.
US Senate Races in 2022 that the Democrats have a chance to win in order to end up with 50 seats.
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)MD(Van Hollen-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA(Warnock-D)
What are Mandela Barnes(D-WI) chances of winning the 2022 WI US Senate Race against
Ron Johnson-R,Scott Walker-R,Rebecca Kleefish-R,Paul Ryan-R,Sean Duffy-R,Bryan Steil-R,and/or Mike Gallagher-R?
US Senate Seats up for re-election in 2022 that the Democrats will end up winning.
Safe D
37)HI(Schatz-D) unopposed
38)CA(Padilla-D) vs Horton-D in 11/2022 general election.
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)NY(Schumer-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)WA(Murray-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)OR(Wyden-D)
Likely D
46)CO(Bennet-D)
Lean D
47)NH(Hassan-D)
Tilt D
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA(Warnock-D)1/2023 runoff
2nd scenario
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
3rd scenario
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)MD(Van Holden-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
US Senate Races that the Democrats are likely to win in 2022 by a safe to tilt margin.
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)AZ(Kelly-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA(Warnock-D)
US Senate Races in 2022 that the Democrats are likely to win by a solid to slight margin.
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D) vs Horton-D
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)WA(Murray-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA(Warnock-D)runoff.
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