nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 US Senate Election- Recent poll in TX gives Democrats hope in regaining control of the Senate.
A recent poll (Texas Lyceum) shows Cruz-R trailing Castro-D by a 4 point margin (31-35) and Cruz-R and O'Rourke-D in a tie (30-30)
If more polls show that Cruz-R is in a statistical tie race against the likely Democratic nominee, Democrats are likely to pick up the TX US Senate seat along with AZ (assuming US Reps Sinema or Gallego run and/or Flake-R loses the Republican nomination) and NV (assuming US Reps Titus or Kihuen run).
Democrats are likely to hold onto all of the Democratic held US Senate seats in blue states (CA,CT,DE,HI,ME,MD,MA,MN,NJ,NM,NY,RI,VT,VA,and WA),weak red states (FL,MI,OH,PA,and WI) and 3 out of 5 of the strong red states (MO,MT,and WV) IN and ND could go either way.
Democrats need to aggressively contest the 2017 AL US Senate Special Election like they are contesting KS-4 and GA-6.
GA-6 Special Election results for today,June 20 runnoff,and 2018.
Ossoff-D wins today's election with over 50 percent of the popular vote- he becomes the next Congressman from GA-6 Congressional district, the only Caucasian Democratic member of the GA Congressional election since 2014 when Barrow-D left.
Ossoff-D falls short of 50 percent-he has to compete in the June 20 runoff against Karen Handel-R. Ossoff-D wins the June 20 runoff or Handel-R wins the June 20 runoff.
If Ossoff-D wins today's election or June 20 runnoff election, he is favored to win re-election in 2018.
If Ossoff-D loses the June 20 runoff election to Handel-R, he could still win in 2018. Handel could lose in the Republican primary runoff against the most right-wing/controversial candidate who then will lose to Ossoff-D.
2018 US Senate Election-Republican wave (2002) vs Democratic wave (2006)
If 2018 midterm elections is like 2002 (Republican leaning wave), Democrats will lose IN,MT,and ND. -3D.
If 2018 midterm elections is like 2006 (Democratic leaning wave), Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018 including the red states in IN,MO,MT,ND,OH,and WV and pick up AZ and NV. +2D.
2020 will be the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
2018-There are 10 Democratic US Senators from Trump States up for re-election in 2018 and 1 Republican US Senator from a Clinton State up for re-election in 2018
Democratic Seats
1)FL-Nelson-D
2)IN-Donnelly-D
3)MI-Stabenow-D
4)MO-McCaskill-D
5)MT-Tester-D
6)ND-Heitkamp-D
7)OH-Brown-D
8)PA-Casey-D
9)WV-Manchin-D
10)WI-Baldwin-D
Republican Seats
1)NV-Heller-R
Democrats hold onto FL,MI,OH,PA,WV,and WI and pick up NV. 45D
Democrats will lose IN. MO,MT,and ND will go either way. Democrats could also pick up AZ-if Flake loses in the Republican primary and a top tier Democrat-Sinema-D runs. Worse case scenario for Democrats is a net loss of 3 seats.
2020-There are 1 Democratic US Senator from a Trump2016 State up for re-election in 2020 and 2 Republican US Senators from
Clinton2016 states up for re-election in 2020.
Democratic Seats
1)MI-Peters-D
Republican Seats
1)CO-Gardner-R
2)ME-Collins-R
MI is the weakest Trump2016 state, state is likely to go Democratic in 2020, Peters-D will win re-election in 2020 by a double digit margin. Democrats will also hold onto MN,NH,and VA. Democrats will pick up AK-if Berkowitz-D runs,CO,GA-if Ossoff-D runs,ME-if Collins is not on the ballot,MT-if Bullock-D runs,and NC.
Tomorrow is the Special Election in GA-6. Which candidates will finish in 1st and 2nd place?
What percent of the vote the 1st and 2nd place finishers will recieve?
Ossoff-D finishes in 1st place with 45 percent
Handel-R finishes in 2nd place with 20 percent
Number of cycles it will take Democrats to get 60 US Senate seats.
2018-Democrats hold onto
Solid Democratic
VT-(Sanders-I/D)24
NY-(Gillibrand-D)25
HI-(Hirono-D)26
CA-(Feinstein-D)27
RI-(Whitehouse-D)28
WA-(Cantwell-D)29
DE-(Carper-D)30
MD-(Cardin-D)31
MA-(Warren-D)32
CT-(Murphy-D)33
NM-(Heinrich-D)34
Likely/Solid Democratic
MN-(Klobuchar-D)35
NJ-(Menendez-D)36
MI-(Stabenow-D)37
Likely Democratic
ME-(King-I/D)38
VA-(Kaine-D)39
Lean/Likely Democratic
PA-(Casey-D)40
WI-(Baldwin-D)41
MT-(Tester-D)42
Lean Democratic
WV-(Manchin-D)43
FL-(Nelson-D)44
OH-(Brown-D)45
Tossup/Lean Democratic
ND-(Heitkamp-D)46
MO-(McCaskill-D)47
IN-(Donnelly-D)48
Democrats pick up
NV (Heller-R)Titus-D 49
AZ (Flake-R)Sinema-D 50
TX (Cruz-R)O'Rourke-D 51
2020-Democrats hold onto
DE-(Coons-D)41
IL-(Durbin-D)42
MA-(Markey-D)43
MI-(Peters-D)44
MN-(Klobuchar-D)45
NH-(Shaheen-D)46
NJ-(Booker-D)47
NM-(Udall-D)48
OR-(Merkley-D)49
RI-(Reed-D)50
VA-(Warner-D)51
Democrats pick up
CO-(Gardner-R)Polis-D 52
GA-(Perdue-R)Ossoff-D 53
IA-(Ernst-R)Loebsack-D 54
ME-(Collins-R)Pingree-D 55
NC-(Tillis-R)Ross-D 56
TX-(Cornyn-R)Castro-D 57
2022-Democrats hold onto
CA-(Harris-D)46
CO-(Bennet-D)47
CT-(Blumenthal-D)48
HI-(Schatz-D)49
IL-(Duckworth-D)50
MD-(Van Hollen-D)51
NV-(Cortez Masto-D)52
NH-(Hassan-D)53
NY-(Schumer-D)54
OR-(Wyden-D)55
VT-(Leahy-D)56
WA-(Murray-D)57
Democrats pick up
MO-(Blunt-R)Galloway-D 58
NC-(Burr-R)Stein-D 59
PA-(Toomey-R)Shapiro-D 60
2018 US Senate Election-Most Safe to Most Vulnerable Democratic/Republican Seat up in 2018.
Solid Democratic
24)NY (Gillibrand-D)
25)VT (Sanders-I/D)
26)DE (Carper-D)
27)RI (Whitehouse-D)
28)HI (Hirono-D)
29)CA (Feinstein-D)
30)WA (Cantwell-D)
31)MD (Cardin-D)
32)CT (Murphy-D)
33)MA (Warren-D)
34)NM (Heinrich-D)
Likely Democratic
35)MN (Klobuchar-D)
36)NJ (Menendez-D)
37)MI (Stabenow-D)
38)ME (King-I/D)
39)VA (Kaine-D)
Lean Democratic
40)PA (Casey-D)
41)WI (Baldwin-D)
42)MT (Tester-D)
43)OH (Brown-D)
Slight Democratic
44)WV (Manchin-D)
45)FL (Nelson-D)
46)ND (Heitkamp-D)
47)MO (McCaskill-D)
48)IN (Donnelly-D)
Tossup
NV (Heller-R)
Tossup/Lean Republican
44)AZ (Flake-R)
Lean/Likely Republican
45)TX (Cruz-R)
Likely/Solid Republican
46)AL (Strange-R)
Solid Republican
47)NE (Fischer-R)
48)MS (Wicker-R)
49)TN (Corker-R)
50)UT (Hatch-R)
51)WY (Barrasso-R)
2018 Colorado Governors and 2020 Colorado US Senate Race.
Democratic candidates for the 2018 Colorado Governors Race is US Representative Ed Perlmutter-D, former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy., and former State Senator Mike Johnston. US Representative Jared Polis is also considering the 2018 Colorado Governors Race.
Perlmutter and Kennedy or Kennedy and Johnston should be the 2018 Colorado Governor or Lt Governor nominee. Polis should challenge US Senator Gardner in 2020.
2018 US Senate Election- Red State Democratic incumbents facing top tier Republican challengers.
IN (Donnelly-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Hollingsworth,Messer,Rokita,Stutzman,or Walorski. Donnelly-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a narrow to high single digit margin.
MO (McCaskill-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Graves,Hartzler,Long,or Wagner. McCaskill-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a narrow to high single digit margin.
MT (Tester-D)Republican nominee is likely to be MT AG Fox or Former Governor Racicot. Tester-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a narrow to high single digit margin.
ND (Heitkamp-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Cramer. Heitkamp-D is favored to defeat Cramer-R by a narrow to high single digit margin.
WV (Manchin-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Jenkins,McKinley,or Mooney. Manchin-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a high single to low double digit margin.
All of those Democratic incumbent US Senators are going to get re-elected.
Purple state Democratic incumbents likely to face top tier Republican challengers.
FL (Nelson-D)Republican nominee is likely to be Governor Scott or US Representative DeSantis,Jolly, or Rooney. Nelson-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a high single to low double digit margin.
ME (King-I)Republican nominee is likely to be Governor LePage. King-I is favored to defeat LePage to a low double digit to landslide margin.
MI (Stabenow-D)Republican nominee is likely to be Governor Snyder,US Representatives Amash,Miller,Rogers, or Upton. Stabenow-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a high single to low double digit margin.
MN (Klobuchar-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Paulsen. Klobuchar-D is favored to defeat Paulsen-R by a low double digit to landslide margin.
OH (Brown-D)Republican nominee is likely to be former State Treasurer Mandel. Brown-D is favored to defeat Mandel-R by a high single to low double digit margin.
PA (Casey-D) Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Barletta or Kelly. Casey-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a high single to low double digit margin.
VA (Kaine-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Brat,Cantor,Comstock,Davis,Forbes,Taylor, or Wittman. Kaine-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a high single to low double digit margin.
WI (Baldwin-D)Republican nominee is likely to be US Representative Gallagher or Grothmann. Baldwin-D is favored to defeat either of those Republican candidates by a high single to low double digit margin.
The number of US Senate seats Democrats will occupy after the November 2018 elections.
Solid Democratic
24)CA
25)CT
26)DE
27)HI
28)MD
29)MA
30)MN
31)NM
32)NY
33)RI
34)VT
35)WA
Solid Republican
44)AL
45)MS
46)NE
47)TN
48)UT
49)WY
Likely Democratic
36)ME
37)MI
38)NJ
39)PA
40)VA
Likely/Lean Republican
50)TX
Lean Democratic
41)FL
42)MT
43)ND
44)OH
45)WV
46)WI
Tossup/Slight Democratic Lean
47)IN
48)MO
49)AZ
50)NV
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