nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2020 US Presidential Election- a recent public opinion poll from PPP has Trump-R trailing
Warren-D by a 5 percent margin (43-48)
Biden-D by a 14 percent margin (40-54)
Booker-D by a 3 percent margin (42-45)
Franken-D by a 5 percent margin (41-46)
Sanders-D by a 11 percent margin (41-52)
Biden and Sanders are both well known nationally, however both of these men will be over 75 years old in 2020.
A Warren/Franken ticket in 2020 could guarantee Trump being a one termer.
Julian Castro and Ron Kirk should be the Democratic nominee for the 2018 TX US Senate and the 2018
TX Governor's Race. Castro should run for US Senate, Kirk should run for Governor. Castro and Kirk were both big city mayors in TX, Castro-San Antonio, Kirk-Dallas, Castro and Kirk also served in the Obama Administration, Castro-HUD Secretary, Kirk-Trade Representative, Castro and Kirk running for statewide office TX in 2018 could increase voter turnout in the black and hispanic community resulting either Cruz-R(US Senator) and/or Abbott-R (Governor) in losing. Cruz and Abbott do not have the luxury of benefitting from Bush43's-R popularity in TX in 2002 and 2006, and Obama's-D unpopularity in TX in 2010 and 2014. Trump-R will be a liability in TX in 2018. O'Rourke should seek re-election to his US House district, then challenge Cornyn-R in 2020 for the other TX US Senate seat.
Which Democratic US House Member from Texas has an excellent chance of winning a TX US Senate Race
in this current Environment?
Henry Cuellar-first ran for US Congress in 2002 against Henry Bonilla-R,(TX-23) lost by a 52-47 percent margin, got elected to US Congress in 2004 by defeating Ciro Rodriguez-D (TX-28) in the Democratic primary by a narrow margin. Cueller could do well in less Democratic areas in Texas.
Joaquin Castro-best known for being Julian's twin brother.-elected to US Congress in 2012 in TX-20 a safe Democratic Hispanic Majority Congressional district.
Beto O'Rourke-elected to US Congress in 2012 by unseating long time Democratic incumbent Silvestre Reyes in the Democratic primary in TX-16 a safe Democratic Hispanic majority Congressional District.
Cueller and Castro are more well known statewide in TX then O'Rourke. Between Cueller and Castro, Castro is more progressive and younger than Cuellar.
Because TX is still a red state-Cuellar should be the Democratic nominee, he has a decade more experience serving in Congress than Castro and O'Rourke, He is more battle tested. Cuellar has challenged a high profile Republican incumbent Bonilla in 2002-a Republican leaning Midterm Election-Bush43 was very popular in TX during that time. Cuellar lost by a less than 5 percent margin.
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