nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalI just learned that Holy Joseph Isadore Lieberman works at a law firm that represents Donald Trump.
He worked at Kasowitz,Benson,Torres,and Friedman, a law firm in NYC that specializes in White Collar Criminal Defense right after he left the US Senate.Donald Trump is one of their clients.
2017,2018,and 2019 Gubenatorial Elections.
2017
Democrats hold onto VA (Northam-D) and pick up NJ (Murphy-D)16D
2018
Democrats hold onto CA (Newsom-D),CO (Perlmutter-D),CT (Drew-D),HI (Ige-D),MN (Walz-D),NY (Cuomo-D),OR (Brown-D),
PA (Wolf-D), and RI (Raimondo-D) and pick up FL (Graham-D),IL (Pritzker-D),ME (Pingree-D),MI (Whitmer-D), NV (Miller-D), and
NM (Lujan Grisham-D) 22D
2019
Democrats hold onto LA (Bel Edwards-D),and pick up KY (Lundergan Grimes-D) and MS (Hood-D) 24D
2020
Democrats hold onto DE (Carney-D),MT (Schweitzer-D),NC (Cooper-D),WA (Inslee-D),and WV (Justice-D) and pick up MO (Kander-D), and NH (Marchand-D) 26D
2018 US Senate Election Ratings.
Solid Democratic
CA (Feinstein-D) could retire or lose in November 2018 against another Democrat. 24D
CT (Murphy-D) 25D
DE (Carper-D) if Carper-D retires, Markell or Denn seek the Democratic nomination. 26D
HI (Hirono-D) if Hirono-D has to retire early, look for Gabbard-D to replace her. 27D
MD (Cardin-D) if Cardin-D retires, John Sarbanes-D will be the Democratic nominee. 28D
MA (Warren-D) 29D
MN (Klobuchar-D)30D
NM (Heinrich-D)31D
NY (Gillibrand-D)32D
RI (Whitehouse-D)33D
VT (Sanders-D)34D
WA (Cantwell-D)35D
Solid Republican
MS (Wicker-R)45R
NE (Fischer-R)46R
TN (Corker-R)47R
UT (Hatch-R) could retire or lose to Evan McMullin in the primary or general. 48R
WY (Barrasso-R)49R
Likely Democratic
ME (King-D)36D
MI (Stabenow-D)37D
NJ (Menendez-D)likely to resign early and be replaced by a Democrat appointed by future Democratic Governor Phil Murphy-D 38D
PA (Casey-D)39D
VA (Kaine-D)40D
Likely Republican
TX (Cruz-R)50R
Lean Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)41D
MT (Tester-D)42D
OH (Brown-D)43D
WV (Manchin-D)44D
WI (Baldwin-D)45D
Lean Republican
AZ (Flake-R)51R
Tossup
IN (Donnelly-D) will face a tough race against Rokita-R or Messer-R.
MO (McCaskill-D) will face a tough race against Wagner-R.
ND (Heitkamp-D) will face a tough race against Cramer-R.
Democrats won IN,MO,and ND in 2012 because of the Republican nominees self destructive behavior. Will history repeat itself in 2018?
NV (Heller-R)will face a tough race against Titus-D or Marshall-D. Democrats win the 2018 NV US Senate Race. 46D.
Democrats could win AZ if Flake-R loses in the Republican primary and Friend of Gabby-St Representative Randy Friese-D seeks the Democratic nomination.
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
If Russ Feingold wanted to get back into the US Senate, how come he did not run in 2012 when it was an open seat (Kohl-D was retiring), Obama was on the ballot and was favored to carry WI by high single digit margin. Feingold would have benefited from Obama's coattails. Feingold had a better shot of defeating Tommy Thompson in 2012 then defeating Ron Johnson in a rematch.
Russ Feingold then could have run for President in 2016 or be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Tammy Baldwin would have been the Democratic US Senate nominee in 2016 against Ron Johnson. Tammy Baldwin-D could have defeated Johnson in 2016.
2017 AL US Senate Election-Doug Jones-D
Former US Attorney Doug Jones who is best known for prosecuting the individuals responsible for the 1963 church bombings is the only high profiled Democratic candidate for the 2017 AL US Senate Special Election. Could Doug Jones be the Democratic version of Scott Brown (2010 MA US Senate Election)?
2018 US Senate Election- Top Tier Republican challengers that have announced they are running.
OH-Josh Mandel-R running against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown-D
WV-Evan Jenkins-R running against Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin-D
OH and WV are in the Lean Democratic column.
FL-Bill Nelson-D could be challenged by Rick Scott-R (Lean Democratic) or Tom Rooney-R (Likely Democratic)
IN-Joe Donnelly-D could be challenged by Todd Rokita-R or Luke Messer-R (Tossup/Lean Republican)
MI-Debbie Stabenow-D could be challenged by Fred Upton-R (Likely Democratic)
MO-Claire McCaskill-D could be challenged by Ann Wagner-R (Tossup)
MT-Jon Tester-D could be challenged by Tim Fox-R or Corey Stapleton-R(Lean Democratic)
ND-Heidi Heitkamp-D could be challenged by Kevin Cramer-R or Rick Berg-R(Tossup)
PA-Bob Casey-D could be challenged by Lou Barletta-R(Lean/Likely Democratic)
VA-Tim Kaine-D could be challenged by Barbara Comstock-R(Likely Democratic)
WI-Tammy Baldwin-D could be challenged by Rebecca Kleefish-R (Lean Democratic)
Democrats will lose IN and narrowly hold onto MO and ND. Democrats will win MT,OH,and WV by a high single digit margin.
Democrats will pick up NV(Kate Marshall-D).
Texas US Senate Elections-which seat Democrats are likely to win?
Cornyn's seat-2017 Special Election or Cruz's seat in 2018?
2018 US Senate Election- Most vulnerable to most safe Democratic/Republican held US Senate seat.
Democratic Held US Senate seats.
IN (Donnelly-D)Tossup/Lean Republican if Republicans nominate US Reps. Hollingsworth,Messer,Rokita,and Walorski.Lean Democratic if Republicans nominate former US Rep. Stutzman.
MO (McCaskill-D)Tossup/Lean Republican if Republicans nominate US Reps. Hartzler or Wagner. Lean Democratic if Republicans nominate US Reps. Graves,Long,Luetkemeyer, or Smith.
ND (Heitkamp-D)Tossup against Berg-R or Cramer-R
OH (Brown-D)Lean Democratic- 24D
WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic- 25D
MT(Tester-D)Lean Democratic- 26D
WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic- 27D
FL (Nelson-D)Lean Democratic- 28D
PA (Casey-D)Likely Democratic- 29D
MI (Stabenow-D)Likely Democratic-30D
VA (Kaine-D)Likely Democratic-31D
ME (King-I/D)Solid Democratic- 32D
NJ (Menendez Replacement-D)Solid Democratic- 33D
MN (Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic-34D
NM (Heinrich-D)Solid Democratic 35D
CT (Murphy-D)Solid Democratic 36D
MA (Warren-D)Solid Democratic 37D
MD (Cardin-D)Solid Democratic 38D
WA (Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic 39D
DE (Carper-D)Solid Democratic 40D
RI (Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic 41D
HI (Horino-D)Solid Democratic 42D
NY (Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic 43D
VT (Sanders-I/D)Solid Democratic 44D
CA (Feinstein-D/Garcetti-D)Solid Democratic 45D
Republican Held Seats
NV (Heller-R)Tossup/Lean Democratic 46D
AZ (Flake-R)Tossup/Lean Republican w Flake-R, Tossup/Lean Democratic w Ward-R.
TX(Cruz-R)Likely Republican 45R
NE (Fischer-R)Solid Republican 46R
MS (Wicker-R)Solid Republican 47R
TN (Corker-R)Solid Republican 48R
UT (Hatch-R)Solid Republican 49R
WY (Barrasso-R)Solid Republican 50R
2018 OH US Senate Election- The reasons why Brown-D could lose re-election in 2018.
Previous OH US Senators like DeWine-R and Voinovich-R have lost re-election or retired after two terms in office. The previous OH US Senators that served more than two terms are Glenn-D (4 terms) and Metzenbaum-D (3 terms).
Brown-D is not popular the way Glenn-D and Metzenbaum-D were when they were in office. Brown's margin of victory in 2012 was narrower than his 2006 margin of victory.
Brown-D could also win re-election due to the fact voters don't want to give President Trump a blank check.
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