37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)

Safe D
NY(Schumer-D)37
HI(Schatz-D)38
CA(Padilla-D)39
VT(Welch-D)40
MD(Van Hollen-D)41
Likely/Lean D
OR(Wyden-D)42
IL(Duckworth-D)43
CT(Blumenthal-D)44
WA(Murray-D)45
CO(Bennet-D)46
Lean/Tilt D
AZ(Kelly-D)47
NH(Hassan-D)48
PA(Fetterman-D)49
NV(Cortez Masto-D)50
GA(Warnock-D)51

AZ(Kelly-D vs Masters-R) 47
NH(Hassan-D vs Bolduc-R) 48
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R) 49
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R) 50
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) 51

Democrats are strongly favored to win
NY(Schumer-D)37
HI(Schatz-D)38
CA(Padilla-D)39
VT(Welch-D)40
MD(Van Hollen-D)41
OR(Wyden-D)42
IL(Duckworth-D)43
CT(Blumenthal-D)44
WA(Murray-D)45
CO(Bennet-D)46

Mandela Barnes-D or Sarah Godlewski-D?
Godlewski is a statewide elected official in WI.(State Treasurer)
Godlewski is leading Johnson by a 2 percent margin in a recent poll(Marquette) just like Barnes.

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)OR(Wyden-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Mandela-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)

CA(Padilla-D vs Meuser-R)
NY(Schumer-D vs Pinion-R)
HI(Schatz-D vs McDermott-R)
MD(Van Hollen-D vs Chaffee-R)
OR(Wyden-D vs Rae Perkins-R)
VT(Welch-D vs Nolan-R)
IL(Duckworth-D vs Hubbard-R)
CT(Blumenthal-D vs Klarides-R)
WA(Murray-D vs Smiley-R)
CO(Bennet-D vs O’Dea/Hanks-R)
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R)
AZ(Kelly-D vs Masters-R)
NH(Hassan-D vs Bolduc-R)
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R)
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) Warnock’s 2022 margin of victory will be similar to his 2020 margin of victory.
WI(Barnes-D vs Johnson-R) Barnes benefits from Governor Tony Evers coattails.
NC(Beasley-D vs Budd-R) Budd and Beasley are generic candidates. NC is a Trump state but his margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 has decreased.
OH(Ryan-D vs Vance-R) Ryan is a stronger candidate than Vance but OH is a Trump state. Looking at Sherrod Brown’s US Senate Races. Brown won his 1st US Senate Race in 2006 against Governor Mike DeWine who was then a fairly popular US Senator by a 12 percent margin. Brown’s margin of victory in 2012 and 2018 was at 6 percent.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)

The current mayor of Phoenix.
Phoenix is the largest city in AZ
Population of 1.6 million
Sinema will be replaced by a woman.
Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton don’t have to give up their US House seats if they lose.

2022- There are no Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. There are 2 Biden state Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. PA(OPEN Toomey-R) and WI(Johnson-R) Democrats are likely to pick up PA(Fetterman-D) and WI(Barnes-D). Democrats will end up with 52 seats allowing us to ignore Sinema-AZ and Manchin-WV.
2024- There are 3 Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024. MT(Tester-D),OH(Brown-D) and WV(Manchin-D). Tester and Brown will be saved by high turnout with the Democratic base. If Democrats want to replace Sinema with a Democrat, They have better chance with Kate Gallego-D. The current mayor of Phoenix and Ruben’s ex-wife. AZ will still have a female Democratic US Senator. Democratic will lose 1 seat.
2026- The battleground US Senate seats are going to be in
GA-Ossoff-D if Kemp gets re-elected in 2022 and runs for the US Senate in 2026.
ME-Collins-R if Collins retires and/or Golden is the Democratic nominee.
NC-Tillis-R if Jeff Jackson runs.