GA(McBath-D vs Boudreaux-D)McBath-D
IL(Newman-D vs Casten-D)Newman-D
MI(Levin-D vs Stevens-D)Levin-D
NY(Nadler-D vs Maloney-D)Nadler-D
CA(Roybal Allard-D vs Lowenthal-D are both leaving and will be replaced by one Democrat.
MI(Tlaib-D vs Lawrence-D)Tlaib-D
CA(Harder-D vs McNerney-D)Harder-D

Winner in the 2022 D incumbent vs R incumbent US House Race.
FL(Dunn-R vs Lawson-D)Dunn-R
TX(Gonzalez-D vs Flores-R) Gonzalez.-D

New/open seats that the Democrats will win.
CA-13
IL-13
MI-13
NY-18
NC-14
OR-6
TX-15
TX-35

0

Democratic US House seats likely to go Republican.
AZ-2
AZ-6
FL-7
FL-13
IA-3
KS-3
ME-2
NH-1
NJ-7
NY-19
OH-9
OH-13
PA-7
PA-8
PA-17
TN-5
VA-2
WI-3

-18

US House seats the Democrats have to pickup
CA-22
CA-27
CA-45
MI-3
NM-2
NY-25
OH-1

-11

Boudreaux lost and incumbent vs incumbent primary election to fellow Democrat Lucy McBath. If Boudreaux wants to get back in GA politics, she runs for a seat in the state legislature or run for statewide office- and office that Stacy Abrams, Lucy McBath, and Nikema Williams does not run for.

WI is the 2nd Republican held US Senate up for re-election in 2022 that the Democrats are likely to pick up right after PA and right before NC and OH. Democrats have a top tier candidates in the WI US Senate Race- Lt Governor Mandela Barnes. Are they waiting after the primary?

Which US Senate seat are the Democrats more likely to win?

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)VT(Welch-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CA(Padilla-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

Scenario 1- Biden/Harris wins in 2024. Biden is unable to run in 2028 so Harris is likely to be the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee.
Scenario 2- Biden/Harris loses in 2024. Harris is likely to be the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee like Mondale was in 1984.

Harris’ VP runningmate is going to be a progressive white guy that has blue collar roots.
Mark Kelly(AZ)
Jon Ossoff(GA)
John Fetterman(PA)
Sherrod Brown(OH) will be on the list if Democrats win the OH Governors Election in 2026.
Democrats will win the 2022 Governors election in AZ,GA and PA. Katie Hobbs-AZ,Stacey Abrams and Josh Shapiro-PA.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)

Brnovich,Lamon,or Masters?

I expect Democrats to win AZ,CO,PA,and WA by a low double/high single digit margin.
Democrats will win NV and NH by a narrow to high single digit margin.
Democrats win GA in the 1/2023 runoff by a narrow to high single digit margin.
Democrats will win WI,NC,and OH by a narrow margin.

Which is likely to happen?
Kelly/Warnock
Kelly/Fetterman
Warnock/Kelly
Warnock/Fetterman
Fetterman/Kelly
Fetterman/Warnock

A Kelly/Warnock or Warnock/Kelly ticket will be an Astronaut/Preacher ticket. Gabby Giffords becomes 1st or 2nd lady.