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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
July 7, 2023

Did Antonio Delgado/Pat Ryan(D-NY) represent areas that are currently in the new NY-19?

Pat Ryan should have ran in the NY-19
Sean Maloney should have ran in the NY-18
Mondaire Jones should have ran in the NY-17
Why did the NY state legislature targeted Carolyn Maloney/Jerrold Nadler for Dan Goldman.

July 6, 2023

The winner of the 2024 US Senate Elections in battleground seats.

AZ(Gallego-D vs Lake-R vs Sinema-I) Gallego-D
FL(Grayson-D vs Scott-R) Scott-R
MI(Slotkin-D vs Snyder-R) Slotkin-D
MO(Kunce-D vs Hawley-R) Hawley-R
MT(Tester-D vs Rosendale-R) Tester-D
NV(Rosen-D vs Marchant-R) Rosen-D
OH(Brown-D vs Moreno-R) Brown-D
PA(Casey-D vs McCormick-R) Casey-D
TX(Allred-D vs Cruz-R) Cruz-R
VA(Kaine-D vs Parkinson-R) Kaine-D
WA(Cantwell-D vs Herrera Beutler-R)Cantwell-D
WV(Manchin-D vs Justice-R)Justice-R
WI(Baldwin-D vs Clarke-R) Baldwin-D

WA is safe Democratic if Herrera Beutler-R does not run. Does Herrera Beutler run for the US Senate or the US House?

July 5, 2023

Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2026 that Democrats are likely to win.

AK(Sullivan-R vs Peltola-D)
IA(Ernst-R vs Sand-D)
KY(McConnell-R vs Beasher-D)
LA(Cassidy-R vs BelEdwards-D)
ME(Collins-R vs Golden-D)
NC(Tillis-R vs Cooper-D/Jackson-D/Nickel-D)
TX(Cornyn-R vs Fletcher-D)

2028 Democrats will pick up
NC(Budd-R vs Jackson-D or Nickel-D)
OH(Vance-R vs Landsman-D or Sykes-D)
WI(Johnson-R vs Rodriguez-D,Godlewski-D,or Kaul-D).

2024
MO(Hawley-R vs Kunce-D)
TX(Cruz-R vs Allred-D)

Democrats will end up with both
ME(King-I/Golden-D)
NC(Jackson-D/Nickel-D)
OH(Brown-D/Landsman-D)
TX(Allred-D/Fletcher-D)
WI(Baldwin-D/Rodriguez-D)

Democrats will have 2 US Senate seats in
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DE
GA
HI
IL
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
OH
OR
PA
RI
TX
VT
VA
WA
WI
1 seat in MT

57D 43R

July 4, 2023

NC(Tillis-R) is the only US Senate seat up for re-election in 2026 that is likely to change parties.

NC is a swing state. Tillis-R won all of his NC US Senate Elections(2014 and 2020) by a less than 2 percent margin. The Democratic nominee for NC Governor(Josh Stein-D) will get elected in 2024. The Democratic candidates for the 2026 NC US Senate Election will be Roy Cooper,Jeff Jackson,or Wiley Nickel.

Republicans will hold onto
AL(Tubberville-R)
AK(Sullivan-R)
AR(Cotton-R)
ID(Risch-R)
IA(Ernst-R)
KS(Marshall-R)
KY(McConnell-R)
LA(Cassidy-R)
ME(Collins-R)
MS(Hyde Smith-R)
MT(Daines-R)
NE(Ricketts-R)
OK(McMullin-R)
SC(Graham-R)
SD(Rounds-R)
TN(Hagerty-R)
TX(Cornyn-R)
WV(Moore Capito-R)
WY(Lummis-R)

Democrats will hold onto
CO(Hickenlooper-D)
DE(Coons-D)
GA(Ossoff-D)
IL(Durbin-D)
MA(Markey-D)
MI(Peters-D)
MN(Smith-D)
NH(Shaheen-D)
NJ(Booker-D)
NM(Lujan-D)
OR(Merkley-D)
RI(Reed-D)
VA(Warner-D)

July 4, 2023

The frontrunner for the 2026 IL US Senate Democratic nomination if Durbin does not seek re-election.

Kwame Raoul?
Susana Mendoza?
Mike Frerichs?

Raoul has 14 years legislative experience. IL State Senate(11/2004-1/2019)
Mendoza has 10 years legislative experience. IL State House of Representative(1/2001-5/2011)
Frerichs has 8 years legislative experience. IL State Senate(1/2007-1/2015)

Raoul is going to get endorsements from Barack Obama,Brandon Johnson,and Toni Preckwinkle.
Raoul is one of the high profiled elected officials in IL that helped Brandon Johnson get elected Mayor of Chicago.
Raoul is popular with the Chicago/Cook County Democratic Party establishment.

July 4, 2023

If Heinrich(D-NM) gets elected Governor of NM in 2026, who does he appoint to his US Senate seat?

Outgoing Lt Governor Howie Morales?
NM-1CD US Rep. Melanie Stansbury?

July 4, 2023

IL AG Kwame Raoul will be the next US Senator from IL in 2026 if Durbin decides not to run.

1)Statewide Elected official.
2)Will get endorsement from Barack Obama(former IL state Senator,US Senator,US President) and Brandon Johnson(current Mayor of Chicago who Raoul endorsed in 2023).
Raoul elected to a 1st full 4 year term for IL State Senatorin 2006, re-elected in 2010,re-elected in 2012 and 2016,
Elected IL Attorney General in 2018 and re-elected in 2022.

July 3, 2023

Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2026.

CO(Hickenlooper-D) elected in 2020- runs for another term in 2026.
DE(Coons-D) elected in 2010 special, re-elected in 2014 and 2020- runs for another term in 2026.
GA(Ossoff-D) elected in 2020- runs for another term in 2026.
IL(Durbin-D) elected in 1996,re-elected in 2002,2008,2014,and 2020, Likely Retirement.
Susana Mendoza statewide elected official. Comptroller
MA(Markey-D) elected in 2013 special, re-elected in 2014 and 2020, Likely Retiremant.
Andrea Campbell-D statewide elected official. Attorney General
MI(Peters-D) elected in 2014,re-elected in 2020- runs for another term in 2026.
MN(Smith-D) elected in 2018 special, re-elected in 2020- runs for another term in 2026.
NH(Shaheen-D) elected in 2008, re-elected in 2014 and 2020. runs for another term in 2026.
NJ(Booker-D) elected in 2013 special, re-elected in 2014 and 2020. runs another term in 2026.
NM(Lujan-D) elected in 2020, runs for another term in 2026.
OR(Merkley-D) elected in 2008, re-elected in 2014 and 2020, runs for another term in 2026.
RI(Reed-D) elected in 1996, re-elected in 2002,2008,2014,and 2020, Likely Retirement.
Sabina Matos- Current US House Member, Former Lt Governor.
VA(Warner-D) elected in 2008,re-elected in 2014 and 2020, runs for another term.


July 3, 2023

If Durbin(D-IL) does not seek re-election in 2026, Who will be the 4th black US Senator from IL?

Juliana Stratton-D?
Kwame Raoul-D?
Lauren Underwood-D?
Kwame Raoul-D is favored because he has won two statewide elections in IL and is good friends with the Obama’s.

Who will be the 3rd female US Senator from IL?
Juliana Stratton-D?
Susana Mendoza-D?
Lauren Underwood-D?
Susana Mendoza-D is favored because she has won three statewide elections in IL.

Susana Mendoza will be the next US Senator from IL.
Mendoza won
6 elections for the IL state house(2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,and 2010)
2 elections for the Chicago city clerk(2011 and 2015)
3 elections for IL Comptroller(2016,2018,and 2022)
Mendoza won 1 election for IL state house 1998 and 1 election for Chicago Mayor 2019.



July 3, 2023

2026 IL US Senate Election Democratic nominee if Durbin does not seek re-election and Pritzker runs

for another term for Governor.
1)Attorney General Kwame Raoul-D
2)Comptroller Susana Mendoza-D.

Both Raoul-D and Mendoza-D are statewide elected officials.

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