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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
July 29, 2017

2020 US Senate Election Prediction if popular sitting or former Democratic governors run.

AK-Sullivan-R vs Walker-I/Tossup Democratic
CO-Gardner-R vs Hickenlooper-D/Lean Democratic
LA-Cassidy-R vs Bel Edwards-D/Tossup Democratic
MT-Daines-R vs Bullock-D/Tossup Democratic
NC-Thillis-R vs Cooper-D/Lean Democratic
WV-Capito-R vs Tomblin-D/Tossup Democratic.
Democrats will pick up AZ special and ME-if Collins-R retires.

July 28, 2017

2018 and 2020 US Senate Election prediction.

2017 Special
AL (Strange-R)
Likely Republican
2018
AZ (Flake-R)
Lean Republican with Flake-R
Lean Democratic with Ward-R
CA (Feinstein-D)
Solid Democratic
CT (Murphy-D)
Solid Democratic
DE (Carper-D)
Solid Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)
Lean Democratic with Scott-R
Likely Democratic without Scott-R
HI (Hirono-D)
Solid Democratic
IN (Donnelly-D)
Tossup with Messer-R or Rokita-R
Lean Democratic without Messer-R or Rokita-R
ME (King-I/D)
Solid Independent Democratic
MD (Cardin-D)
Solid Democratic
MA (Warren-D)
Solid Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)
Likely Democratic
MN (Klobuchar-D)
Solid Democratic
MS (Wicker-R)
Solid Republican
MO (McCaskill-D)
Tossup with Hawley-R
Lean Democratic without Hawley-R
MT (Tester-R)
Lean Democratic with Rosendale-R or Stapleton-R
Likely Democratic without Rosendale-R or Stapleton-R
NE (Fischer-R)
Solid Democratic
NV (Heller-R)
Tossup Democratic
NJ (Whoever replaces Menendez-D)
Likely Democratic
NM (Heinrich-D)
Likely Democratic
NY (Gillibrand-D)
Solid Democratic
ND (Heitkamp-D)
Lean Democratic with Berg-R or Cramer-R
Likely Democratic without Berg-R or Cramer-R
OH (Brown-D)
Lean Democratic
PA (Casey-D)
Likely Democratic
RI (Whitehouse-D)
Solid Democratic
TN (Corker-R)
Solid Republican
TX (Cruz-R)
Lean Republican
UT (Hatch-R)
Solid Republican
VT (Sanders-I/D)
Solid Independent/Democratic
VA (Kaine-D)
Likely Democratic
WA (Cantwell-D)
Solid Democratic
WV (Manchin-D)
Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)
Lean Democratic
WY (Barrasso-R)
Solid Republican
Democrats pick up NV
Republicans pick up IN
2020
AL (Whoever wins the 2017 Special Election-R)
Solid Republican
AK (Sullivan-R)
Likely Republican
AZ Special
Tossup Democratic with McSally-R
Lean Democratic without Ward-R
AR (Cotton-R)
Solid Republican
CO (Gardner-R)
Tossup Democratic
DE (Coons-D)
Solid Democratic
GA (Perdue-R)
Lean Republican
ID (Risch-R)
Solid Republican
IL (Durbin-D)
Solid Democratic
IA (Ernst-R)
Lean Republican
KS (Roberts-R)
Solid Republican
KY (McConnell-R)
Likely Republican
LA (Cassidy-R)
Solid Republican
ME(Collins-R)
Lean Republican with Collins-R
Tossup Republican with Poliquin-R
MA (Markey-D)
Solid Democratic
MI (Peters-D)
Likely Democratic
MN (Franken-D)
Likely Democratic
MS (Cochran-R)
Solid Republican
MT (Daines-R)
Tossup Republican with Bullock-D
Lean Republican without Bullock-D
NE (Sasse-R)
Solid Republican
NH (Shaheen-D)
Lean Democratic
NJ (Booker-D)
Solid Democratic
NM (Udall-D)
Solid Democratic
NC (Thillis-R)
Tossup Democratic
OK (Inhofe-R)
Solid Republican
OR (Merkley-D)
Solid Democratic
RI (Reed-D)
Solid Democratic
SC (Graham-R)
Solid Republican
SD (Rounds-R)
Solid Republican
TN (Alexander-R)
Solid Republican
TX(Cornyn-R)
Lean Republican
VA (Warner-D)
Likely Democratic
WV (Capito-R)
Solid Republican
WY (Enzi-R)
Solid Republican
Democrats pick up AZ Special,CO,and NC.







July 27, 2017

2018 and 2020 US Senate Election -most vulnerable Democratic and Republican held seat.

2018-Most Vulnerable Democratic held seat
IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer-R
MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R
2018-Most Vulnerable Republican held seat
AZ-Ward-R vs Stanton-D (Flake-R loses in primary)
NV-Heller-R vs Rosen-D
2020-Most Vulnerable Democratic held seat
NH-Shaheen-D vs Sununu-R
2020-Most Vulnerable Republican held seat
AZ(Special)-McSally-R vs Sinema-D
CO-Gardner-R vs Hickenlooper-D
ME(OPEN)-Poliquin-R vs Pingree-D
MT-Daines-R vs Bullock-D
NC-Thillis-R vs Stein-D

July 27, 2017

2018 NJ US Senate Race-Who should be the Democratic nominee if Menendez-D is convicted?

Josh Gottheimer-D, the first term NJ US Representative from a Tossup Republican Congressional District in Northern NJ?
Dana Redd-D, the Mayor of Camden,NJ- Redd-D will become the first NJ US Senator from Southern NJ?


July 26, 2017

2020 US Senate Prediction

Solid Democratic
DE-Coons-D/38D
IL-Durbin-D/Bustos-D if Durbin-D retires/39D
MA-Markey-D/40D
NJ-Booker-D/Gottheimer-D if Booker-D is the Democratic nominee for President/41D
NM-Udall-D/42D
OR-Merkley-D/43D
RI-Reed-D/44D
Solid Republican
AL-Strange-R or Brooks-R/30R
AR-Cotton-R/31R
ID-Risch-R/Little-R or Labrador-R are running for Governor this year, whoever is not the Republican Nominee can run for the US Senate if Risch-R retires/32R
KY-McConnell-R/Andy Barr-R if McConnell-R retires/33R
LA-Cassidy-R/34R
MS-Cochran-R/Bryant-R if Cochran-R retires/35R
NE-Sasse-R/36R
OK-Fallin-R/Inhofe-R retires or gets challenged in the primary/37R
SC-Graham-R/38R
SD-Rounds-R/39R
TN-Alexander-R/if Alexander-R retires-Haslam-R/if Haslam-R suceeds Corker-R,Flieschmann-R/40R
WV-Capito-R/41R
WY-Enzi-R/Cheney-R or Mead-R if Enzi-R retires/42R
Likely Democratic
MN-Franken-D/45D
VA-Warner-D/46D
Likely Republican
AK-Sullivan-R/43R
IA-Ernst-R/44R
KS-Roberts-R/If Roberts-R retires,any chance Brownback-R returns to the US Senate?/Davis-D is Democratic nominee/45R
Lean Democratic
MI-Peters-D/47D
Lean Republican
GA-Perdue-R 46R
TX-Cornyn-R 47R
Tossup Democratic
AZ Special/Kelly-D,Sinema-D or Stanton-D 48D
CO-Gardner-R/Hickenlooper-D, Perlmutter-D,Kennedy-D,or Johnston-D/49D
NH-Shaheen-D/Chris Sununu-R is Republican nominee-R/50D
Tossup Republican
NC-Tillis-R/48R
Wildcard
ME-if Collins-R retires or becomes Governor or retires/Democratic Pickup/51D
MT-Daines-R/If Bullock-D runs -Tossup


July 26, 2017

2018 US Senate Election Prediction

Solid Democratic
CA-Feinstein-D/If a Democratic challenger finishes in 2nd place in the primary,can Feinstein be defeated.?ie (Eric Garcetti)24D
CT-Murphy-D/25D
DE-Carper-D/26D
HI-Hirono-D/27D
ME-King-I/D28D
MD-Cardin-D/Sarbanes-D if Cardin retires./29D
MA-Warren-D/30D
MN-Klobuchar-D/31D
NY-Gillibrand-D/32D
RI-Whitehouse-D/33D
VT-Sanders-I/D/34D
WA-Cantwell-D/35D
Solid Republican
MS-Wicker-R/45R
NE-Fisher-R/46R
TN-Corker-R/Haslam-R if Corker retires/47R
UT-Hatch-R/Hatch-R could lose in the primary/48R
WY-Barraso-R/49R
Likely Democratic
NJ-Kean-R is the incumbent,Norcross-D is the Democratic challenger/36D
NM-Heinrich-D/Sanchez-R is the Republican nominee/37D
PA-Casey-D/38D
VA-Kaine-D/39D
Likely Republican
NONE
Lean Democratic
FL-Nelson-D/40D
MI-Stabenow-D/41D
MT-Tester-D/42D
ND-Heitkamp-D/43D
OH-Brown-D/44D
WI-Baldwin-D/45D
WV-Manchin-D/46D
Lean Republican
TX-Cruz-R/50R
Tossup Democratic
MO-McCaskill-D/47D
NV-Rosen-D/48D
Tossup Republican
AZ-Flake-R/Stanton-D is the Democratic nominee/51R
IN-Messer-R/52R





July 26, 2017

In the near future, would America be ready for a gay vice president or president?

Next year, Tammy Baldwin-WI is running for re-election to the US Senate and Jared Polis-CO is running for CO Governorship. If both Baldwin and Polis win both the primary and general election. Baldwin-WI can be the VP runningmate to Booker-NJ. Booker/Baldwin wins in 2020 and 2024. In 2028 Presidential candidate Baldwin selects Polis as her VP runningmate.

July 25, 2017

Are there any Trump State Democratic US Senators that Trump can pressure to vote yes on Trumpcare?

Donnelly-IN?
Republicans lose Capito-WV,Collins-ME,and Murkowski-AK, 50R 50D VP Pence breaks tie vote.


July 24, 2017

Which Attorney General is the worse?

Jeff Sessions under Donald Trump or John Ashcroft under George W. Bush.

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