AR- Democratic draft plan 2. Creates a Tossup Democratic lean district in Eastern AR.
CO- The new 8th is a swing district in the Northern Democratic suburbs.
MI- The independent commissions fifth proposal plan.
They created a New Democratic leaning district in the Grand Rapids Area(Meijer-R), Upton-R and Huizenga-R are placed in the same district. Kildee-D and Levin-D are placed in Republican leaning swing districts and will win due to family affiliation. Kildee-D uncle and Levin-D uncle and father.
NY- the Independent commisions letters plan. Turn Katko-R district into a safe Democratic district. Put Delgado-D and Tenney-R in the same district but the Independent commission can make it less Republican. They could place Dutchess County in Delgado’s district and Sullivan County in S.P. Maloney-D district. Both Delgado and Maloney will be in Swing Districts.
OH- Chabot-R and Balderson-R are placed in a Democratic leaning district, Gonzalez-R and Stivers-R districts are swing districts.
OR-6 stretches from Portland to Salem.
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MI-3(Huizenga-R vs Meijer-R)
NY-23(Delgado-D vs Tenney-R)
WV-1(McKinley-R vs Mooney-R)
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Democrats are going to win
37)VT(Leahy-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NH(Hassan-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)FL(Demings-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
55)NC(Beasley-D or Jackson-D)
Democrats need to target
IA(Finkenaur-D)
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46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NH(Hassan-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D or Jackson-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
55)FL(Demings-D)
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In 2010, the Democratic vote was split between Crist and Meek. If Meek had not ran, Crist might have won and would have caucused with the Democrats like Angus King(I-ME).
In 2016, the Democrats nominated a former Republican(Patrick Murphy-D)who became a Democrat due to the extremism of the Republican Party. How would have the FL Democrats do if they have nominated Debbie Wasserman Schultz-D or Alan Grayson-D?
In 2022 FL Democrats will have their best candidate- Val Demings- A black progressive female Democrat from central FL that has law enforcement experience.
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AZ
FL
GA
NV
NH
NC
OH
PA
WI
CO is in the Likely Democratic column.46
FL,NC,and OH are in the Lean R column.
AZ,GA,NV,and PA are in the Lean D column 50
NH is likely Democratic without Sununu-R,
Tilt R with Sununu-R.
WI is a pure Tossup.
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NC(Beasley-D or Jackson-D)
OH(Ryan-D)
FL(Demings-D)
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37)VT(Leahy-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)NY(Schumer-D)
40)CA(Padilla-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)GA(Warnock-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
NH depends on what Sununu-R does.
If Sununu-R runs, he wins.
If Sununu-R does not run,Hassan-D wins.
WI(Johnson-R vs Barnes-D) is in the tilt D column.
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AL(1)
AZ(4)5
CA(42)47
CO(5)52
CT(5)57
DE(1)58
FL(10)68
GA(5)73
HI(2)75
IL(11)86
IN(2)88
IA(2)90
KS(1)91
KY(1)92
LA(1)93
ME(1)94
MD(6)100
MA(9)109
MI(7)116
MN(4)120
MS(1)121
MO(2)123
NV(2)125
NH(1)126
NJ(10)136
NM(2)138
NY(20)158
NC(5)163
OH(7)170
OR(5)175
PA(6)181
RI(2)183
SC(1)184
TN(2)186
TX(14)200
VT(1)201
VA(5)206
WA(7)213
WI(2)215
Democrats need to hold onto
AZ-1
IL-14
IL-17
NV-3
PA-7
VA-2
VA-7
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37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)NY(Schumer-D)
40)VT(Leahy-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)WA(Murray-D
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)GA(Warnock-D)
50)NH(Hassan-D)
51)PA(Fetterman-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
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