nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalWhat needs to occur for Kansas to elect a Democratic US Senator?
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932(McGill-D).
The other states that currently have 2 Republican US Senators have elected a Democrat in
1970)UT(Moss-D) and WY(McGee-D)
1974)ID(Church-D)
1982)MS(Stennis-D)
1988)TX(Bentsen-D)
1990)OK(Boren-D) and TN(Gore-D)
1992)KY(Ford-D)
1998)SC(Hollings-D)
2006)NE(Nelson-D)
2008)AK(Begich-D),AR(Pryor-D),IA(Harkin-D),
LA(Landrieu-D),NC(Hagen-D) and SD(Johnson-D)
2012)FL(Nelson-D),IN(Donnelly-D),MO(McCaskill-D), and ND(Heitkamp-D).
2017 special election) AL(Jones-D)
KS has 2 top tier Democratic candidate for US Senator/ Laura Kelly-D and Sharice Davids-D).
Minnesota Congressional Districts are 4R/3D/1tie)
Republican favored
1)MN-7(Fischbach-R)
2)MN-6(Emmer-R)
3)MN-8(Stauber-R)
4)MN-1(OPEN due to Hagedorn-R death.)
Democratic favored
1)MN-5(Omar-D)
2)MN-4(McCollum-D)
3)MN-3(Phillips-D)
Tie
1)MN-2(Craig-D)
Who carried MN-2? Biden or Trump?
US Senate Elections the Democrats are to win in 2022 by larger margin to a narrower margin.
Democratic incumbents from (Biden2020 states) that get re-elected with over 60 percent of the popular vote.
HI(Schatz-D)
NY(Schumer-D)
CA(Padilla-D) appointed incumbent seeking a 1st 6 year term.
MD(Van Hollen-D)
CT(Blumenthal-D)
VT(OPEN-Leahy-D/Welch-D is the likely Democratic nominee.)
Democratic incumbents from (Biden2020 states) that get re-elected by a double digit margin but less than 60 percent of the popular vote.
OR(Wyden-D)
WA(Murray-D)
IL(Duckworth-D)
Democratic incumbent from (Biden2020 states) that get elected by a single digit margin.
CO(Bennet-D)
NH(Hassan-D)
AZ(Kelly-D)
NV(Cortez Masto-D)
GA(Warnock-D)
Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022 from (Biden2020 states) the Democrats are likely to win.
PA(OPEN Toomey-R/Fetterman-D or Lamb-D)
WI(Johnson-R vs(Barnes-D or Godlewski-D)
Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022 from (Non Biden2020 states) the Democrats are likely to win.
NC(OPEN Burr-R/Beasley-D)
OH(OPEN Portman-R/Ryan-D)
The maximum number of US Senate seats the Democrats are to win in 2022 is 18.
1/37)HI(Schatz-D)
2/38)NY(Schumer-D)
3/39)CA(Padilla-D)
4/40)MD(Van Holden-D)
5/41)VT(Welch-D)
6/42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
7/43)OR(Wyden-D)
8/44)WA(Murray-D)
9/45)IL(Duckworth-D)
10/46)CO(Bennet-D)
11/47)NH(Hassan-D
12/48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
13/49)AZ(Kelly-D)
14/50)GA(Warnock-D)
15/51)PA(Fetterman-D)
16/52)NC(Beasley-D)
17/53)WI(Barnes-D)
18/54)OH(Ryan-D)
The maximum number of US Senate the Democrats will win in 2022 is 18.
1/37)HI(Schatz-D)
2/38)NY(Schumer-D)
3/39)VT(Welch-D)
4/40)CA(Padilla-D)
5/41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
6/42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
7/43)OR(Wyden-D)
8/44)WA(Murray-D)
9/45)IL(Duckworth-D)
10/46)CO(Bennet-D)
11/47)NH(Hassan-D)
12/48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
13/49)AZ(Kelly-D)
14/50)GA(Warnock-D)
15/51)PA(Fetterman-D)
16/52)WI(Barnes-D)
17/53)NC(Beasley-D)
18/54)OH(Ryan-D)
The maximum number of US Senate seats the Democrats could win in 2022 is 19
1/37)HI(Schatz-D)
2/38)NY(Schumer-D)
3/39)CA(Padilla-D)
4/40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
5/41)VT(Welch-D)
6/42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
7/43)OR(Wyden-D)
8/44)IL(Duckworth-D)
9/45)WA(Murray-D)
10/46)CO(Bennet-D)
11/47)NH(Hassan-D)
12/48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
13/49)AZ(Kelly-D)
14/50)PA(Fetterman-D)
15/51)GA(Warnock-D)
16/52)WI(Barnes-D)
17/53)NC(Beasley-D)
18/54)OH(Ryan-D)
19/55)FL(Demings-D)
US Senate seats the Democrats win in 2022 to stay in the majority and forget Sinema and Manchin.
37)CA(Padilla-D) vs another D(Horton)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)NY(Schumer-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA(Warnock-D) 1/2023 runoff.
US House Seats Democrats need to win in 2022 to remain in the majority.
Democrats will lose(D vs D) districts.
CA-9(McNerney-D) 1
CA-42(Open Roybal Allard-D/Open Lowenthal-D) will be a Safe District. 2
GA-7(McBath-D/Bourdeaux-D) 3
IL-6(Casten-D/Newman-D) 4
MI-11(Stevens-D/Levin-D) 5
MI-12(Lawrence-D) 6
PA-17(Open Lamb-D/Open Doyle-D) will be a safe D District. 7
TX-34(Vela-D) 8
Democrats will lose(D vs R) districts. 9
NC-11(Manning-D) 10
OH-6(Ryan-D) 11
Democrats will lose districts to Republicans in
AZ-2(O’Halleran-D) 12
AZ-6(OPEN Kirkpatrick-D) 13
IA-3(Axne-D) 14
NJ-7(Malinowski-D) 15
PA-8(Cartwright-D) 16
TN-5(OPEN Cooper-D) 17
WI-3(OPEN Kind-D) 18
Democrats will pick up
1)CA-13
2)CA-22
3)CA-27
4)CA-45
5)CO-8
6)IL-3
7)IL-13
8)MI-3
9)MI-13
10)NM-2
11)NY-1
12)NY-11
13)NY-22
14)OR-6
15)TX-15
16)TX-35
Democrats will have net loss of 2 seats in the US House Representatives in 2022.
Democrats will hold onto
FL-7(OPEN Murphy-D)
FL-13(OPEN Crist-D)
KS-3(Davids-D)
ME-2(Golden-D)
MI-7(Slotkin-D)
MI-8(Kildee-D)
MN-2(Craig-D)
NH-1(Pappas-D)
OH-9(Kaptur-D)
VA-2(Luria-D)
2022 US Senate Elections from states that Biden-D lost in 2020 that Democrats could win.
OH(Ryan-D) strong Democrat vs weak Republican.
2022 US Senate Elections from states that Biden-D won in 2020 that Republicans could win.
WI(Barnes-D) Johnson-R might survive like he did last time.
GA(Warnock-D) if the seats goes into a 1/2023 runoff.
Democrats will definitely win the 2022 US Senate Elections in
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
Democrats will win GA(Warnock-D) if there is no 1/2023 runoff.
Democrats will win WI(Barnes-D) does not run a lackluster campaign.
Democrats will win NC(Beasley-D) does not run a lackluster campaign.
Democrats will win OH(Ryan-D) does not run a lackluster campaign.
The states where Democrats pick up US House seats in 2022,
CA)+3D
CA-22(Valadao-R) Rudy Salas-D
CA-27(Garcia-R) Christy Smith-D
CA-45(Steel-R) Jay Chen-D
CO)+1D
CO-8(new) Yadira Caraveo-D
IL)+1D
IL-13(new) Nikki Budzinski-D
NM)+1D
NM-2(Herrell-R) Gabe Vasquez-D
NY)+3D
NY-1(Zeldin-R) Kara Hahn-D
NY-11(Malliotakis-R) Max Rose-D
NY-22(Katko-R) Samuel Roberts-D
OR)+1D
OR-6(new) Loretta Smith-D
+10D
Democrats will lose seats in
AZ-2(O’Halleran-D) 1
AZ-6(OPEN Kirkpatrick-D) 2
FL-7(OPEN Murphy-D) 3
GA-7(McBath-D or Bourdeaux-D) 4
IA-3(Axne-D) 5
KS-3(Davids-D) 6
ME-2(Golden-D) 7
MI-11(Levin-D or Stevens-D) 8
NH-1(Pappas-D) 9
NJ-7(Malinowski-D) 10
NC-11(Manning-D) 11
OH-6(OPEN Ryan-D) 12
OH-9(Kaptur-D) 13
PA-8(Cartwright-D) 14
PA-16(OPEN-Lamb-D) 15
TN-5(Cooper-D) 16
VA-2(Luria-D) 17
WI-3(OPEN Kind-D) 18
Democrats will not lose more than a net loss of 8 US House seats.
Democrats are probably going to hold onto
VA-2(Luria-D)
NH-1(Pappas-D)
ME-2(Golden-D)
KS-3(Davids-D)
IA-3(Axne-D)
Democrats are probably going to pick up
MI-3(Meijer-R) Hillary Scholten-D
Democrats will have a net loss of 2 US House seats.
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