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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
October 24, 2022

US Senate seats in states up for re-election in 2022 that the Democrats are favored to win.

HI(Schatz-D)
CA(Padilla-D)
MD(Van Hollen-D)
VT(Welch-D)
NY(Schumer-D)
OR(Wyden-D)
IL(Duckworth-D)
CT(Blumenthal-D)
WA(Murray-D)
CO(Bennet-D)
NH(Hassan-D)
AZ(Kelly-D)
Tossup US Senate Races that the Democrats will end up winning.
GA(Warnock-D)
PA(Fetterman-D)
NV(Cortez Masto-D)





October 23, 2022

Tossup US Senate Races that the Democrats need to win in 2022 in order to remain in the majority.

GA runoff(Warnock-D will finish in 1st place in 11/2022 but will not get over 50 percent of the popular vote.) Warnock is definitely going to win in the 12/2022 runoff.
PA(Fetterman-D) margin of victory will be similar to Biden’s margin of victory in the 2020 US Presidential Election in PA.

Democrats are favored to win,
AZ(Kelly-D)
NH(Hassan-D)
CO(Bennet-D)
WA(Murray-D)
CT(Blumenthal-D)
IL(Duckworth-D)
OR(Wyden-D)
NY(Schumer-D)
MD(Van Hollen-D)
VT(Welch-D)
CA(Padilla-D)
HI(Schatz-D).

Wave elections are NV,OH,NC and WI.

October 23, 2022

US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a less than 5 percent margin.

NV(Cortez Masto-D) .5 percent margin.
PA(Fetterman-D) 2 percent margin.
GA(Warnock-D) 3 percent margin
AZ(Kelly-D) 4.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 5 to 10 percent margin.
NH(Hassan-D) 6.5 percent margin.
CO(Bennet-D) 8.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by 10 to 15 percent margin.
WA(Murray-D) 10.5 percent margin.
CT(Blumenthal-D) 12.5 percent margin.
IL(Duckworth-D) 14.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 15 to 20 percent margin.
OR(Wyden-D) 16.5 percent margin.
NY(Schumer-D) 18.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 20 to 25 percent margin.
MD(Van Hollen-D) 20.5 percent margin.
CA(Padilla-D) 22.5 percent margin.
VT(Welch-D) 24.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a more than 25 percent margin.
HI(Schatz-D)






October 23, 2022

US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a less than 5 percent margin.

NV(Cortez Masto-D) no clear favorite. .5 percent margin.
PA(Fetterman-D) 1.5 percent margin.
GA(Warnock-D) 2.5 percent margin.
AZ(Kelly-D) 3.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 5 to 10 percent margin.
NH(Hassan-D) 5.5 percent margin.
CO(Bennet-D) 7.5 percent margin.
WA(Murray-D) 9.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 10 to 15 percent margin.
CT(Blumenthal-D) 11.5 percent margin.
IL(Duckworth-D) 13.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 15 to 20 percent margin.
OR(Wyden-D) 16.5 percent margin.
NY(Schumer-D) 19.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 20 to 25 percent margin.
MD(Van Hollen-D) 22.5 percent margin.
US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a 25 to 30 percent margin.
CA(Padilla-D). 25.5 percent margin.
VT(Welch-D) 28.5 percent margin.
US Senates seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a more than 30 percent margin.
HI(Schatz-D)







October 23, 2022

US Senate seats in the states the Democrats will win in 2022 by a solid to slight margin.

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)NY(Schumer-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)GA(Warnock-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)



October 23, 2022

US Senate seats in states that the Democrats will win in 2022 .

NV(Cortez Masto-D) less than 1 percent margin.
PA(Fetterman-D) between 1 to 2 percent margin.
GA(Warnock-D) between 2 to 3 percent margin.
AZ(Kelly-D) between 3 to 4 percent margin.
NH(Hassan-D) between 4 to 6 percent margin.
CO(Bennet-D) between 6 to 8 percent margin.
WA(Murray-D) between 8 to 10 percent margin.
CT(Blumenthal-D) between 10 to 12 percent margin.
IL(Duckworth-D) between 12 to 14 percent margin.
OR(Wyden-D) between 14 to 17 percent margin.
NY(Schumer-D) between 17 to 20 percent margin.
MD(Van Hollen-D) between 20 to 23 percent margin.
CA(Padilla-D) between 23 to 26 percent margin.
VT(Welch-D) between 26 to 29 percent margin.
HI(Schatz-D) more than a 29 percent margin.





October 23, 2022

US Senate seats in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 based on the margin of victory.

Less than 1 percent margin.
OH(Ryan-D)maybe
NV(Cortez Masto-D) maybe
Between a 1 to 2 percent margin.
PA(Fetterman-D)
Between a 2 to 3 percent margin.
GA(Warnock-D)
Between a 3 to 4 percent margin.
AZ(Kelly-D)
Between a 4 to 6 percent margin.
NH(Hassan-D)
Between a 6 to 8 percent margin.
CO(Bennet-D)
Between a 8 to 10 percent margin.
WA(Murray-D)
Between a 10 to 12 percent margin.
CT(Blumenthal-D)
Between a 12 to 15 percent margin.
IL(Duckworth-D)
Between a 15 to 18 percent margin.
OR(Wyden-D)
Between a 18 to 21 percent margin.
NY(Schumer-D)
Between a 21 to 24 percent margin.
CA(Padilla-D)
Between a 24 to 27 percent margin.
MD(Van Hollen-D)
Between a 27 to 30 percent margin.
VT(Welch-D)
More than a 30 percent margin.
HI(Schatz-D)









October 22, 2022

US Senate seats up in 2022 in states that the Democrats will win by a less than 10 percent margin.

WA(Murray-D) 9 to 11 percent.
CO(Bennet-D) 7 to 9 percent.
NH(Hassan-D) 5 to 7 percent.
AZ(Kelly-D) 3 to 5 percent.
PA(Fetterman-D) 2 to 3 percent
GA runoff (Warnock-D) 1 to 2 percent.
NV(Cortez Masto-D) less than 1 percent.




US Senate seats up in 2022 in states that the Democrats will win by a more than 10 percent margin.
HI(Schatz-D) more than 35 percent.
VT(Welch-D)31 to 35 percent.
CA(Padilla-D)27 to 31 percent
MD(Van Hollen-D)23 to 27 percent.
NY(Schumer-D) 20 to 23 percent.
OR(Wyden-D) 17 to 20 percent.
IL(Duckworth-D) 14 to 17 percent.
CT(Blumenthal-D)11 to 14 percent.
WA(Murray-D) 9 to 11 percent.
CO(Bennet-D) 7 to 9 percent.
NH(Hassan-D) 5 to 7 percent.
AZ(Kelly-D) 3 to 5 percent.
PA(Fetterman-D) 2 to 3 percent.
GA(Warnock-D) 1 to 2 percent.
NV(Cortez Masto-D) less than 1 percent.
The 52nd US Senate seat for Democrats will be OH(Ryan-D)





October 22, 2022

2022 Democratic US Senate Nominee's margin of victory.

Less than a 1 percent margin.
(NV-Cortez Masto-D)
Between a 1 percent to a 2 percent margin.
(PA-Fetterman-D)
Between a 2 percent to a 3 percent margin.
(GA-Warnock-D)
Between a 3 percent to a 4.5 percent margin.
(AZ- Kelly-D)
Between a 4.5 percent to a 6 percent margin.
(NH-Hassan-D)
Between a 6 percent to a 7.5 percent margin.
(CO-Bennet-D)
Between a 7.5 percent to a 9.5 percent margin.
(WA-Murray-D)
Between a 9.5 percent to a 11.5 percent margin.
(CT- Blumenthal-D)
Between a 11.5 percent to a 13.5 percent margin.
(IL- Duckworth-D)
Between a 13.5 percent to a 16 percent margin.
(OR- Wyden-D)
Between a 16 percent to a 18.5 percent margin.
(NY- Schumer-D)
Between a 18.5 percent to a 21 percent margin.
(VT- Welch-D)
Between a 21 percent to a 24 percent margin.
(MD- Van Hollen-D)
Between a 24 percent to a 27 percent margin.
(CA- Padilla-D)
More than a 27 percent margin.
(HI- Schatz-D)

Democrats will fall short in WI,OH,and NC.

October 22, 2022

US Senate seats that the Democrats will win in 2022 from a solid to slight margin.

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)MD(Van Hollen-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)NY(Schumer-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)GA(Warnock-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)

















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