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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
December 1, 2023

How many class of 2000,2006,2012,and 2018 Democratic US Senators are going to be left?

2000
Cantwell-WA
Carper-DE and Stabenow-MI are retiring.
2006
Klobuchar-MN
Casey-PA
Whitehouse-RI
Sanders-VT if he runs again.
Brown-OH and Tester-MT are in a very tough re-election campaign.
Cardin-MD is retiring.
Menendez-NJ is going to lose.
2012
Murphy-CT
Hirono-HI
King-ME
Warren-MA
Heinrich-NM
Gillibrand-NY
Kaine-VA
Baldwin-WI
Manchin-WV is retiring.
2018
Rosen-NV
Sinema-AZ is going to retire or lose.

The class of 2024 Democratic US Senators will be
Schiff or Porter-CA
Blunt Rochester-DE
Alsobrooks-MD
Gallego-AZ
Slotkin-MI
The class of 2024 Republican US Senators will be
Banks-IN
Ricketts-NE
Republican Primary Winner-UT
Justice-WV


December 1, 2023

1988 US Presidential and US Senate Election in OH.

George HW Bush carried OH by a 10.85 percent margin.
Howard Metzenbaum was re-elected to the US Senate by a 14 percent margin.

Sherrod Brown is going to win re-election by a high single/low double digit margin.

December 1, 2023

Are the Jayapal sisters(Pramila-WA and Susheela-OR) going to run for the US Senate in 2028 if and when

Murray-WA and Wyden-OR retire?

Susheela is running for the US House next year to succeed Blumenauer(OR-3).



December 1, 2023

How long are the WA US Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell going to serve in the US Senate for?

Both of the WA US Senators have the most combined seniority.
Murray-has been in the US Senate since 1/1993= 31 years.
Cantwell has been in the US Senate since 1/2001= 23 years.
Cantwell is running for re-election in 2024 and is going to win.
Murray is up for re-election in 2028.

The IA US Senators have a combined seniority of 52 years.
Grassley has been in the US Senate since 1/1981=43 years.
Ernst has been in the US Senate since 1/2015= 9 years.

The KY US Senators have a combined seniority of 52 years.
McConnell has been in the US Senate since 1/1985=39 years.
Paul has been in the US Senate since 1/2011=13 years.

Grassley and McConnell are likely to retire when their term is up.

November 25, 2023

Who is going to be the Republican nominee for the 2028 GA US Senate Election?

Kemp-R? If he does not become US Senator in 2027.
Jones-R? If he does not become US Senator or Governor in 2027.
Carr-R? If he does not become US Senator or Governor in 2027.
US Representative
Ferguson-R?
McCormick-R?
Scott-R?
Clyde-R?
Collins-R?
Loudermilk-R?
Taylor Greene-R?


Does Warnock-D avoid a general election runoff if he faces anyone of these candidates?
Which GA US Senator will have an easier time getting re-elected?
Ossoff-D in 2026?
Warnock-D in 2028?

November 25, 2023

If and when Spanberger becomes Governor of VA in 2026, What elected office does she run for after she

leaves the VA Governorship?
The US Senate in 2030(Kaine’s seat assuming he does not seek re-election.)?
The US Senate in 2032(Warner’s seat assuming he does not seek re-election.)?
The US President or Vice President in 2032? This is assuming the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
Goes into the private sector and runs for VA Governor in 2033?
Becomes Kamala Harris’s Vice Presidential Runningmate in 2028?

November 25, 2023

I like to see Ben Cardin's nephew Jon Cardin seek the Democratic nomination for the 2024 MD US Senate Race?

I like to see if he could win or help Angela Alsobrooks by taking votes away from David Trone.

Alsobrooks will carry Baltimore City, Charles County, Howard County, Montgomery County, and Prince George’s County.
Trone will carry Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Frederick County, and Harford County.

Trone will carry the Western MD Counties- Allegany, Garrett, and Washington.
the Eastern MD Counties
Caroline
Cecil
Dorchester
Kent
Queen Anne’s
Somerset
Talbot
Wicimoco
Worcester
The remaining Southern MD Counties
Calvert
St Mary’s

Alsobrooks will carry the 4th,5th,7th,and 8th Congressional District.
Trone will carry the 1st,2nd,3rd and 6th Congressional District.







November 25, 2023

What other statewide elected offices the Democrats in VA and GA occupies besides the 2 US Senate seats?

VA currently has a Republican Governor(Youngkin-R),Republican Lt Governor(Sears-R),and Attorney General(Miyares-R).
GA currently has a Republican Governor(Kemp-R),Republican Lt Governor(Jones-R),Republican Secretary of State(Raffensberger-R), Republican Attorney General(Carr-R), the State School Superintendent, Agricultural Commisioner, Insurance Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, and the Public Service Commissioners are Republican.

Democrats will win back the VA Governorship in 2025(Spanberger-D) along with the Lt Governorship and Attorney General’s office. This year they will have majority control of the Senate and House of Delegates.

Democrats need to gain 7 seats in the GA state senate and 14 seats in the GA state house to be in the majority.

In NC- Democrats currently hold the Governorship(Cooper-D),Attorney General’s office(Stein-D), Secretary of State(Marshall-D) and Auditor(Wood-D). Let’s hope the Democrats hold onto the Governorship(Stein-D) and the Attorney General’s office(Jackson-D) plus win back the Lt Governorship, Treasurer, Agricultural, Insurance, Labor, and Public Insurance’s office. Democrats need to gain 6 seats in the NC state senate and 13 seats in the NC state house.


Democrats need to gain 5 seats to regain control of the FL state senate and 14 seats to regain control of the FL state house.
Democrats might win back the FL US Senate seat(Mucarsel Powell-D).

Democrats need to gain 4 seats to regain control of the TX state senate and 12 states to regain control of the TX state house.
Democrats might win back the TX US Senate seat(Allred-D).

Could the Democrats hold onto the KY Governorship and Lt Governorship? Jacqueline Coleman-D

How would we rate the 2026 US Senate races in GA(Ossoff-D vs Kemp-R),NC(Tillis-R vs Cooper-D) and VA(Warner-D vs Youngkin-R)?

VA is Likely Democratic.
NC is Tossup
GA is Tossup.

NC is the 3rd southern state Biden could win in 2024.











November 25, 2023

Will it be doable to give Yadira Caraveo-D(CO-8) and Adam Frisch-D(CO-3) safer districts.

CO-8- add Fort Collins.
CO-3- add Eagle County/Vail.

November 25, 2023

Newly elected US House Members from MD?

MD-2(Olszewski-D) if Ruppersberger-D retires.
MD-3(Elfreth-D or Atterbeary-D)
MD-6(Lopez-D or Vogel-D)
Who wins in MD-5 if Hoyer-D does not run again?
Rueben Collins-D? Charles County Executive.
Michael Jackson-D? state senator representing Calvert,Charles, and Prince George’s.
Jazz Lewis-D? state delegate representing Prince George’s and an employee of Steny Hoyer.
Jay Walker-D? former state delegate representing Prince George’s and NFL quarterback.
CT Wilson-D? state delegate representing Charles County.
Arthur Ellis-D? state senator representing Charles County.




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