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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
July 30, 2023

Should Laura Kelly(D-KS) run for the US Senate?

Kelly is unable to make another/3rd term run for Governor due to term limits. The last time KS had a Democratic US Senator was in the 1930’s.
KS is more Democratic than AL,AR,ID,IN,KY,LA,MS,MO,MT,NE,ND,OK,SD,TN,UT,WV,and WY.
KS is trending Democratic
Trump won KS in 2016 by a 21 percent margin and in 2020 by a 15 percent margin.
The Republican incumbent is Roger Marshall who is MAGA Republican.

July 30, 2023

The next US Senators from KY,WA,OR,IL,RI,NY,and ID

KY(Andy Barr-R)
WA(Kim Schrier-D)
OR(Andrea Salinas-D)
IL(Lauren Underwood-D)
RI(Seth Magaziner-D)
NY(Dan Goldman-D)
ID(Russ Fulcher-R)

July 30, 2023

US Senate seats that the Democrats are going to win in 2024 by a landslide to narrow margin.

CA(Schiff-D vs Porter-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
VT(Sanders-I)
MD(Alsobrooks-D)
MA(Warren-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
ME(King-I)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
PA(Casey-D)
MI(Slotkin-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
AZ(Gallego-D)
OH(Brown-D)
MT(Tester-D)

July 30, 2023

If John Sarbanes decides to seek the Democratic nomination for his father's US Senate seat.

What place will he be in in the Democratic primary?
Sarbanes has high name recognition and has been in Congress since 2007.
Sarbanes does not have support from the establishment.
Statewide elected officials Moore,Miller,Lierman,and Brown are going to endorse Angela Alsobrooks.
US Representatives Hoyer,Mfume,Ivey,and Raskin are going to endorse Alsobrooks.
County Executives that are going to endorse Alsobrooks.
Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman
Baltimore County Executive John Olszewski
Baltimore City Mayor Brandon Scott
Charles County Board of Commissioners President Rueben Collins.
Howard County Executive Calvin Ball.
Jon Cardin is also considering entering the 2024 MD US Senate Election.


July 30, 2023

Which US Senate seat up for re-election in 2026 is likely to flip? GA(Ossoff-D) or NC(Tillis-R)?

Unless John James(R-MI) seek a rematch against Gary Peters(D-MI), Gary Peters is safer in 2026 than he was in 2020.

If Brian Kemp(R-GA) and Roy Cooper(D-NC) don’t run,
Republicans have Lt Governor Burt Jones or Attorney General Chris Carr but both of them are likely to run for Governor. If MTG runs she is the clear frontrunner which gets Ossoff re-elected.
Democrats have Don Davis,Wiley Nickel or Jeff Jackson.

July 29, 2023

Who would be the Junior US Senator from VA if Donald Trump did not become President.

States the Clinton/Kaine-D lost in 2016 by a less than 1 percent margin.
MI
PA
WI.
If Trump lost those 3 states in 2016. Tim Kaine would have been Vice President.
Elaine Luria,Abigail Spanberger,and Jennifer Wexton were not in Congress before 2019.
Terry McAuliffe who was Governor 2016/2017 would have picked either Ralph Northam(Lt Governor) or Mark Herring(Attorney General).




July 29, 2023

2024 US Senate Election Ratings.

Safe Democratic
CA
CT
DE
HI
ME(King-I) caucuses with the Democrats.
MD
MA
MN(Klobuchar-D) won all of her US Senate Races by at least a 20 percent margin.
NJ
NM
NY
RI
VT
WA
Safe Republican
IN(Jim Banks-R vs an unknown Democrat.)
MS
NE regular
NE special
ND
TN
UT
WY
Likely Democratic(low double digit margin)
MI
PA
VA
Likely Republican
FL
MO
WV(Manchin-D loses by a double digit margin.)
Lean Democratic
AZ
NV
WI
Lean Republican
TX
Tilt Democratic
MT
OH

July 29, 2023

US Senate Elections that the Democrats will win in 2024 by a landslide to narrow margin.

CA(Schiff-D vs Porter-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
VT(Sanders-I)
MD(Alsobrook-D)
MA(Warren-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D vs Zeldin-R)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
ME(King-I)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
WA(Cantwell-D vs Herrara Beutler-R)
VA(Kaine-D vs Cao-R)
MI(Slotkin-D)
PA(Casey-D vs McCormick-R)
NV(Rosen-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
AZ(Gallego-D)
OH(Brown-D)
MT(Tester-D)
TX(Allred-D)



July 29, 2023

Why didn't Gavin Newsom appoint Barbara Lee to Kamala Harris' US Senate seat in 2021?

Black Female US Senator replacing a Black Female US Senator. Barbara Lee would have won in the 2022 primary and general election. CA would have a Black Female US Senator if Gavin Newsom had done that. Alex Padilla would be a US Senate candidate for Dianne Feinstein’s US Senate seat along with Adam Schiff and Katie Porter.

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