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Member since: Tue Feb 7, 2017, 12:49 PM
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What does Vlad really want?

For just a minute let's presume that Vlad knows better than to put all of his eggs in one basket...
Or share his entire plan with any single individual....

Just like terror cells & assets involved in other large scale infiltration operations, it is rare for the members to be given information beyond that which is absolutely necessary to accomplish their given task.

This would mean that the small fish assets may truly believe that there is no large operation underway and have no idea that they are actually part of a whole school of assets whose independent acts are contributing to a larger operation.
Even if caught, an individual fish can't provide information he does not know.

45 has always referred to:
* wanting to make "good deals" with Vlad
* 4% growth
* Tariffs
* Bilateral agreements
* Renegotiate NAFTA
* Ditch allies unless they pay up
* Obsolete NATO
* Manufacturing & Mining industries
* Oil, oil, oil, and more oil
* De regulation of everything
* How much the sanctions have really hurt Russians (awwww)

Now consider the cabinet & 45's advisors & who he has met with...

* Wilbur Ross - Cyprus Bank ($)
* Tillerson - Exxon (oil)
* Flynn - Pro Putin (security/intelligence/military)
* Schwarzman - Blackstone ($)
* Carter Page - Pro Russia / oil & $
* Manafort - Russia/Ukraine politics
* Ivanka /Jared - Russia Social Scene & domestic real estate investment opportunities
* Bannon / Sessions/ Miller -- pre existing relationship built on common nationalist beliefs
* Jack Ma - Alibaba - global internet trade and new investment partner with Russian bank - Speaker at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2016

At the 2016 SPIEF, Putin gave a speech in which he stated the following:
" Common energy, oil and gas and financial markets will emerge by 2025."
"The Russia-led alliance of 'Great Eurasia' is set to become one of the centers of the new 'wide integration contour'."
" Flexible integration alliances will define the future of the world economy,”
"GDP growth in Russia should be at least 4% in the long term."
"There is a risk that the geopolitical tensions in the world may increase due to a depletion of natural resources."

A common market, one of four levels of economic integration, is one in which members agree to:
•trade freely amongst themselves
•apply same tariffs & trade policy with non-members
•no restrictions on immigration, capital investment, or technology sharing amongst members

Basically, Putin is looking to be at the center of one or more common Oil/Gas markets, in which goods,services, people, money, and technology can move freely from one member country to another....

Definitely requires more than just the lifting of sanctions...

More on sanctions & Putin/USA....

Parallels between 45 & recent Russian Economic Forum

By looking at a few of the topics discussed at the 2016 St.Petersburg International Economic Forum, one can begin to better understand Putin's vision, how Trump can help him, and the motivation behind some of Trump's rhetoric which is likely a desire to implement concepts, from Putin's vision, here in the USA.

The following overviews are taken directly from a forum agenda

The Economic Impact of Migrant Crises :

• The massive influx of refugees from the Middle East and Central Asia has become a major international challenge, threatening the political fortunes of a number of individual EU heads of government and straining the Union’s core foundations.
* But Europe is not alone in confronting a backlash to immigration;
* in the US the influx of the Latino population has increased xenophobia and reshaped the body politic,
* while regional economies such as Turkey and Jordan must manage the flood of huge minority populations.
* What policies must be implemented to create a sensible and sustainable immigration policy for each of these economies, turning what is presently viewed as a crisis into a potential economic growth opportunity?
* What is at stake for the rest of the world if these crises continue unabated? 

The Big Challenges in Promoting Scientific Development :
* Science and technology play a predominant role in providing solutions to modern humanity’s critical challenges.
* Science itself is evolving as it confronts new challenges, but to what extent are these changes the result of external factors?
* What is currently driving scientific development internationally and in Russia: responding to external demands or the sequential logic of R&D activities?
* What are the key foundations of modern-day scientific and technical development and how might this change?
* What are some of the potential social, economic, and political impacts that can be derived from effective approaches to scientific development?

Clean Energy-- Building Momentum in a Renaissance in Nuclear Power :
* Recent innovations in financing models, mobility for power stations, generation and water desalination applications, as well as technologies to recycle spent rods, are all driving a renewed interest in nuclear as a growing part of the energy mix.
* What are the next big opportunities for the USD 55 billion industry and
* what challenges must be overcome for the sector to reach its full potential? 

Energy Company Summit 
World Oil Market at Crossroads: Uncertainty Investments or Risk Management?
* The most critical phase of the global oil market crisis is over.
* However, oil prices are still low, investments in oil production and exploration are being cut for the second consecutive year, and a high degree of uncertainty remains in the market.
* What are the short-term and long-term effects of underinvestment in the oil industry?
* How will it influence the resource-to-production ratio?
* Is the price increase seen in the recent weeks a long-term trend?
* Is this level of prices sufficient to recover investments?
* What is the role of shale oil production in the demand and supply balance and pricing in the mid-term?
* Is it possible to speak about the start of a new era in the development and regulation of the global oil market? 

SPIEF 2016 Energy Conference participants from USA:
Gustavo Sapoznik, CEO, ASAPP (USA);
Dirk Ahlborn, CEO, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies (USA);
Jim Rogers, Chairman, Beeland Interests (USA);
Donald James Umpleby III, Group President for Energy & Power Systems, Caterpillar (USA);
Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, IHS (USA);
Dominic Barton, Global Managing Director, McKinsey & Company (USA);
Johan Aurik, Managing Partner and Chairman of the Board, A.T. Kearney (USA);
Rex Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, ExxonMobil Corporation (USA);
Javier Perez, President for Europe, MasterCard (USA);

Addressing Climate Change: Potential Costs and Opportunities :

• The success of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris has made addressing climate change a top-priority issue, with clear targets to moderate further global temperature increases.
* But limiting greenhouse gases will have costs for many legacy industries – estimated by some to top USD 100 billion – while new investments in science and technology will spur new business opportunities and expand markets.
* How are businesses adjusting their strategies in the light of these changes and
* will the potential benefits of creating green industries and mitigating climate change risks outweigh the costs of restructuring certain industrial sectors and building the required infrastructure? 

Healthcare in Russia: How to Build a More Effective System?
* Russian healthcare over the past century has been recognized as a global leader in many areas.
* More recently, the government has introduced the “Health” National Priority Project and regional modernization programmes.
* What institutional and managerial solutions could help Russia regain its reputation for setting global standards?

Journalism & Artificial Intelligence:
* Newest Technologies vs. Traditional Journalism.
* Is Artificial Intelligence a Threat to the Journalistic Profession?
* The new era of technical innovation is resulting in fundamental changes to many traditional business procedures, jobs and professions – and journalism is no exception.
* Computer software is offering cutting- edge online solutions that increasingly surpass humans in terms of speed and quality of produced content.
* Automatic scripts for writing news products based on processing raw data are being widely used by dozens of news organizations around the world and
* these news writing robots do not need holidays or weekends, never miss deadlines and generate content ready at a fraction of the cost.
* How far away are we from the day when machines acquire the ability to perform journalistic investigations and write analytical memos?
* Are we on the doorstep of a new era when human beings will no longer be necessary to do a journalist’s job?

Re-Globalization: Tectonic Shifts in the Geo-Economic Landscape In cooperation with VTB Bank:

• The inevitability of unabated globalization and its unquestioned benefit for the global community have recently unravelled, straining national politics, altering international relations, and transforming global markets.
* In its place are emerging regional trading blocks, such as TPP and TTIP, to name a few, a new generation of financial and economic institutions, and the potential for new trade and investment flows.
* But the many risks of destabilization and a growing tide of geopolitical turmoil are challenging policymakers and businesses to navigate this transformation to a new global paradigm.
* How will these new factors impact issues that, by their nature, are global, such as energy, climate change, trade, finance, etc.?
* And what steps should be taken to mitigate risks and create a more sustainable economic architecture? 

Global currency:
* The world’s reserve currency system is undergoing increasingly visible shifts.
* The inclusion of the yuan in the SDR basket is symbolic of the growing weight of the developing nations.
* While the US economy as a percentage of global GDP in relative terms is shrinking,
* the role of the US dollar in global finance remains deeply entrenched.
* What are the risks inherent to a global financial system tied so closely to the “greenback”, and
* what steps can and should be taken to create a more stable basket of currencies?

Russia–North America: Business Outlook for Economic Cooperation – a Reality Check :

• In the current economic climate and weak economic environment, the majority of North American companies active in Russia are maintaining the status quo of their positions or in some cases expanding operations.
* What do Russian, US, and Canadian companies believe to be the prospects for, and potential benefits and risks of, expanded business and economic cooperation?
* What confidence-building measures could the three governments take to improve the conditions for business development and commercial engagement? 

Russia–Japan: Creating a New Business Cooperation Model :
* The development of mutually beneficial economic relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region is a priority for Russia and strengthening the partnership with Japan – one of the world’s largest financial, economic, and investment centres – is among the most promising.
* Investment projects, establishing Russian–Japanese enterprises, and jointly promoting goods and services on the markets of third countries are extremely important to businesses in Russia and Japan, and offer a great deal of promise.
* Recently, as a result of weakness in both economies, there has been a decline in bilateral trade and investment.
* How can the current difficulties be overcome, and what should be done to diversify trade and economic cooperation between the two countries?
* What practical steps could be taken to promote relations and bring economic ties to a new level?

Exports :
* Over the past decade and a half, Russia’s trade has predominantly centred around the export of oil, gas, and other commodities.
* However, the country’s geographical position, wealth of resources, and strong science and technology foundations provide the fundamentals for a competitive manufacturing sector, while the rouble exchange rate and export support measures are boosting the potential for entry into new markets.
* In complement to the country’s traditional CIS and European Union trading partners, the Asia-Pacific region, characterized by its enormous array of industrial, transport, social, and urban infrastructure development projects, is becoming an increasingly important market.
* What steps should Russian producers take to expand their presence in global markets and build more systematic integration into global supply chains and the long-term development programmes of foreign partners?
* What should the government do to better support and develop exports?

Putting Domestic Investment to Work to Drive Expansion :
* In fast-growing economies, the main sources of economic growth are domestic and private investment.
* Corporate profits, private savings, and state and non-governmental pension funds can all be more effectively channelled into financing productive elements of the Russian economy, providing needed corporate and infrastructure funding while enhancing productivity.
* What mechanisms should the government and regulators consider for facilitating safe deployment of domestic savings into return- generating ventures?
* Should the corporate bond market or other alternative investment instruments be developed further?
* What is the role of investment in diversifying the economy and which sectors can demonstrate the greatest potential?

Labour Mobility and the Future of the Social Contract Between the Company and Employees :
* Labour mobility, particularly for young people early in their careers, is an important aspect for gaining experience and professional development.
* However the mass exodus of a skilled, youthful workforce can have a negative impact on local communities.
* How can the trend of labour migration best be managed and what incentives should be put in place to create sustainable development models for local communities?
* How can companies create the right environment to retain talent and provide career progression?
* And what is the role of education in underpinning labour mobility strategies? 

University Education in a Changing World :
* Finding the right balance in the relationship between business and universities has been a subject of debate for more than a century.
* The issue has become even more pertinent in recent years as the university of the future will not only have to educate its students, but also develop their technological and business skills and instill a culture of entrepreneurship.
* Do the challenges in modern education require a fundamental rethinking of paradigms and approaches or
* is the role of the university simply to ensure that graduates find jobs?
* How can universities become the epicentre of change and development for a region, industries, or a country, and are these models universal?
* How should Russia’s higher education system be organized and should it retain its current department- and industry-based structure?

Public Private Partnerships:
* There are currently 873 PPP projects underway in Russia, with the total volume of private investment topping RUB 640.3 billion.
* Most concessionary projects are in housing and utilities, and 2015 was a year 
of huge growth in the sector, with a tenfold increase in investment volumes over the previous year.
* How can this growth be explained and can the housing and utilities experience be applied to other sectors?
* Has the potential for international investment in the real economy been exhausted and what can be done to make such opportunities more attractive to foreign capital?
* Are additional measures needed to stimulate private investment in housing and utilities?

Mutual Funding in Rental Housing: To Trust or Not to Trust?

• Mutual funding in rental housing is a modern and innovative investment tool to spur growth in the Russian housing market.
* What might be the impact of collective investment on rental housing and could this lead to the economic revival of the sector?
* Could this tool be considered as an alternative to private ownership and what are the benefits and risks involved for citizens, government, and businesses?


After a few hours of web surfing & note taking, I was able to identify a variety of investments/investors who stand to benefit from the lifting of the existing sanctions on Russia -- but also stand to lose if the sanctions are not lifted in a timely manner....

(I also found the trail between the 19.5% and Trump's Blackstone buddies ... only to stumble across the article linked below & learn that I had effectively reinvented the wheel as this connection had already been discovered...)

Yasenevo will likely go to clean up mode

••••••• my findings•••••••
The Exxon component is far greater than just the highly publicized $1billion loss from the Arctic Drilling project that was halted due to the sanctions .....

1998 Tillerson was head of Exxon's
Neftgas Ltd
Neftgas + Rosneft = Sakhalin-1 (Siberian coast)

Tillerson CEO/Pres. Exxon
& Sechin takes over Rosneft

Rosneft + Exxon = Strategic Cooperation Agreement
Explore/Exploit Arctic & Black Sea
* Rosneft subsidiary gets 30% equity in Exxon's La Escalera Ranch project in W.Texas
* Rosneft gets rights to acquire 30% of Exxon Holdings (20 blocks) in Gulf of Mexico
* Rosneft subsidiary RNCardium oil acquires 30% of Exxon's stake in Canada -- Cardium formation to develop tar sands reserve

2012 Neftgas Holdings incorporates (Pável Ilyasov)

2013 Exxon had rights to
11.4 million acres in Russia &
(14.6 million in the US)

2014 Exxon had rights to
63.7 million acres in Russia

Sanctions halted Arctic drilling but did not prohibit acquisition of rights for future projects

Exxon holdings w/ OAO Rosneft include
* Laptev & Chukchi Seas
* Kara & Black Seas
These rights have expiration dates from 2017 -2023
and are to planned to begin contribution in 2020

Kara & Black Seas will cost estimated $350billion to develop

June 2016
St. Petersburg Economic Forum
Sechin (Rosneft) gives Tillerson (Exxon) thumbs up when Tillerson is asked about Sanctions and he says he will leave that to the governments...
(what does Sechin know?)

October 2016
Rosneft acquired Essar Oil (Indian Refinery- 400,000 bpd)
for $13billion
Includes: port terminals, power plants & pumps

Nov/Dec 2016
Rosneft acquired 30% of
Shouroulk in Egypt and its Zohr offshore gas field from Italy's ENI SPA for $1.575 billion

Dec. 2016
Rosneft Trading SA
Loans $1.5billion to
Venezuela PDV SA against 49.9% of US CITGO Holdings / CITGO Petroleum
Which includes 3 refineries and pipelines (749,000 bpd)
* Corpus Christi, Tx
* Lemont, Illinois
* Lake Charles, La. (6th largest in US)
(Hmmmm... sounds like a down payment on a future sale ... contingent upon sanctions being lifted)

Rosneft ownership is roughly
19.25% BP
19.50% QHG******
10% Russian Stock Market
50% Russia
1.25% other

The QHG 19.5% = the mystery shares referenced in the Steele/Trump Dossier ...

Russia's VTB temporarily loaned QHG 10.2billion (euro) to purchase the 19.5% of Rosneft

The loan was satisfied by a combination of payments:
300million euros from GlenCore
2.5 billion from Qatar
5.2 billion from Intesa SanPaolo on behalf of QHG (loan)
2.2billion ???? Not clear

QHG is made up of GlenCore & Qatar...
GlenCore = BP + Qatar

Lists as a director
Peter Grauer (Bloomberg) also a
director - Blackstone

QHG's loan from Intesa SanPaolo (Italian bank) who has partnership with GSO Capital division of Blackstone

Russian source says
QHG likely to default on loan

(Strange, Qatar has hundreds of billions... why finance? Why default? Perhaps just the mutually trusted neutral middleman?)

Meaning Intesa or whomever it assigns the loan to (GSO Capital/ Blackstone) will own that 19.5% upon default by QHG.... likely to occur immediately after sanctions are lifted.

Twilight Zone - Alternative Collusion

I have repeatedly found myself asking:

What motivates 45 to do /say things that are so blatantly detrimental to the possibility of engaging in virtually any degree of successful collusion?

* If your campaign benefits from investments and other various questionable acts of Russian support obtained in exchange for your promise to reciprocate by using the powers of office once elected...
why would you purposely draw attention to anything even remotely related to Russia...
much less continuously express your admiration of Vlad ?

* if your collusion agreement requires you to fill your cabinet with wealthy elites who cannot separate from their multiple conflicts of interest in order to meet divestiture and ethical standards....
why create increased opportunities for heightened scrutiny by failing to ensure that they, at the very least, submit all required paperwork in a timely manner?

* if successfully fulfilling your part of the deal requires the appointment of minimally qualified / inexperienced cabinet secretaries..
why would you choose candidates who are well known for their public opposition to the principles, missions & purposes of the very departments for which they have been nominated?

* if you intend to engage in the long term exploitation of the powers of office in order to maximize personal gains &/or to fulfill terms of collusive agreements...
why would you immediately institute a "travel" ban that would instantaneously create a world wide disruption at multiple international airports during peak travel time?

* if you are going to play a round of golf with your collusion co-conspirators at a location where both members of the press and the general public are known to be present...
why would you unnecessarily arouse the suspicions of an entire group of naturally inquisitive reporters by pointedly covering the windows of their assigned location?

* if collusive benefits are in any way related to foreign petroleum reserves...
why would you publicly discuss/mention the possibility of future opportunities to forcibly seize foreign petroleum ...
much less repeat the statement while addressing the members of the Intelligence Community ??

* if you intend to hire people tied to Goldman Sachs...
why would you constantly demonize your opponent for their ties to Goldman Sachs?

This all seems about as illogical as the idea of a masked bank robber standing at a busy intersection flailing his arms wildly -
while holding bags of cash & a gun-
in an attempt to catch a cab
While actually expecting that all who pass by- pedestrians, police, & commuters, alike -
will just smile and wave back as if participating in a parade.

Yet that is pretty much consistent with the collective GOP response thus far....

No matter
* how massive the conflict of interest,
* How unqualified the nominee,
* how detrimental the policy,
* how fiscally unsound the allocation, or
* how absurdly false the assertion...
* how blatantly obvious the collusion

The VP, House & Senate & Administration GOP members just smile and wave as they repeatedly choose to approve, support, defend, & condone every egregious act / request 45 puts before them ---

Now, even the most egotistical con man recognizes that the chances of this collective GOP acquiescence occurring naturally are slim to none...

So, it is safe to assume that 45 has some concrete tangible form of insurance in place to encourage long term compliance...

Yet, insurance alone does not guarantee that the collusion will not be investigated & possibly even prosecuted...

So why subject oneself to such an immense amount of risk?
Or better yet, how might 45 eliminate the risk all together?

Every con has a contingency plan (or 2) just in case things go off course, so what is 45's plan B?

How could an all but guaranteed epic fail be turned into an amazing victory & evidence of campaign promises kept, in the eyes of his followers?


45 just needs to be the first one to make a deal...
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