Polybius
Polybius's JournalManchin to vote "no" on Senate Democrats' abortion access bill amid fallout from draft Supreme Court
Source: CBS News
Washington — The Senate is set to vote Wednesday afternoon on whether to advance legislation that would enshrine the right to an abortion established in Roe v. Wade into federal law, as Democrats scramble to protect abortion access nationwide after a draft Supreme Court opinion indicated the high court may overturn its near-50-year-old decision.
Democratic leaders are pressing ahead with the procedural vote even though it is almost certain to fail to garner the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster, arguing the need to bolster abortion rights at the federal level is too urgent to ignore.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced last week the Senate would vote to proceed to the bill, called the Women's Health Protection Act, days after the draft majority opinion was leaked and published. But all 50 GOP senators are expected to vote against ending debate on the bill and at least one Democrat, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, will join them.
Manchin was the sole Democrat to join Republicans in blocking the measure when it was taken up by the Senate in February, and he told reporters ahead of Wednesday's vote that he would support legislation that solely enshrines Roe's protections into law, which he said would be the "reasonable, rational thing to do."
Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-abortion-bill-vote-womens-health-protection-act-supreme-court-draft-opinion-roe-v-wade/
Trump-backed Rep. Mooney wins W.Va. Republican House primary
Source: NBC News
Rep. Alex Mooney defeated Rep. David McKinley in the GOP primary for West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District on Tuesday, a victory for former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Mooney.
In a rare matchup of incumbents, McKinley and Mooney faced off after the state lost one of its congressional seats amid declining population and their districts were combined.
Trump backed Mooney after McKinley voted for the bipartisan infrastructure package and the effort to create a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
"Serving the people of West Virginia has been the honor of my life. I’m proud that I have always stood up for what’s right for West Virginia — even when it hurt me politically," McKinley said in a statement. "The groundwork we have laid over the last twelve years has paved the way for a more prosperous and diverse West Virginia economy."
At Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania last week, Mooney called McKinley “a total RINO,” an acronym for "Republican in name only" frequently used as an insult to mean someone is insufficiently conservative or loyal to the party.
Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/trump-backed-rep-mooney-wins-w-va-republican-house-primary-rcna27685
Manchin stays firm in face of abortion leak: "We've protected women's rights with the filibuster"
On Tuesday, asked whether he'd get rid of the cloture threshold in order to enshrine Roe into law, Manchin told reporters that "the filibuster is the only protection we have in democracy."
"We've protected women's rights with the filibuster," he added.
In the past, Manchin has consistently defended the filibuster despite progressive calls to limit or eliminate it altogether.
Read more...
Mitch McConnell says a national abortion ban is 'possible' as GOP candidates dodge topic
Source: USA Today
WASHINGTON — Republicans are on the verge of a long-sought legal victory — striking down Roe v. Wade — but their political candidates are in no rush to talk about it on the campaign trail.
GOP campaign officials are advising candidates to downplay and soft-pedal the prospects of anti-abortion legislation as they battle pro-choice Democrats for control of Congress and various statehouses across the country.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell told USA Today that a national abortion ban is possible if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.
Said McConnell: “With regard to the abortion issue, I think it’s pretty clear where Senate Republicans stand.”
Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/05/07/mitch-mcconnell-says-federal-abortion-ban-possible-gop-dodges-topic/9687867002/?gnt-cfr=1
CNN poll: The Supreme Court's draft opinion on Roe v. Wade hasn't shaken the midterm landscape
Sixty-six percent say Roe v. Wade should not be completely struck down, and 59% would support Congress passing legislation to establish a nationwide right to abortion, including 81% of Democrats, 65% of independents and 30% of Republicans, the survey finds.
But comparing the results of the new poll to one conducted immediately before the revelation of the draft opinion, the impact on the political landscape heading into the 2022 midterms appears fairly muted.
The share of registered voters who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall rose 6 points between the first survey and the second, but that increase is about even across party lines. Among Democrats, 43% now say they are extremely or very enthusiastic, up 7 points. Among Republicans, it's 56%, up 9 points. And voters who say overturning Roe would make them "happy" are nearly twice as enthusiastic about voting this fall as those who say such a ruling would leave them "angry" (38% extremely enthusiastic among those happy, 20% among those angry).
Read more...
Republicans up 49% to 42% in their generic vote. An outlier for sure, but still troubling...
What are the chances that if a national abortion law passes, it would get struck down?
On what grounds? 10 Amendment? Something else? Or would it hold up in court?
New Senate primary polls in PA
From Franklin & Marshall College Poll, May
Democratic primary: Fetterman 53%, Lamb 14%, Kenyatta 4%
Republican primary: Oz 18%, McCormick 16%, Barnette 12%
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