Polybius
Polybius's Journal538: 53% chance Republicans win Senate
Ok, what's going on? July 19th was the last time Republicans chances have been this high.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo
On average, why do Republicans prefer do vote on Election Day, while Democrats prefer to vote early?
I mean, on the surface of things, it should be the same, as it's only a preference. If you took a poll on who likes pepperoni on their pizza, I'm sure it wouldn't be partisan. Yet it's not like that at all. I am an exception, as I like to vote in person on Election day. The school where I vote is a mile away, and the longest I ever waited in line was 40 minutes in 2012. My reason? I like to see for myself how turnout is going.
However, I'm the only Democrat I know that doesn't vote early. On the flip side, I only know one Republican who votes early, and he says he only does it because he is 80 years old. So my question is why?
Election Day is one week away! Who do you think will win?
Obviously, we all want the good guys to win, but with one week till Election Day, what do you think is the most likely scenario?
538 puts Senate control at 50-50 this morning
First time since July 22nd. Any idea what caused this? Haven't polls looked good the past two days, such as PA?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo
Vicious election denier and Arizona SoS candidate Mark Finchem was suspended on Twitter
His account is in read-only mode (meaning he can't Tweet). He's a sick election denier, even more so than Kari Lake. Apologies for the link to insane right-winger Jenna Ellis' Twitter.
Elon Musk says he's looking into it.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587216645138817025
Italy's Meloni picks Nazi-armband lawmaker as junior minister
Source: Reuters
ROME, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Galeazzo Bignami, a lawmaker of the rightist Brothers of Italy party who sparked outrage in 2016 after a newspaper published a picture of him wearing a Nazi swastika on his left arm, was named junior infrastructure minister on Monday.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who personally announced Bignami's appointment at a news conference, is the leader of Brothers of Italy, a group which traces its roots to the post-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI).
Bignami, 47, was elected last month to a second term in parliament. He has long been part of the Italian hard-right but has spent part of his political career in former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's more moderate Forza Italia.
He said in a statement on Monday that he felt "profound shame" for the pictures and firmly condemned "any form of totalitarianism," calling Nazism and any movement connected to it "the absolute evil".
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-meloni-picks-nazi-armband-lawmaker-junior-minister-2022-10-31/
Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid
Source: NBC News
Its become routine since Russia invaded Ukraine: President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speak by phone whenever the U.S. announces a new package of military assistance for Kyiv.
But a phone call between the two leaders in June played out differently from previous ones, according to four people familiar with the call. Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy hed just greenlighted another $1 billion in U.S. military assistance for Ukraine when Zelenskyy started listing all the additional help he needed and wasnt getting. Biden lost his temper, the people familiar with the call said. The American people were being quite generous, and his administration and the U.S. military were working hard to help Ukraine, he said, raising his voice, and Zelenskyy could show a little more gratitude.
Administration officials said Biden and Zelenskyys relationship has only improved since the June phone call, after which Zelenskyy made a statement praising the U.S. for its generous assistance. But the clash reflects Bidens early awareness that both congressional and public support for sending billions of dollars to Ukraine could begin to fade. That moment has arrived just as the president prepares to ask Congress to greenlight even more money for Ukraine.
Biden now faces resistance from some Republicans and Democrats that wasnt present when Congress approved previous Ukraine funds. The White House has discussed asking Congress for billions of dollars during the lame-duck legislative session after the midterm elections.
Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorses Mehmet Oz
I thought they were a liberal newspaper? WTF? If they had trouble with Fetterman, they should have stayed neutral.
Mr. Oz hammered on and sometimes misrepresented Mr. Fettermans criminal justice policies, even though a U.S. senator has nothing to do with state criminal justice and sentencing policies. Mr. Fetterman, in turn, characterized Mr. Ozs legitimate calls for Mr. Fetterman to release his medical records as mean-spirited and insensitive. His campaign huffed and puffed over Mr. Ozs use of crudites for raw vegetables on a platter. It was, admittedly, a tone-deaf blunder, but hardly a pivotal matter in the U.S. Senate race.
During Tuesdays debate, after hundreds of thousands of votes had already been cast, voters finally learned something about where the candidates stood. They learned, among other things, that Mr. Oz opposes federal intervention in abortion rights, and Mr. Fetterman supports the broader Constitutional guarantees provided by the overturned Roe v. Wade decision. They learned Mr. Fetterman supports a federally mandated $15-an-hour minimum wage, and Mr. Oz wants market forces to raise wages. They learned both candidates support fracking. They also learned both men are politicians, as they ducked and dodged questions about why they had changed their minds on fracking.
Neither candidate has experience as a U.S. senator. Given the lack of substance during the campaign, many voters will have to make a leap of faith on Nov. 8.
Read more...
Alaska Senate race
Is Lisa Murkowski still a lock to win this race? Can MAGA Kelly Tshibaka get the most votes after ranked-choice? Or will Republicans split the vote so that the Democrat (Pat Chesbro) can get elected? Murkowski voters hate Tshibaka. That's ever more true for Tshibaka voters, so they won't get many second choice votes (like what happened with Palin). Any chance we can win this?
Remember, Palin was expected to win too, and look how that turned out for her!
538 Senate forecast
538 has the Senate winning percentage 52-48 in our favor, which they classify as a dead heat. July 27th was the last time it was this low, while July 21st was the last time Republicans were in the lead. Our peak was 71%, from September 13th to 19th. Hovering over each state will tell you that state's candidate's chances of winning.
I personally don't agree with some, such as GA where they give Walker a 53% chance of winning. Others I think they have way too high, such as Lee winning in Utah (95%), and Vance in Ohio (78%).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo
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Member since: Thu Sep 28, 2017, 10:03 PM
Number of posts: 15,385