honest.abe
honest.abe's JournalAZ MARICOPA COUNTY: We can expect next "vote drop" of results in 6pm hour, again. MST, of course.
I am assuming this vote drop should put an end to any speculation that Lake could win.
Finally!
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592254136221073409
AZ Gov big update just a few moments ago - Lake net gain +8,911 not near enough
97k ballots dropped in Maricopa
@KariLake 54.6%
@katiehobbs 45.4%
Lake net gain +8,911
Updated numbers:
KATIE HOBBS 50.5% 1,211,595
KARI LAKE 49.5% 1,185,584
I think this means Hobbs wins.
Ralston NV this morning: "if the trend continues, she [CCM] is going to win."
Bottom line: This first batch of 35K mail ballots shows a partisan breakdown that strongly favors CCM, and if the trend continues, she is going to win.
But miles to go before I can finally sleep, and we will know a LOT when Clark/Washoe post tonight.
There are alot numbers flying around his twitter account but the bottom line CCM is likely to win.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports
NV: Tweet from Jon Ralston just a few moments ago.
This, from @JohnRSamuelsen, who has been unerring in his predictions of what is left to be reported because he has been tracking the mail file at Clark County, makes the most sense:
50K Clark ballots uncounted
26K counted and should be reported tonight.
We will find out soon.
This dump of 26K votes tonight should be telling.
I am beginning to think the likely outcome of these mid-terms is going to be good for us.
I know its not over but it does look like the R's will take the House and we keep the Senate.
Keeping the Senate allows Biden to get judges and other nominations approved. Also adds a firewall to stop any bogus legislation the House tries to push through although Biden would veto it anyway.
Republican control of the House will probably go to their head and will attempt to do crazy things just to harass Biden like investigations into Hunter Biden, the FBI and DOJ. These will fail and will remind voters Republicans are not fit to govern. But I think the biggest mistake they are going to make will be regarding the debt ceiling. I think they are going to hold the country hostage by not approving a debt ceiling increase. I think there will be a government shutdown and Biden wont flinch. I wont predict what specifically will happen but I believe Joe will win this face off and will come off looking like an amazing leader and make the Republicans look like desperate fools.
This will be an excellent precursor to the elections in 2024.
Ransomware targeting healthcare systems
From Axios..
Why it matters: The attack earlier this month on CommonSpirit Health, which has 142 hospitals in 21 states, left IT locked, delayed surgeries and caused widespread disruptions in patient care.
It also left millions of patients waiting at least two weeks to learn if their personal information was compromised, experts say.
There's been a nearly 50% increase in interactive intrusion campaigns this year, with some of the most notable increases against health institutions, per a recent report from Cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike.
In 2021, 45 million individuals were affected by healthcare attacks, up from 34 million in 2020, Fierce Healthcare reported.
At least 68 healthcare providers in the U.S. were impacted by ransomware in 2021, including multiple hospitals and multi-hospital health systems with a total of 1,203 sites between them, according to cybersecurity firm Emisoft.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/health-ransomware-attack-vulnerability
The company I work for is doing a simulation of an attack to prepare for if/when it happens to us. As an IT/software professional I can see how this is a huge risk to almost any organization. All it takes is someone who has admin access to a server and has an open Remote Desktop session and at the same time opening emails and clicking a link or downloading an attachment that has the ransomware virus. The virus executes and "sees" the RDP connection and jumps to the server and installs itself. Once there is begins to encrypt every file on the server. Then the ransomware criminals send emails to the organization leadership telling them to pay up to get the encryption key. If they dont pay (in Bitcoin), they begin to publicly expose sensitive data from the server. So it many cases organizations pay up because the risk is so high.
So by paying up they perpetuate the problem. In fact its becoming a big business model with more and more ransomware groups going online.
Its a huge problem that needs to be resolved. One "solution" would be stop paying the ransom. Bitcoin is also part of the problem in that the ransom payments cannot be traced.
How much do house prices need to decline to make up for higher interest rates
We are planning to move to Atlanta area sometime next year. The rising interest rates have us a bit concerned we are going to get hosed on our mortgage. However, the areas we are looking are showing some significant price drops. Maybe on average around 5-10%. We were wondering if the price will drop off enough to make up for higher interest rates. Here is a table that shows that calculation for several price points and interest rate levels. 
https://therentalwire.com/blog/home_prices_interest_rates_sensitivity.html
We are certainly not at the point where price drops have made up for higher interest rates but it could get there.. but of course interest rates could go even higher which makes things even more difficult. Of course I know many will say 6-7% interest rates are not that high based on historical rates. Yes, but that was in the day when housing affordability was much better than it is now.
IMF: Interest rate increases could spur a harsh global recession and "the worst is yet to come"
The grim assessment was detailed in the fund’s closely watched World Economic Outlook report, which was published as the world’s top economic officials traveled to Washington for the annual meetings of the World Bank and the I.M.F.
The gathering arrives at a fraught time, as persistent supply chain disruptions and Russia’s war in Ukraine have led to a surge in energy and food prices over the last year, forcing central bankers to raise interest rates sharply to cool off their economies. Raising borrowing costs will probably tame inflation by slowing business investment and consumer spending, but higher rates could also yield a new set of problems: a cascade of recessions in rich nations and debt crises in poor ones.
There are growing fears among policymakers that a so-called soft landing will elude the global economy. “In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” the International Monetary Fund report said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/business/imf-world-economy-forecast.html
Perhaps I am completely clueless regarding global economics but I think I would rather deal with high priced eggs and potatoes than a harsh worldwide recession.
Bernanke: Federal Reserve shouldn't use interest-rate policy to fine-tune financial stability risks
Speaking to reporters at the Brookings Institution after he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, Bernanke said the “first line of defense” is to have strong regulation in place.
“I don’t think we understand that well enough, except in perhaps extreme conditions, to try to fine-tune financial stability using monetary policy,” Bernanke said.
Many Wall Street analysts have argued that the Fed should moderate the rapid pace of its rate increases to avoid something breaking in financial markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/49732cf8-8231-3a93-89ca-c2d86b1e3626/bernanke-says-fed-shouldn%E2%80%99t.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-says-fed-shouldnt-use-interest-rates-to-fine-tune-financial-stability-risks-11665431037
I trust Bernanke more than Powell on this matter.
Stocks and 401ks are tanking, mortgage rates jumping, real estate markets in turmoil, and inflation still not under control. Clearly what Powell is doing is not working. I think he needs to be replaced by someone like Bernanke.
As things worsen for Trump I think we are going to see Dem candidate gains across the board.
Trump is the face of the Republican party. Few R candidates have distanced themselves from him and in fact just the opposite. Those candidates will have a very hard time removing the Trump albatross from their necks by Nov. Even those who are not Trump loyalists will be also be affected just by being a Republican. This could be the "October Surprise" that preserves our control of both the Senate and the House.
We may actually be "thanking" Trump come election day!
Profile Information
Member since: Sun Dec 3, 2017, 10:40 AMNumber of posts: 8,678
