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honest.abe

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Member since: Sun Dec 3, 2017, 10:40 AM
Number of posts: 4,815

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James Comey says he's backing Biden for president

Former FBI Director James Comey announced that he’d voted in his first ever Democratic primary on Tuesday, backing Joe Biden in the race to challenge President Donald Trump in November.

Comey, who led the FBI during the Obama administration before being fired by Trump just months into his presidency, said on Twitter he pulled the lever for the party “dedicated to restoring values” in the White House and indicated he voted for the former vice president he once worked under.

Echoing comments from Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out of the race on the eve of Tuesday’s primaries in more than a dozen states and backed Biden, Comey wrote that “I agree with @amyklobuchar: We need [a] candidate who cares about all Americans and will restore decency, dignity to the office.”

He then argued that his vote was based on a belief that Biden is the strongest candidate to defeat Trump: "There is a reason Trump fears @JoeBiden and roots for Bernie.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/jame-comey-backing-joe-biden-119614

I blame Comey for helping Trump win in 2016 but I welcome his vote and his positive comments. This will resonate with Independents and moderate Republicans.

Biden campaign predicts Texas upset over Sanders

Texas is crucial to Biden’s effort to make the Democratic primary a one-on-one contest against frontrunner Bernie Sanders, who’s expected to win the biggest state of all on Super Tuesday, California.

“I expect to win Texas,” boasted Cristobal Alex, a senior adviser to Biden and native of El Paso, Texas. “The polls don’t account for results in South Carolina, which are game-changing. ...This is more than anything a numbers game and it’s about math.”

--snip--

Sanders made a swing through the Lone Star State after dominating in Nevada Feb. 20 -- right as early voting started, making prognosticators in the state predict those numbers will favor Sanders.

However, three-quarters of the electorate that cast early ballots are over the age of 40 according to Ryan Data & Research, a Texas political analytics firm that tracks early votes. That could be an advantage for Biden, who generally polls well with middle-aged and older voters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/biden-texas-sanders-super-tuesday-119207

I think Biden wins TX by 10+ pts. The rally last night and Beto's big endorsement are huge. Biden's campaign is running on all cylinders at the moment. Sanders is stuck in 2nd gear.

Sanders just dropped below 1600 forecasted delegates on 538

Sanders: 1599
Biden: 1455
Bloomberg: 595
Warren: 243

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Joe only trails by 144 delegates. By tomorrow I suspect Biden will take the lead and never look back.

NOTE: Biden + Bloomberg = 2050. A majority.

538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off.

It’s hard to avoid thinking of Bloomberg’s bid as a kind of political science experiment — a test of whether an elderly, extraordinarily wealthy ex-Republican can run a competitive campaign almost entirely on the basis of his own advertising and a big, generously paid staff. That experiment will play out across the country this week, when Bloomberg will finally appear on the ballot after a bizarre campaign in which he entered the race late, skipped the four early states and focused instead on winning the trove of delegates that await on Super Tuesday.

And California is, in many ways, the maximal test of Bloomberg’s strategy. He’s invested a lot in other big Super Tuesday states like Texas, but California is the state where his dollars should carry him the furthest, because its media markets are so expensive and the state’s large, diverse population makes it hard to set up an effective ground game.

His spending spree has certainly gotten him somewhere in California. Bloomberg is now polling around 13 percent in California, according to our average, up from 4 percent in January. But Californians also love to tell you about the self-funded candidates who have tried — and failed — to spend their way into public office. Take Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Michael Huffington or Al Checchi. After this Tuesday, we’ll know whether Bloomberg will join that inglorious pantheon or whether California’s unexpected contribution to the Democratic nomination process is the elevation of a self-funded billionaire’s candidacy.

Right now, it seems like Bloomberg will finish in third or fourth place even though he has spent tens of millions of dollars in the state. But after seeing Bloomberg’s swanky office, I wanted to find out how ordinary Californians were feeling about his campaign. After spending several days talking to voters across Los Angeles, one thing became clear: Bloomberg’s spending has bought him notoriety, but hasn’t translated into widespread enthusiasm.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-bet-big-on-california-it-might-not-pay-off/

If Bloomberg's big bet fails in California, Biden will likely be the beneficiary, and not just in California but in other states where Bloomberg was polling high. It does appear the stars are aligning for a big day for Biden tomorrow.

New CA poll post SC: Biden gets 7 point bump

Bernie Sanders still has a large lead in the California primary, but after the South Carolina primary it has shrunk significantly due to a 7-point bump for Joe Biden since Point Blank Political’s last survey. Sanders’ 33.9-percent vote-share is largely unchanged since PBP’s pre-South Carolina poll, but Biden’s support has increased from 14 percent to 21.6 percent after his victory in South Carolina. This is the third California poll Point Blank Political has conducted in the last week; over the last week Joe Biden has seen a 10-point increase following the debates and South Carolina. All other candidates’ support was largely unchanged, except for Pete Buttigieg who’s support dropped 3 percent in the waning hours of his now suspended campaign. The data was collected during the 24-hour period from the evening of February 29th, just as Biden declared victory in South Carolina, to the evening of March 1st, just as Buttigieg was suspending his campaign. The sample size was 1220 and the margin of error is 4.1 percent (95-percent confidence interval).

The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The model’s weighting efficiency was 45 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or overrepresented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.

https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/2020-ca-dem-primary-post-sc/

This is good news for Biden but I suspect the vote tomorrow will be even better for him. If accurate this will be a huge blow to Sanders plan to accumulate a big lead over Biden after Super Tuesday. In fact I think ST is going to be a wash with neither candidate (Biden or Sanders) gaining much on the other.

538: What Biden's Big South Carolina Win Might Mean

Interesting analysis by Nate Silver.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-bidens-big-south-carolina-win-might-mean-for-sanders/

I think its a combination of hypothesis 4 and 5... which would be very good for Biden and bad for Sanders.

The results from tonight probably mean Sanders will not have a significant plurality..

much less a majority. Which means Biden is well positioned to win this on the second ballot.

Steyer drops out.

MSNBC alert.

That will help Biden.

One more final SC poll! Emerson College shows Biden with 16% lead.

A final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar South Carolina poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 41%, Senator Bernie Sanders at 25%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Businessman Tom Steyer tied at 11% each. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren are at 6% and 5% respectively, with Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard at 2%.

The South Carolina Emerson College/Nexstar poll was conducted February 26-February 27, 2020. The sample for the Democratic Primary consisted of registered Democratic, Independent and Republican very likely voters, n=550, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted based on gender, age, ethnicity, party, education, region, and mode based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=275), cell phones (n=93) and online panel provided by MTurk (n=182).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-2020-biden-poised-to-win-his-first-contest

Looking very good for the Biden campaign today. This should give him a big boost into Super Tuesday. Could change the entire trajectory of this primary.

It will be interesting to see how the Sanders campaign spins this huge loss in the first big diverse state primary. I would say its probably not a good idea to say "too many black folk".

NOTE: Operation Chaos Republicans were included in this poll.

SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13%

The poll had 650 respondents, with a mixed survey methodology of telephone respondents, online and online panel voters. It was conducted by a professional polling firm of voters statewide from Feb. 17-25. The survey has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8%, and a 95% confidence level for the results.

Voters in the poll were asked: "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

- Joe Biden 35%
- Tom Steyer 17%
- Bernie Sanders 13%
- Elizabeth Warren 8%
- Pete Buttigieg 8%
- Amy Klobuchar 4%
- Tulsi Gabbard 2%
- Unsure 12%

more: https://www.wyff4.com/article/clemsons-university-palmetto-poll-results-released-ahead-of-saturdays-primary/31116432
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