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bluewater

bluewater's Journal
bluewater's Journal
January 11, 2020

Podium order for the CNN/DMR debate Tuesday in Iowa

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1216035115865866240

Nice!

I am looking forward to this, the smallest Democratic primary debate to date.

January 11, 2020

Miss Black America Ryann Richardson endorses Pete Buttigieg for POTUS.

https://twitter.com/theGrio/status/1215717447778676737

This is a significant endorsement for Mayor Pete.

Her opinion piece is well worth reading.

January 9, 2020

Cory Booker calls out the Misogyny!

https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/1215341126695247873

Great job, Cory.

lol

But, yeah, women candidates are held to a different standard than their male counterparts.

Same old same old.


January 9, 2020

Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would catapult Mayor Pete

To front runner status.

Despite declining national polls, the publicity Mayor Pete would get by winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would be a tremendous boost for his campaign going forward.

Exceeding expectations in the early voting states more often than not proves decisive in later primaries, with the few exceptions proving the rule.

Some Mayor Pete detractors counter this argument by pointing out that he would probably lose decisively in South Carolina. But those detractors fail to acknowledge that the South Carolina Democratic primary is atypical, with 66% of the voters expected to be African Americans, a considerably higher proportion than in any other state primary.

Mayor Pete is surging, and yes, I mean surging, right now in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has had superb fundraising to fuel a well orchestrated ground game in both states. It is not inconceivable that he could win both states by at least 5%.

Mayor Pete's role as the first openly gay Presidential candidate makes him a truly transformational figure in American politics. Transformational candidates break down societal barriers and Mayor Pete deserves full credit for being one. The energy this all brings to his campaign is perhaps being underestimated by the national polling that often is overly impacted by name recognition among inattentive voters.


Well, if Mayor Pete achieves big wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his name recognition will certainly change.



Time will tell.

January 9, 2020

Klobuchar Readies For A Show Of Force Before Caucus

Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s Iowa campaign team is ready to prove it will be a force to be reckoned with caucus night.

Her team has put together a 99-county day of action currently scheduled for Saturday, which one team member says will be used as a bit of a practice run for the caucuses.

The campaign will host organizing events in all of Iowa’s counties and will include appearances by surrogates such as Klobuchar’s husband, John Bessler, former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin, various Iowa state senators, representatives and a whole gaggle of Minnesotans.

“By doing this thing this weekend, we are showcasing that we are organized and we are ready to go in all 99 counties, and that’s going to be one big piece to our success,” said Norm Sterzenbach, the campaign’s caucus advisor. “The caucuses are a delegate game and there are delegates in every precinct. To do well on caucus night, you need to do well across the state, not just in certain pockets.”

The campaign has certainly been working hard trying to reach every corner of the state. They’ve seen a 132.5% increase in precinct captain recruitment since the last debate and 101% increase in commit to caucus cards.

Klobuchar’s campaign also recently announced it has 100 paid staff members on the ground in Iowa, which has her team keeping pace with most of the front-runners in the race.

https://iowastartingline.com/2020/01/09/klobuchars-team-readies-for-a-show-of-force-before-caucus/

January 9, 2020

Elizabeth Warren STEAMROLLS Meghan McCain on The View



lol

Elizabeth Warren ignoring Meghan McCain's interruptions was the best!

Sorry, Meghan, But Warren gets to actually explain her positions when asked by the other hosts.



January 9, 2020

538's Iowa Endorsement Scorecard

https://twitter.com/apodkul/status/1215043894364246016

538 keeps this scorecard of which Democratic candidates are receiving the most support from prominent members of the party. Based on their relative status, each endorsement is assigned a point value.

FiveThirtyEight’s point scale:

10 points
Former presidents and vice presidents
Current national party leaders

8 points
Governors
6 points
U.S. senators

5 points
Former presidential and vice-presidential nominees
Former national party leaders
2020 presidential candidates who have dropped out

3 points
U.S. representatives
Mayors of large cities

2 points
Officials in statewide elected offices
State legislative leaders

1 point
Other Democratic National Committee members


So, to date, 538 gives Biden 3 points and Warren 2 points out of a total possible 24 points for Iowa.

No other candidates has received any.

Interesting.
January 9, 2020

Biden would handle Crisis best. Sanders best to avoid a new war.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1214961341208903686

Interesting.

Hmmm. Handle an international crisis more wisely or avoid war... both important, but maybe an edge to the importance of handing international crisis most wisely.

In any case...

the polls are what the polls are.
January 8, 2020

Warren turns things Around!

According to both 538's and The Economist's polling models.

The Economist:

Biden 27%
Sanders 17%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 4%

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/


538:

Biden 27.5%
Sanders 18.2%
Warren 15.6%
Buttigieg 7.2%
Bloomberg 5.2%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/


As a Warren supporter, I am very enheartened that she is over her mid-4th quarter decline and that her polling numbers have not only stabilized but are starting to climb again.

Just in time for when real voting starts next month!



January 8, 2020

Sigh. More good news for Biden.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1214553547003572224

Yes, that is the Morning Consult poll that is always strong for Joe, but, as I always say...

The polls are what the polls are.

Well, at least I can console myself that my preferred candidate, Elizabeth Warren, is starting to have an upswing according to 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

It's a start, but at least her mid-4th quarter decline is over, just in time for the first real voting in Iowa and New Hampshire!



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