Issued on: 22/03/2022 - 17:20

Two "super powerful bombs" rocked the city of Mariupol on Tuesday as Ukrainian authorities made a fresh attempt to rescue civilians from the besieged port city, which has suffered relentless shelling since Russia's invasion began almost a month ago. FRANCE 24 spoke to Deputy Mayor Sergei Orlov about the horrors civilians are having to face.

“Russia doesn’t want to allow Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to the Ukrainian side,” said Mariupol's Deputy Mayor Sergei Orlov. "They do all their best to evacuate them to Russia, to push them, to shell their houses ... It's criminal... It's war crimes..."

The plight of Mariupol, a city of 400,000 before the war, has been the most urgent humanitarian emergency since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly a month ago. Hundreds of thousands of residents are believed to be trapped inside under near constant shelling, with no access to food, water, power or heat.

ttps://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220322-mariupol-deputy-mayor-describes-scences-of-horror-in-embattled-city

On Friday (12 June 2020), the North Atlantic Council recognised Ukraine as an Enhanced Opportunities Partner. This status is part of NATO’s Partnership Interoperability Initiative, which aims to maintain and deepen cooperation between Allies and partners that have made significant contributions to NATO-led operations and missions.



As a NATO partner, Ukraine has provided troops to Allied operations, including in Afghanistan and Kosovo, as well as to the NATO Response Force and NATO exercises. Allies highly value these significant contributions, which demonstrate Ukraine’s commitment to Euro-Atlantic security.

As an Enhanced Opportunities Partner, Ukraine will benefit from tailor-made opportunities to help sustain such contributions. This includes enhanced access to interoperability programmes and exercises, and more sharing of information, including lessons learned.

“This decision recognises Ukraine’s strong contributions to NATO missions, and demonstrates the Alliance’s continued commitment to its partnerships despite the COVID-19 pandemic,” said NATO Spokesperson Oana Lungescu.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_176327.htm

People dig a grave in the street in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 20. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

Mariupol came under further heavy bombardment overnight, according to a Ukrainian officer inside the city.
“Bombs are falling every 10 minutes; Russian navy warships are shelling. Yesterday the soldiers defused four tanks, [as well as] armored vehicles and troops. We still need ammunition, anti-tank weapons and air defense," Captain Svyatoslav Palamar of the National Guard Azov Regiment in Mariupol told CNN. Palamar said he and his fellow fighters would not surrender in Mariupol.

Some background: The Russian-issued deadline for Mariupol authorities to surrender the city passed at 5 a.m. Moscow (10 p.m. ET Sunday), with Ukrainians rejecting the ultimatum.
The port city of Mariupol, which before the war was home to around 450,000 people, has been under near constant attack from Russian forces since early March with satellite images showing significant destruction to residential areas.

While the Russian ultimatum appeared to offer those who chose to surrender safe passage out of the city, it made no such guarantees for those remaining. Russia has repeatedly been accused of targeting civilians, with trapped residents describing the onslaught as "hell."

The Russian attacks have led to a total collapse in basic services, with residents unable to access gas, electricity or water. Bodies are being left in the street because there is either no one left to collect them, or it is simply too dangerous to try.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-21-22/h_aa76393e1b16e6be6d04b0acb9fb96d4

Germany, which relies heavily on Russian gas, has major concerns over securing supplies for next winter and is doing all it can to secure alternatives, Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck said Saturday. "If we do not obtain more gas next winter and if deliveries from Russia were to be cut then we would not have enough gas to heat all our houses and keep all our industry going," warned Habeck.

Supplies are "not yet completely guaranteed," Green Party member Habeck told Deutschlandfunk radio.
He added that the government of Europe's biggest economy was preparing for the possibility of shortages "which we hope can be avoided."
...

Berlin has come in for criticism over its opposition to an immediate embargo being imposed on Russian energy supplies as a means of choking off a major source of Moscow's foreign earnings. But Germany believes a boycott could cripple the German economy and saddle society with huge rises in energy prices as well as lead to shortages.

While Russia has come under fire for its war in Ukraine, Habeck conceded in a Friday interview with ARD television that, where energy policy is concerned, a moral dimension "does not really exist."

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220320-reliant-on-russian-gas-german-concerns-mount-over-winter-fuel-supplies

March 20, 2022

An initial analysis of damage in Mariupol shows widespread attacks across residential areas
Analysis of satellite images for a section of Mariupol found evidence of widespread damage across residential neighborhoods. At least 391 buildings in the study area were observed to have been damaged or destroyed in a part of the city that is dotted with schools and health facilities.



The analysis, by Unitar-Unosat, a United Nations research group, examined structures within a section of the eastern district of Livoberezhnyi. The group compared a satellite image captured on March 14 this year with imagery from June 2021.

Damaged structures included seven schools and four health facilities, according to the report. Livoberezhnyi, meaning “Left Bank,” is one of the city’s four administrative districts and is home to about 120,000 residents.

Russian forces have laid siege to Mariupol for nearly three weeks. Incessant shelling has blocked efforts to evacuate people and send aid, leaving the nearly half a million residents trapped with dwindling supplies of food, water and medicine.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html

Today at 12:39 a.m. EDT|Updated today at 3:40 p.m. EDT

Ukrainian forces appeared to be losing their grip Saturday on Mariupol, with Russian forces advancing farther into parts of the besieged southern port city.

Fierce fighting for control of the strategically important city continued to hinder search and rescue efforts for hundreds of civilians believed trapped beneath the rubble of a theater after Russia bombed it Wednesday. Other major population centers, including Kyiv and Kharkiv, remained in Ukrainian hands, as the Pentagon estimated that Russia’s troops were “stalled across the country.”

As the death toll rose, the United Nations said Friday that about 9.8 million of Ukraine’s 44 million people have fled or been internally displaced. Ten humanitarian corridors were opened Saturday to help civilians flee, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russian forces of committing war crimes by blocking deliveries of critical aid to people remaining in embattled cities. He called for “meaningful negotiations” with Moscow.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/19/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/

The mounting death toll in Ukraine has forced President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider concessions to Russia in order to bring an end to the devastating conflict, but the specific elements of any peace deal his government may be discussing with Moscow remain a mystery to Western leaders, said U.S. and European officials.

The secretive rounds of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators could hold the key to ending the conflict but also carry broader implications for European security depending on how the warring parties settle their differences. If Russian President Vladimir Putin can use military force to compel political change in Ukraine, he could use the same tactic elsewhere, U.S. and European officials fear.

The prospects of a near-term deal look bleak, diplomats say, but mixed signals from Zelensky about how close he is to striking an agreement have only heightened anxiety about the trajectory of the negotiations.

Russian forces commit war crimes by blocking aid, Zelensky says
Russia has sought to pummel Ukraine into submission through artillery barrages, cruise missile strikes and a severing of supply routes that have prompted a humanitarian disaster and forced more than 3 million people to flee the country.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mixed-signals-from-ukraine-e2-80-99s-president-and-his-aides-leave-west-confused-about-his-end-game/ar-AAVffAp?ocid=uxbndlbing

The Royal United Services Institute has been at the heart of military and security thinking for over 190 years. The Duke of Wellington and a number of other senior military commanders established the Institute in 1831, and some of the most influential thinkers in the 19th and 20th centuries worked or spoke at RUSI.

https://rusi.org/about/our-purpose/our-history

Indeed, the inability of Russian forces in the north to make ground after an operational pause has led some analysts to question whether the Russian army can in fact encircle Kyiv at all. In other theatres, Russian forces have made few gains against major cities, having captured only Kherson in the south so far, although it is likely that they will also take Mariupol.

However, an exclusive focus on cities – though understandable – may obscure more than it reveals. Though it seems clear that the initial Russian plan was based around a swift coup de main against Kyiv while the bulk of the Ukrainian army was pinned in the east opposite Donetsk and Luhansk, this is unlikely to remain the case. Even under best-case assumptions (from a Russian perspective), it is unlikely that Kyiv will be taken soon. However, it is worth considering that there is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity – alluded to by Vladimir Putin in his pledge to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine – the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO).

The position of this force is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes. Russian forces of the 58th Combined Arms Army and 22nd Army, pushing north from Crimea, have commenced assaults on Beryslav along the Dnieper, and appear likely to link up at Polohy with Russian separatist forces and the Eighth Combined Arms Army advancing from Donbas. Elements of the First Guards Tank Army and Sixth Combined Arms Army advancing past Kharkiv also appear to have largely eschewed attempts to take the city – focusing instead on reducing it with artillery while bypassing it as they advance south and west past Poltava, cutting the JFO off from escaping northwards. Finally, in the southwest, Russian forces of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division appear similarly intent on bypassing Mykolaiv but, notably, may not be advancing on Odessa. Instead, they appear to be advancing north, which could suggest a desire to seize the western banks of key crossing points over the Dnieper.

Viewed in conjunction, these advances present a troubling picture whereby the Ukrainian forces opposite Donetsk and Luhansk are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of the Dnieper. If this is indeed the focus of Russia’s approach, then the emphasis on Russia's ability to take major cities as a metric of success will have been an analytical error, as Russia appears more intent on pinning Ukrainian forces in cities like Kharkiv while it bypasses them. Indeed, preparations for an amphibious assault on Odessa may have been a feint, given that the ground forces such an assault could have linked up with appear to be moving north.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine