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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 03:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,169

Journal Archives

Democrats could pretty plausible shift the Senate to 50/50 next year

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1188871879597137920

Biden mum on running for second term if elected

Former Vice President Joe Biden in a new interview would not discuss the possibility of running for a second term in the White House if he is elected in 2020.

The Associated Press asked the Democratic candidate if he would promise to serve only one term. Biden responded by saying he would not make that vow.

“I feel good and all I can say is, watch me, you’ll see,” Biden said. “It doesn’t mean I would run a second term. I’m not going to make that judgment at this moment.”
Biden, 76, also said it's "legitimate" to ask about his age.

“Right now it’s a legitimate question to ask, just like it was legitimate to ask me when I was 29 years old running for the Senate, did I have enough judgment to be a senator,” Biden told the AP. “Right now, my age has brought with it a significant amount of experience in government and hopefully wisdom and some sound judgment.”

Biden is the second-oldest candidate in the Democratic field, behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is 78. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), another Democratic frontrunner, is 70 years old. President Trump, 73, is running for his second term.


Biden would be 81 at the start a second presidential term, while Sanders, who recently suffered a heart attack, would be 82.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/467643-biden-suggests-he-may-only-serve-one-term-as-president

Warren's wealth tax would solve economic inequality, says economist Gabriel Zucman

Taxing the rich to help the poor and middle class has defined the presidential campaigns of Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Skeptics of the proposal argue that a wealth tax of this magnitude is impractical, and will not generate the revenue that Senator Warren and supporters anticipate. But French economist Gabriel Zucman, an early proponent of the tax, argues otherwise.
Zucman, now author of the book “The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay,” joined The Final Round on Friday to discuss the profound effect the tax system has on American economic inequality, and how a wealth tax could change that.

‘The tax system is critically important’ to eradicating economic inequality

On Monday, Senator Elizabeth Warren unveiled an education plan that would dramatically increase federal funding for public schools over the next decade, siphoning money raised from her proposed wealth tax to cover the plan’s $450 billion cost. It is one of many proposals developed by the Massachusetts senator that depend almost wholly upon the success of her controversial wealth tax, which would impose a 2% annual tax on household net worth between $50 million and $1 billion.

Zucman said he believes such a tax could also be a solution to economic inequality exacerbated by the current U.S. tax system.

“Financial deregulation; the collapse of the minimum wage; higher college costs; the declining role of unions. All of these things have mattered a lot [to American economic inequality],” Zucman said. “But, when you try to look at the income and the wealth of the very rich, the tax system is critically important.

The U.S. used to have the most progressive tax system in the world, with top marginal income tax rates of more than 90% in the post-World War II decades, to estate tax rates to of close to 80% from the 1930s to the 1980s, and then you had a dramatic change in the 1980s. The top marginal income tax rate was reduced to 28%, and today, in 2018, for the first time in the last hundred years, billionaires have paid a lower tax rate – all taxes included – than the middle class and the working class. They pay 23% of their income in taxes; the rest of the population pays in between 25% and 30% of their income in taxes.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warrens-wealth-tax-would-solve-economic-inequality-says-economist-gabriel-zucman-154526411.html

How being second choice could put Elizabeth Warren on top

Many Democratic voters who support other candidates are also considering voting for her

WHEN THE Democratic Party’s fourth primary debate got under way in Westerville, Ohio, on October 15th, it quickly became clear that the presidential race had changed. Instead of attacking Joe Biden, the former vice-president and front-runner in the race, as they had in previous contests, the candidates turned much of their fire on Elizabeth Warren, a senator from Massachusetts.

According to The Economist’s latest polling figures, Ms Warren is now tied with Mr Biden for first place, having briefly led the Democratic field earlier this month. Her steady ascent shows little sign of stopping.

Her support comes from several important demographic groups among Democratic primary voters. According to YouGov, a pollster, 35% of self-described liberals now consider her their first choice to be their party’s nominee for president. Another 16% of moderates and 6% of conservatives also say she is their top pick. Ms Warren has won over 32% of white voters, 15% of black voters and 18% of Hispanics.

Even white voters without a college education now favour the professorial Ms Warren over her rivals. Of these voters, 27% say they would opt for her, compared with 22% for Mr Biden and 18% for Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont. That could put Ms Warren in a strong position to draw away part of Donald Trump’s core support.


https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/25/how-being-second-choice-could-put-elizabeth-warren-on-top

Creme de la Creme Polling Averages! Only the best polls for the DU readers!

Crème de la Crème Polling Averages! Random Live caller, A rated polls within the last 30 days only!

Every wonder what the polling averages would look like if they only used random live caller A rated polls?

Wonder no more... I present my homespun Crème de la Crème Polling Averages!

No online polls.

No robo-caller polls.

No unrated or C rated or even B rated polls!

All polls have to close within the last 30 days to be included, so here are the results:


Quinnipiac University: A- rated = Warren 28%, Biden 21% : +/- 4 margin of error (Oct 17-21)

CNN/SSRS: A- rated = Warren 19%, Biden 34% : +/- 5 margin of error (Oct 17-20)

Fox News/Anderson: A rated = Warren 22%, Biden 32% : +/- 5 margin of error (Oct 6-8)

IBD/TIPP: A- rated = Warren 27% Biden 26% : +/- 5 margin of error (Sept 26-Oct 3)

Monmouth University: A+ rated = Warren 28%, Biden 25% : +/- 5 margin of error (Sept 23-29)


Crème de la Crème Polling Averages : Warren 24.8% to Biden 27.6%

Lol THAT was amazing fun!

There are two big take-aways from this little exercise:

1. Warren and Biden are in a statistical TIE in A-rated truly random Live Caller polls, Biden with a +2.8% lead while the moe's are in the +/-4% to +/-5% range.

2. These A-rated live caller polls do not occur very frequently and there are so few of them. The polling landscape is overwhelmingly dominated these days by online polls, which I don't think most people realize.


It's amazing how this A-rated live caller poll average is so similar to the results on The Economist's Primary Polls tracker:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

They use some online polls while excluding others, but their model also has the race in a virtual tie with Biden leading +1%.

All in all this was a fun and thought provoking little exercise.


Tim Ryan responds to Trump's assinine tweet

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1187718219735408646

We will all miss you Tim. Keep fighting the good fight in Ohio.

David Axelrod: No grudge too small for the Commander-in-Chief.

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1187721672553648130

Trump is such an immense ass, it's beyond words.

Warren cutting into Biden's lead in new SC 2020 Democratic poll

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, surging nationally in recent weeks, is cutting into former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary, a new poll shows.
Warren has taken leads in other early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire as Biden has struggled in debates and with questions about his son serving on foreign company boards.

Still, one constant remains: Biden is the top choice in the South’s first primary.

But Biden’s lead in South Carolina, which had hovered around 20 percentage points since the summer, has shrunk in a Post and Courier-Change Research poll released Thursday.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13 percent and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 11 percent are the only two other candidates with double-digit results in South Carolina.

Biden’s support in Post and Courier-Change Research polls has fallen from a peak of 46 percent in May, soon after he formally entered the race. He lost 6 percentage points from the last poll taken in August.

The latest survey shows that Biden took a hit among women, especially African-Americans, months before the Feb. 29 primary.

He lost 13 percentage points among the crucial bloc who are part of the majority of S.C. Democratic primary voters. Biden is down 10 percentage points among all S.C. women.

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/warren-cutting-into-biden-s-lead-in-new-sc-democratic/article_3738ef56-f69f-11e9-97d4-9ff73bd65e23.html

Only the top five candidates have the polling qualifications for the December debate -- so far.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1187733437614034945

G. Elliot Morris: what's the rationale for tracking a poll with only 40 respondents??

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1187140315813167110

538 has some 'splaining to do...



538 lists both this Montana poll with 40 TOTAL respondents and the Wyoming poll with, sit down, just 14 respondents TOTAL.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/montana/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/wyoming/


For the love of god, why?

538 rates this pollster, Montana State University Billings, B+

I hope they update that rating soon.
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