bluewater
bluewater's JournalCreme de la Creme Polling Averages! Only the best polls for the DU readers!
Crème de la Crème Polling Averages! Random Live caller, A rated polls within the last 30 days only!
Every wonder what the polling averages would look like if they only used random live caller A rated polls?
Wonder no more... I present my homespun Crème de la Crème Polling Averages!
No online polls.
No robo-caller polls.
No unrated or C rated or even B rated polls!
All polls have to close within the last 30 days to be included, so here are the results:
Quinnipiac University: A- rated = Warren 28%, Biden 21% : +/- 4 margin of error (Oct 17-21)
CNN/SSRS: A- rated = Warren 19%, Biden 34% : +/- 5 margin of error (Oct 17-20)
Fox News/Anderson: A rated = Warren 22%, Biden 32% : +/- 5 margin of error (Oct 6-8)
IBD/TIPP: A- rated = Warren 27% Biden 26% : +/- 5 margin of error (Sept 26-Oct 3)
Monmouth University: A+ rated = Warren 28%, Biden 25% : +/- 5 margin of error (Sept 23-29)
Crème de la Crème Polling Averages : Warren 24.8% to Biden 27.6%
Lol THAT was amazing fun!
1. Warren and Biden are in a statistical TIE in A-rated truly random Live Caller polls, Biden with a +2.8% lead while the moe's are in the +/-4% to +/-5% range.
2. These A-rated live caller polls do not occur very frequently and there are so few of them. The polling landscape is overwhelmingly dominated these days by online polls, which I don't think most people realize.
It's amazing how this A-rated live caller poll average is so similar to the results on The Economist's Primary Polls tracker:
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
They use some online polls while excluding others, but their model also has the race in a virtual tie with Biden leading +1%.
All in all this was a fun and thought provoking little exercise.
Tim Ryan responds to Trump's assinine tweet
https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1187718219735408646We will all miss you Tim. Keep fighting the good fight in Ohio.
David Axelrod: No grudge too small for the Commander-in-Chief.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1187721672553648130Trump is such an immense ass, it's beyond words.
Warren cutting into Biden's lead in new SC 2020 Democratic poll
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, surging nationally in recent weeks, is cutting into former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary, a new poll shows.
Warren has taken leads in other early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire as Biden has struggled in debates and with questions about his son serving on foreign company boards.
Still, one constant remains: Biden is the top choice in the South’s first primary.
But Biden’s lead in South Carolina, which had hovered around 20 percentage points since the summer, has shrunk in a Post and Courier-Change Research poll released Thursday.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13 percent and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 11 percent are the only two other candidates with double-digit results in South Carolina.
Biden’s support in Post and Courier-Change Research polls has fallen from a peak of 46 percent in May, soon after he formally entered the race. He lost 6 percentage points from the last poll taken in August.
…
He lost 13 percentage points among the crucial bloc who are part of the majority of S.C. Democratic primary voters. Biden is down 10 percentage points among all S.C. women.
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/warren-cutting-into-biden-s-lead-in-new-sc-democratic/article_3738ef56-f69f-11e9-97d4-9ff73bd65e23.html
Only the top five candidates have the polling qualifications for the December debate -- so far.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1187733437614034945G. Elliot Morris: what's the rationale for tracking a poll with only 40 respondents??
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1187140315813167110538 has some 'splaining to do...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/montana/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/wyoming/
For the love of god, why?
538 rates this pollster, Montana State University Billings, B+
I hope they update that rating soon.
Trump campaign scoops up Biden's Latino voter web address, trolls his voter outreach
It didn't take long for the Trump campaign to figure out how to troll Joe Biden moments after the former vice president's campaign announced a Latino voter outreach program on Wednesday.
Biden, who spent the day campaigning across Pennsylvania and Iowa, announced "Todos Con Biden," a "national network of Latino supporters" working to help elect the former vice president earlier on Wednesday.
Now, the Trump campaign is using www.todosconbiden.com to mock the former vice president, with a landing page that says in both English and Spanish, "Oops, Joe forgot about Latinos." The page also links out to the president's own Latino outreach coalition "Latinos for Trump." And the @TodosConBiden Twitter account, in the possession of the Trump campaign, has already begun posting unflattering counter messaging targeting Biden.
The reelection team told ABC News they bought the URL for a "minimal cost" after the Trump campaign's coalition team noticed the URL for the new effort was still up for grabs.
...
"How the hell are you Joe Biden's campaign and you don't lock up the URL before you announce stuff?" Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican political consultant who's a vocal critic of the president told ABC News.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-campaign-scoops-bidens-latino-voter-web-address/story?id=66483595
Harry Enten: so this is a good poll for her (Warren)
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1187017272398942212As I always say...
the polls are what the polls are
David Axelrod: Trump campaign to smear @JoeBiden has had the OPPOSITE effect
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1186963793080918016As I always say...
the polls are what the polls are
Biden takes +2 lead in The Economist's Primary Polls tracker
After a good week of polling Joe Biden regains the lead in The Economist's Poll tracker:
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
Yep, Biden now +2 at 25% to Warren at 24%.
the polls are what the polls are
Warren avoiding answering how she plans to fund Medicare for All seems to have had a decided post debate impact.
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