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bluewater
bluewater's Journal
bluewater's Journal
October 22, 2019
Will 538 be doing their own Primary Polls tracker like The Economist's and RCP's?
Will 538 use a simple, unweighted 5 point moving average filter as RCP POLLS does?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Or will their approach be more like The Economist's?
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
Will Nate include all the C+ rated HarrisX polls in his own tracker?
Time will tell.
lol
October 22, 2019
Warren continues to lead in National Dem Primary Polls (Economist)
Warren 26%, Biden 25%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 6%
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
October 22, 2019
To be clear, this doesn’t mean Sanders and Biden are actively disliked by the party; both of them actually have high favorability ratings — 73 percent and 72 percent of Democrats had favorable opinions of Biden and Sanders, according to an average of national August polls by FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich. And if you look at Iowa surveys that also ask this question, Democrats have a fairly favorable view of both Biden and Sanders. But our question is different — we’re not asking whether respondents like a candidate; we’re asking who they don’t want to win the nomination. And while that question might capture some candidates who people dislike, it’s also entirely plausible that many Democrats like Biden and Sanders but still don’t want them to be the nominee.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-democrats-in-early-primary-states-dont-want-to-see-nominated/
538: Who Democrats In Early-Primary States Don't Want To See Nominated
...
Another candidate with a substantial number of detractors is … Biden. That’s right, even though he still sits near the top of the polls, he was the No. 1 candidate who likely Democratic voters said they did not want to see as the nominee (30 percent) in that Iowa State University/Civiqs poll. Likewise, in Masket’s August early-state activist survey, 31 percent (9 people) of those interviewed said they did not want to see Biden become the nominee. Granted, this was not anywhere close to the percentages who said they didn’t want Messam, Gabbard, or Sanders nominated, but it was still quite high given how many activists also said they were still considering Biden (34 percent, or 10 people).
It may be harder to think of Biden as a factional candidate than Sanders, given that Biden also enjoys significant support among a broad swath of demographic groups within the party, including a majority of African American voters. But he’s nonetheless facing a situation in which, if he did win, he might be a relatively controversial nominee who alienates some wings of the party or has trouble generating enthusiasm that can translate into voter turnout.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean Sanders and Biden are actively disliked by the party; both of them actually have high favorability ratings — 73 percent and 72 percent of Democrats had favorable opinions of Biden and Sanders, according to an average of national August polls by FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich. And if you look at Iowa surveys that also ask this question, Democrats have a fairly favorable view of both Biden and Sanders. But our question is different — we’re not asking whether respondents like a candidate; we’re asking who they don’t want to win the nomination. And while that question might capture some candidates who people dislike, it’s also entirely plausible that many Democrats like Biden and Sanders but still don’t want them to be the nominee.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-democrats-in-early-primary-states-dont-want-to-see-nominated/
October 22, 2019
So, Sanders has support of 11% of Black voters polled compared to 14% support among white voters.
Sanders also has support of 19% of Hispanic voters polled compared to 14% support among white voters.
huh. So much for THAT Bernie bashing myth, hmmm?
Check out these demographics for yourself at The Economist's 2020 Primary site, scroll down to see all the demographics including age and education levels:
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
Will current statistics like these stop the Bernie Bashing "his crowds are so white, he has no support among people of color" posts we see so often? I wager not.
The Myth about Sanders -- that "only" White voters support him is FALSE
Looking at the demographics breakdown provided by The Economist's analysis of 2020 Primary polls we see the following statistics for voter support:
Biden:... 20% White, 39% Black, 21% Hispanic, 17% Other Ethnicity
Sanders: 14% White, 11% Black, 19% Hispanic, 17% Other Ethnicity
Warren:. 31% White, 15% Black, 17% Hispanic, 21% Other Ethnicity
Sanders: 14% White, 11% Black, 19% Hispanic, 17% Other Ethnicity
Warren:. 31% White, 15% Black, 17% Hispanic, 21% Other Ethnicity
So, Sanders has support of 11% of Black voters polled compared to 14% support among white voters.
Sanders also has support of 19% of Hispanic voters polled compared to 14% support among white voters.
In fact Sanders' support is MORE BALANCED across ethnic demographics than Biden's or Warren's.
huh. So much for THAT Bernie bashing myth, hmmm?
Check out these demographics for yourself at The Economist's 2020 Primary site, scroll down to see all the demographics including age and education levels:
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
Will current statistics like these stop the Bernie Bashing "his crowds are so white, he has no support among people of color" posts we see so often? I wager not.
October 21, 2019
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has moved into the top tier of the Democratic primary field in national polls, joining former Vice President Joe Biden. Further, she leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and raised more than anyone except Sen. Bernie Sanders from July through September.
And yet, according to our endorsement tracker, Warren isn’t getting much support from Democratic Party elites, such as elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. In fact, she doesn’t just trail Biden in endorsement “points” by our metrics, but also Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, who are both well behind her in polling and fundraising. Warren is fifth in endorsements from Democratic state legislators (behind Biden, Booker, Harris and Sanders), according to research by Boris Shor, a political scientist at the University of Houston. And it’s not just that Warren is getting stiffed by more centrist Democrats who might disagree with her on the issues: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota endorsed Sanders last week.
This is probably the simplest and best explanation. The clear leader in endorsements is really not Biden, but “undecided.”
By this point in the 2016 Democratic primary, in contrast, a huge bloc Democratic governors, senators and representatives had chosen a candidate, Hillary Clinton. But this cycle, the overwhelming majority of congressional Democrats and Democratic governors are still on the sidelines.1 Indeed, the 2020 Democratic primary looks more like the 2016 Republican primary, when most GOP officials held their fire until deep into the race, than that year’s Democratic race.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-arent-more-democrats-endorsing-warren/
538: No one is getting many endorsements
https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1186269949792272384Sen. Elizabeth Warren has moved into the top tier of the Democratic primary field in national polls, joining former Vice President Joe Biden. Further, she leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and raised more than anyone except Sen. Bernie Sanders from July through September.
And yet, according to our endorsement tracker, Warren isn’t getting much support from Democratic Party elites, such as elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. In fact, she doesn’t just trail Biden in endorsement “points” by our metrics, but also Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, who are both well behind her in polling and fundraising. Warren is fifth in endorsements from Democratic state legislators (behind Biden, Booker, Harris and Sanders), according to research by Boris Shor, a political scientist at the University of Houston. And it’s not just that Warren is getting stiffed by more centrist Democrats who might disagree with her on the issues: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota endorsed Sanders last week.
So what gives?
No one is getting many endorsements
No one is getting many endorsements
This is probably the simplest and best explanation. The clear leader in endorsements is really not Biden, but “undecided.”
By this point in the 2016 Democratic primary, in contrast, a huge bloc Democratic governors, senators and representatives had chosen a candidate, Hillary Clinton. But this cycle, the overwhelming majority of congressional Democrats and Democratic governors are still on the sidelines.1 Indeed, the 2020 Democratic primary looks more like the 2016 Republican primary, when most GOP officials held their fire until deep into the race, than that year’s Democratic race.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-arent-more-democrats-endorsing-warren/
October 21, 2019
55% of Democratic primary voters are considering casting their ballots for Elizabeth Warren
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1186329267795353601
October 21, 2019
Wow, looking at this graph we see how much both Warren and Buttigieg moved up in Iowa as Biden and Sanders moved down.
Harry Enten on the Iowa Polling
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1186278741212880897Wow, looking at this graph we see how much both Warren and Buttigieg moved up in Iowa as Biden and Sanders moved down.
October 21, 2019
Mark Zuckerberg is offering hiring advice to Pete Buttigieg
https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1186239602002219009
October 21, 2019
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was in New York, finishing a speech to nearly 26,000 people. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) was on TV, carrying on an unexpected feud with the Democrats' last nominee for president. And Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) was getting a standing ovation from rural Democrats, an hour west of Des Moines, before sharing a story about a man she'd met in New Hampshire.
“He goes up to me, and he whispers: 'Don't say anything, but I voted for Donald Trump,' “ Klobuchar recalled. “So I go: 'Don't worry, I won't say anything.' And he goes: 'I'm not going to do it again!' “
Seventy put-upon rural Democrats laughed and burst into applause. “I don't want to overemphasize this,” Klobuchar said. “You know a lot of those Trump voters aren't going to change. But there are a segment of them, nearly 10 percent of them, who voted for Barack Obama, then voted for Donald Trump. There are a bunch of them in this state. There are a bunch of counties in this state that voted for Obama, then for Trump. We don't want to leave those counties behind.”
“If you want to peak in this race,” she said after a stop in Waterloo, “you want to peak now, instead of six months before [the caucuses].”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/10/20/the-trailer-amy-klobuchar-says-she-s-catching-on-at-exactly-the-right-time/5daa096b602ff140839145ba/
More and more moderates are seeing Amy Klobuchar as an alternative to Joe Biden, especially after the 4th debate.
Amy Klobuchar says she's catching on at exactly the right time
https://twitter.com/cathleendecker/status/1186043796473237504Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was in New York, finishing a speech to nearly 26,000 people. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) was on TV, carrying on an unexpected feud with the Democrats' last nominee for president. And Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) was getting a standing ovation from rural Democrats, an hour west of Des Moines, before sharing a story about a man she'd met in New Hampshire.
“He goes up to me, and he whispers: 'Don't say anything, but I voted for Donald Trump,' “ Klobuchar recalled. “So I go: 'Don't worry, I won't say anything.' And he goes: 'I'm not going to do it again!' “
Seventy put-upon rural Democrats laughed and burst into applause. “I don't want to overemphasize this,” Klobuchar said. “You know a lot of those Trump voters aren't going to change. But there are a segment of them, nearly 10 percent of them, who voted for Barack Obama, then voted for Donald Trump. There are a bunch of them in this state. There are a bunch of counties in this state that voted for Obama, then for Trump. We don't want to leave those counties behind.”
Klobuchar, who struggled for attention in the Democratic primary, says this week's debate helped her catch on at exactly the right time. Her town halls are crowded, with staffers running to get more chairs to pack breweries or event centers. She leads the field in local endorsements, especially state legislators, “with more to come,” she says. She kicked off her bus tour with the support of Andy McKean, a Republican state legislator who bolted his party six months ago and who pronounced Klobuchar the kind of Democrat who could unite America again.
“If you want to peak in this race,” she said after a stop in Waterloo, “you want to peak now, instead of six months before [the caucuses].”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/10/20/the-trailer-amy-klobuchar-says-she-s-catching-on-at-exactly-the-right-time/5daa096b602ff140839145ba/
More and more moderates are seeing Amy Klobuchar as an alternative to Joe Biden, especially after the 4th debate.
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