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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 03:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,169

Journal Archives

Stricter Qualifications for the Next Debate!

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1223325716659482625

So no donor criteria? That means Bloomberg could make the stage.

All the aggregate polling models show him rising towards that 10% threshold.







Buttigieg is fortunate that getting a minimum of 1 delegate in IA or NH also qualifies candidates for that debate, a number he will easily pass.

Hmmm. Perhaps Bloomberg, Yang and Klobuchar might also sneak in by getting 1 delegate.

"Mayor Pete fell far short of pledge to help Minority Contractors"

https://twitter.com/Olivianuzzi/status/1223300285264732160

As they say, actions speak louder than words.

Biden burns Mayor Pete: "I've gotten more than 8,600 votes in my life."

I think Biden was talking about votes in a winning election here.



https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/1223023328132239361

Understanding Uncertainty ( In Polls and Elections)

Understanding Uncertainty

Two professors work to better visualize probability for the next election.


Across the political spectrum, surprise was a common reaction to the 2016 presidential election. For most people, the predictions leading up to Nov. 8 made it seem as if Hillary Clinton was all but certain to become the first female president. Depending on your perspective, waking up on Nov. 9 felt like an icy splash of water or a thrilling upset.

And some of that surprise, say Northwestern professors Jessica Hullman and Steve Franconeri, can be credited to the predictive charts and graphs used in 2016. Hullman, who holds appointments in both the McCormick School of Engineering and the Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated Marketing Communications, studies how data visualizations can help people understand uncertainty. Franconeri, a psychology professor in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences and director of the Northwestern Cognitive Science Program, studies how people process visual information.

These two researchers say incomplete or oversimplified visuals, paired with our human tendency to see what we want to see, contributed to the difficulty many people had in fully grasping the range of possible election outcomes.

Here, journalism, computer science and psychology collide as Hullman and Franconeri break down some of what went wrong in 2016 visualizations, and how data journalists can show probabilities more effectively in 2020 — and beyond — to better prepare voters.


https://magazine.northwestern.edu/exclusives/understanding-uncertainty/?linkId=81365723

Well worth looking at the linked article for the analysis and graphics.


Bloomberg catches Mayor Pete at RCP Polls!

According to RCP Polls, Bloomberg and Mayor Pete are now tied at 7.7% polling average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

It's the battle of the Mayors!

New York City experience versus South Bend experience.

Self-financed Billionaire campaign versus Wine Cave Donors.

How exciting!

538: Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Warren did best

Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Warren did best

How debate-watchers scored candidates’ performances (on a four-point scale where higher is better) in the January Democratic debate, by which type of candidate they prefer



VOTER PREFERS A CANDIDATE WHO …
CANDIDATE SHARES STANCE ON ISSUES CAN BEAT TRUMP

Warren 3.0 3.4
Biden 2.6 3.1
Buttigieg 2.7 3.1
Sanders 3.1 3.1
Klobuchar 2.6 3.0
Steyer 2.7 3.0


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-january-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/

WOW!

538 Debate Poll: Warren had the BEST performance

Warren had the best debate performance

?

Warren got high marks

First up, who viewers thought had the best debate performance. To answer this, we compared candidates’ pre-debate favorability ratings1 to how well respondents who watched the debate thought the candidates performed. Candidates are graded on a four-point scale where higher numbers are better; comparing those grades to favorability ratings helps us adjust our expectations, since people may be inclined to view well-liked candidates in a positive light. Warren got the highest marks for her performance on Tuesday night, and they were strong enough to be impressive even after you account for her high favorability. That represents an improvement for her, after she fell slightly below expectations during the December debate. Sanders, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Biden didn’t do poorly per se, but because they were already well-liked, we expected a lot of voters to view their debate performance favorably.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-january-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/

Warren was very impressive last night and 538's poll shows that!

Nice!

Warren is back!

Facebook Says It Won't Back Down From Allowing Lies in Political Ads

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1216092526173659147

Defying pressure from Congress, Facebook said on Thursday that it would continue to allow political campaigns to use the site to target advertisements to particular slices of the electorate and that it would not police the truthfulness of the messages sent out.

The stance put Facebook, the most important digital platform for political ads, at odds with some of the other large tech companies, which have begun to put new limits on political ads.

Facebook’s decision, telegraphed in recent months by executives, is likely to harden criticism of the company heading into this year’s presidential election.


Sigh.

The generational gap among black Democrats is very revealing

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1216018625842360320

Interesting.

So...

Sanders + Warren have 48% of Black Democrats age 18 to 34 to Biden's 30%

Sanders + Warren have 31% of Black Democrats age 35 to 49 to Biden's 41%



That leaves open the possibility the age 50-64 bracket might be persuadable away from Biden by younger family members.

Time will tell if early voting results from Iowa and New Hampshire have an effect on this dynamic.

2020 ad spending

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1215713394831110149

Hmm.

Steyer might just be showing that money can by you love... from primary voters.





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