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Gender: Male
Hometown: Tucson, Arizona
Current location: Chicago, Illinois
Member since: Wed Dec 25, 2019, 12:02 AM
Number of posts: 2,058

Journal Archives

Check this poll from Susquehanna on 538

An early October poll shows Harris with a 15 point margin over Trump Sr. in a head to head presidential matchup. I can't click the screen to hold the page, but if you look here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ you'll find it today.

For real, a 15 point margin for Harris over Trump in a conservative poll. Interesting.

Democrats better be on guard for widespread cheating by Republicans in the midterm election


Hurricane Ian may have done the January 6th committee a huge favor, moving its final public hearing to October 13. That put it a couple of weeks closer to the midterm elections, where the powerful impact of the information that was revealed will have maximum effect as it settles in, for those who have an open mind and a grip on reality. We've managed to get past a real attempt to overthrow the government by the most corrupt presidential administration in the history of the nation. That's good, but it's not over.

The depth and the extent to which these people were willing to go, to set up what is essentially a copy of the Russian oligarchy, and making themselves oligarchs with our money and resources, is beyond frightening. It ranks right up there with the twentieth century takeovers of Germany, Italy and Russia by totalitarian dictatorships. I've read commentary that equates their methodology and even quotes some of the Trump conspirators who cited the European dictators and expressed admiration for them.

Watching that hearing, and then the coverage of it afterward, it should be crystal clear to anyone who sees this for what it is that there are already plenty of people at work to try and subvert the results of the mid-term election. Trump isn't just enjoying his mic time at rallies. All of this whole gang of thugs, even those under indictment like Steve Bannon, are actively engaged in activity that is aimed at stealing the midterm election.

Here's everything that's on the Republican side of the midterm ballot, and it's pretty ugly


OK, we all know this. But as much as possible, putting it in written form and putting it out there is worth it, if it convinces one more voter to go vote against everything Republican and Trumpie.

There's not ever been a time that I can remember, since I cast my first ballot in a Presidential election in 1976, for Jimmy Carter, that so many other people and issues were on the ballot with the candidates of one of the political parties. Nor has it ever seemed that so many people were either so clueless, or so separated from reality in a world of conspiracy theories, fear and paranoia. So when voters go into the booth, or step up to the screen and cast a ballot, there will be many things lying underneath the candidate's names on the Republican side.

Election denying, which is one of the issues associated with the Trumpies, is a serious charge. In making this reckless claim, because his ego can't take defeat, he is baselessly accusing a large number of patriotic Americans of both political parties, who work hard to ensure the absolute integrity of every election from the local level to the national level, of cheating him out of a victory he clearly did not achieve. That is a serious accusation against the integrity of this country, and against the patriotism and loyalty of millions of Americans. It is also one of the most blatantly ignorant statements ever to come from a former President of the United States. It is a hard and realistic demonstration of the fact that this man is not a patriotic, loyal American, but a selfish psychopath with a fragile ego and demented intelligence.

What's trending, less than a month before the midterms?


For reference, in the link above, there are three polls from YouGov/The Economist which are worthy of note. All three were taken from October 8-11, so they are the most recent. They have a B rating, which isn't great, but which is equal to the other two polls on the same subject from Rasmussen and Ipsos, which put factors in place that make the data skew to the right. The poll of 1,030 "likely voters" has President Biden's job approval rating at 48%, a 5 point jump from the last similar poll, and disapproval at 51%. The poll of 1,330 registered voters has approval at 48% and disapproval at 49%, and the poll of 1,500 adults has approval at 45% and disapproval at 46%.

That's a 10% to as much as 12% swing from similar polls in mid-September, what some pollsters call "trending." I'm not a pollster, but I'd call it that. I'm not sure of the factoring they do on job approval ratings, but that much of a shift should generate some interest in finding out what it is that has caused this. The President made a major campaign speech in Philadelphia, which blasted the GOP for its extremism and which silenced a lot of the whispering and speculation about his mental sharpness. He's actually been out a lot more, because candidates seem to want him to appear with them on stage. It's pretty obvious, at least to those who aren't politically biased toward the right, that he's actively engaged in trying all of the steps economists say are necessary to curb inflation. Combined with the shock of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the revelations that Trump took top secret documents to Mar-a-Lago and there are some reasons to support the trend.

You Gov/Economist polls from Oct 11 show a one point difference in Biden job approval

I would like to see NBC cite those three polls from October 11. Two polls are at one point, the largest sample at 45-46, the next largest at 48-49 and the widest gap, 1,030 registered voters at 48-51. Down the list, on 538, is Trump, with double digit gaps in negative numbers.

And the generic ballot is trending toward Democrats.

I'll just wait until election day. There will be a lot of shrieking and lip flapping over a Democratic majority getting elected.

Poll and pundit watching: Michael Moore predicts the Democrats will win the midterms.


Don't get me wrong, I still do. But there's an element of unpredictability in polls, and it's been there since at least 2012, when President Obama won a solid, convincing re-election bid over Mitt Romney. Republicans were sincerely expecting that Romney would eke out a narrow electoral college win, based on polling data from Ohio and Florida that gave him a slight edge. But he didn't carry either state, in fact, he lost Ohio outside the margin of error of the poll, though Florida was much closer, Obama still carried the state. As it turned out, with Ohio, he didn't need it.

Democrats have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about their chances of keeping control of Congress, and expanding their control of the Senate. When I first started looking at the composites back in February or March, we were down by nine points in the generic ballot, and Pennsylvania was the only really bright spot in the senate races. But looking at the 538 polling composites today, Democrats lead the generic ballot, it's close, one point, but that's a ten point improvement since the low point last winter. The numbers in the senate races, if the election were held tomorrow, would yield a gain of three for the Democrats, with Nevada being the closest thing Republicans have to a possible flip, and I wouldn't bet on that. Beasley and Demings, in North Carolina and Florida, have moved the needle to well within the margins in their races within the past two weeks, and if they can pull it off, that's a net gain of five for the Democrats.

Running for office as an election denier nullifies the election denier argument.


You just can't fix stupid.

Believing that the 2020 Presidential election was "stolen," especially without any evidence at all to support that claim, is about as ignorant and ridiculous a position as a politician can take. In my own opinion, believing that should disqualify anyone from running for public office. There are always glitches and places in the system where ballots can't be verified, or may have been cast in a manner not consistent with law or defined procedure, but the number is so low, compared to the number of ballots that are cast and counted accurately, that it is safe to say American elections are the most secure and accurate in the world. And 2020 falls into that same category, in spite of the ignorant rhetoric that keeps going on and on from the right.

But, making that kind of fraudulent claim goes beyond identifying those who believe it as idiots and morons. Trump wasn't the only name on those ballots. Every state had a list of senate candidates, congressional candidates, state legislative elections, judges, constitutional propositions, and all kinds of things to elect or which required casting a vote. If the Presidential election was "rigged," then so was every other election on the ballot. That means that many of those who are currently serving in Congress on the GOP side of the aisle believe their own election isn't legitimate. Right? I mean, if someone was elected and the election was rigged, then so would be their election.

Democrats need to get the working class in places like West Virginia back


West Virginia's congressional delegation, made up of individuals who are tightly connected to corporate interests, including the energy business, has no interest in helping the working poor in their state. None. Yet they keep getting elected, mainly on social issues and on the political rhetoric of right wing liars.

Job loss for rural communities in West Virginia is a regular occurrence. Coal mines run out of coal and shut down, and now, as cheaper, cleaner alternatives are being developed, even productive facilities are being shut down for lack of markets. Democrats have proposed some solutions which will create jobs in other fields, bringing in and growing different industries which would add jobs and improve the local economy. The infrastructure bill and "Build Back Better" both carried immense potential to create jobs in the state. But its politicians followed a party line and voted no.

Senator Bernie Sanders, who won the Democratic primary in West Virginia in 2016, went back with MSNBC's Chris Hayes for a town hall in Welch, in the far southern part of the state, deep in the mountains, to address the opioid crisis, prescription drug addiction and the health care issues plaguing the rural areas. It was a rare opportunity for West Virginians to be heard, and they were, by Democrats. Once Trump was gone, what the Biden administration offered to West Virginia was a hand up, and they've benefitted tremendously from the infrastructure bill. Williamson and Mingo County are not the only place that will have an operational hospital due to Biden administration assistance. Welch, where Sanders and Hayes held their town hall, also got assistance to keep their medical facility open, as did several other rural health operations across the state

Is this what we should expect from Trump rallies and January 6th insurrection defenders?


Warnock opens a twelve point lead...

...that was bound to happen.

Oh that this will happen to all of the Magats everywhere.

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