speak easy
speak easy's JournalA pic from ItsjustMe's excellent ImageDump that deserves its own post!
ItsjustMe Image Dump 3/1/24
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218733447
Trump was never 'hinged'.
I know, it is just a figure of speech, but when I read Trump was (recently) 'unhinged' it makes me angry. Like a lot of angry. I mean, are we going to tear up the Constitution because Fred Trump never loved his kid?
How good/bad was Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor of CA?
I have never lived in California. I ask because these days he comes across as a pretty regular guy.
North Korea 5:1 Audio
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un speaks at the 5th National Meeting of Mothers in Pyongyang in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency on December 5, 2023.
Can President Biden afford to lose 370K votes in MI compared with 2020?
No, of course not.
370K is a only worse case projection from the primary. Assuming -
1. All the uncommitted group would stay at home in the GE.
2. The primary results are representative of the wider group that voted Biden in 2020
Would 13.2% stay at home? = 2.8M (Biden vote in 2020) * 0.132 = 370 K
Are 1. & 2. realistic? No, of course not. But you can bet that the Biden/Harris re-election team will be looking at bad case scenarios, as well the Happy Talk explanations that I've read here.
MI: 100,960 (13.3%) uncommitted at 95+% counted
Biden 617,728 (81.1%)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/27/us/elections/results-michigan-democratic-presidential-primary.html
Charles Koch kisses The Ring
Koch network ends financial support for Nikki Haley’s presidential bidThe organization — the Koch network’s flagship political group that set out last year to put its weight behind a Donald Trump opponent in 2024 — announced the change one day after the South Carolina GOP primary saw Trump defeat Haley in her home state.
“Nikki Haley has shown us again and again that we made the right decision in supporting her candidacy and she continues to have our strong endorsement,” Seidel wrote. “But given the challenges in the primary states ahead, we don’t believe any outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/02/25/americans-for-prosperity-haley-campaign/
2024: Trump cannot be compared to an Incumbent President
I have read on a number of occasions that Trump with 60% of the primary votes, is underperforming, because he is the 'Incumbent'. I disagree.
Apart from the political advantages of the office, a President has a historical advantage over a challenger that Trump does not because -
1. Even a very strong, insurgent challenger will be almost certainly lose ;
2. The prestige and performance of the President will suffer in office ; and
3. If the challenger conducts a particularly effective campaign, the President will lose the General Election.
This was true of Taft (1912), Ford (1976), Carter (1980), and, while not an incumbent, Humphrey (1968). In short, a substantial challenge to a sitting President is suicidal politics. Voters in the Primaries have good reason not to get onboard.
1. May be true for Trump, 2. and 3 are not. Republican primary voters do not see the challenger's campaigns as fatal to Trump's chances in the General Election. They can more freely lodge a protest vote.
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