Putin's Worsening Problems

Several analysts think Russia's problems in Ukraine are substantial:




Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine is now entering its third week and the much-anticipated fall of Kyiv, estimated by various Western officials last month to be likely within the space of about 72 hours, has not yet occurred. Nor has Russia managed to sack any major population center. The one city it “holds,” the provincial capital of Kherson, is restive: Ukrainians turn out daily to protest their armed occupiers, and now fresh reports are trickling in of mass arrests of civilians and anyone thought to have been associated with Ukrainian authorities.

One country in Europe has been bolder in making projections that this war will not end in Putin’s favor: Estonia, for which Russia has historically been the overriding national security and military preoccupation at all levels of government. On Feb. 28, Mikk Marran, the head of Välisluureamet, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, told New Lines that he didn’t believe Putin could “keep up an intensive war for more than two months” and that ultimately “Russia will not win this war.”

A senior Estonian analyst with years of experience tracking Russia’s military affairs concurs with that assessment but doesn’t even think it’ll take another two months to bear fruit — it already is doing so.

As this source asked to remain anonymous, we will refer to him as “Karl.”

“If Russia does not achieve a remarkable advance by the end of this week, it is difficult to see how [the advance] should come at all,” Karl said late this week.

https://newlinesmag.com/argument/putins-worsening-problems/

Russians triumph over convenience food store!

How many Russian police does it take to arrest a protestor?

Interesting analysis on Ukraine by a Chinese expert:

Basically Putin is history and China needs to get on the winning side.

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

The magazine where this was published is a part of the Carter Center. I think they know what and who they are publishing.



Just saw this:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1503007981641871362

Video from occupied Kherson, Ukraine

Putin is truly desperate!

No long table or other Covid precautions when he met yesterday with the fat guy from Belarus to beg him to join the war. He didn't get a commitment though.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1502671401895010313

Another not pessimistic view of the Ukraine war.

This guy gets cited a lot by the twitter mavens. If I am reading him right he is saying Russia's available forces are failing. Putin is desperate and is recruiting mercenary war criminals because he doesn't have the Russian forces to win. May resort to WMD
Long thread:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502528320369569792

Frances Fukuyama: Really optimistic view of Ukraine War!

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

You know, he might be right. I've tried to figure out how big the Russian Army is and have seen all sorts of numbers. But a lot of conscripts without much training. The elite troops have been committed and apparently badly damaged. If Putin is looking to Syria for 15000 that means he doesn't have Russian professionals left. He has been stalled outside Kyiv for awhile now. A lot of professionals think he doesn't have the numbers to surround Kyiv. He can fire his artillery but if Kyiv can be resupplied from the south Kyiv can hold out for a very long time.
If he sends his tanks in Ukraine has the weapons and hopefully ammo to defeat them as they crawal through the streets. With long vulnerable supply lines to the north the tables may indeed turn.

Kyiv Zoo

Conditions are difficult at the Kyiv Zoo. Families have move into the zoo to take care of the animals but food is a major problem for the large animals. Russian shelling has come close. I'll put up a few tweets in the next minutes.

https://twitter.com/stae_elephants/status/1502223150339162113

https://twitter.com/Lucycrew7/status/1502086877456781320

https://twitter.com/Mastino1111/status/1500977142045286410

Some have been rescued:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/kyiv-zoo-ukraine-russia-animal-rescue-b2028186.html

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1502744488107675648

Kyiv daily war dog

Tim Make is an NPR reporter in Kyiv. Hecovers what it's like to be living in the city and every day tweets a picture of a dog he meets. This is today's:


https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1502659933996609538