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Profile Information

Name: Tom Conroy
Gender: Male
Hometown: CT
Home country: USA
Current location: Langley, Virginia
Member since: Sat Mar 6, 2021, 08:56 PM
Number of posts: 7,104

About Me

Member of NAFO. Living large on an enormous CIA paycheck.

Journal Archives

The latest from Ukraine: Operational silence rules.

The following is from the map guy for the Institute for War:
"Ukrainian forces have made newly-confirmed tactical gains in the past 24 hours. They are now geolocated to be within 2.5 km of the great anti-vehicle ditch - the next major military engineering obstacle within the Russian layered defense

We've recessed the Russian control line to the fighting positions behind the dragons teeth. Commercially available satellite imagery indicates that most Russian forces and heavy equipment are deployed south of the dragon's teeth.
The land between the ditch and the dragon's teeth is likely heavily mined."

Check out this thread at Thread Reader App. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695470501932552534.html

The problem with the ISW maps is that they are usually based on days old geolocated video and may not reflect recent activity.
I don't really know a lot about what's going on. I'm relatively certain Ukraine is on the advance to the southwest of Robotyne trying to take some elevated ground. There is probably fighting in the village directly south of Robotyne. There are also advances on the axis to the west.
Russia has been moving undermanned battalions to the Robotyne front. Ukraine probably will transfer troops from Bahkmut to the southern axis soon.

Rumors tonight about the offensive in Ukraine

This is all over the social media site formerly known as twitter:


Makes some sense after a big hit on Russian HQ in Tokmak today.
Watch this space!

The latest from Ukraine: 15 km to Tokmak!

Ukraine occupied most of the village of Robotyne last week. The Russians conducted a fierce counterattack this weekend penetrating to the center of the village. Ukraine defeated completely the counterattack.
Today the Ukraine MOD announced it's forces are 6km south of Robotyne, 1/3 of the way to the strategic city of Tokmak!

Il'chenkove is the small village depicted where the blue arrow is to the south of Robotyne on the map. If the Russians are shelling it, this means Ukraine forces have taken up positions there. Ukraine is starting to roll.


Ukraine: Thank You, Sweden!

On Ukraine Independence Day the Ukraine Ministry of Defense is releasing short videos thanking countries that have come to her aid. This is the one for Sweden:


The British Ministry of Defense honors Ukraine Independence Day!



Ukraine destroyed a Russian S 400 missile system in Crimea today.

The system, while normally used as a surface to air missile defense system, has also been used in the russian terror bombing campaign.


Ukraine has concentrated it's forces for the big push to Tokmak.

Particularly good commentary in the Daily Kos this afternoon:

"Sometime around July 26, Ukraine committed the 118th Mechanized Brigade to this direction. Some Pentagon officials suggested that Ukrainian had committed its main force and its “big push” had begun. Instead, it became clear within days that Ukraine had only committed a single additional mechanized brigade (the aforementioned 118th Mechanized), and some backtracking ensued.

Interestingly, events in the subsequent three weeks suggest this assessment was likely not in error but merely premature. The 118th Mechanized was the first of four additional armored brigades Ukraine has now committed to this axis of advance, more than doubling Ukraine’s commitment from three brigades to seven.

Among those newly committed brigades, Ukraine has thrown the elite 82nd Air Assault Brigade to this battle, which is equipped with some of the best Western NATO equipment including Challenger 2 tanks, Marder IFVs, and Stryker IFVs. The 116th Mechanized and the 46th Airmobile Brigades have also been geolocated to this area in the past week.

What emerges is a picture of a massive and concentrated accumulation of force."

Worth the read:


Mark Meadows has filed a 19 page motion to keep from getting arrested in Geogia


He's trying to delay it to see if he can transfer his case to federal court.

NY Times: Ukranian Commanders are Buoyed to be on the Offensive

In 18 months of war, Ukrainian land has mostly changed hands in sudden bursts, with Russia snatching a mass of territory at the start and Ukraine recapturing chunks in dramatic counterattacks. Now 10 weeks into its most ambitious counteroffensive, with heavy casualties and equipment losses, questions have been growing about whether Ukraine can punch through Russian lines.

Despite grueling fighting, Ukrainian forces along much of the 600-mile front are moving forward, and commanders and veteran soldiers say they are in better shape now than six or 12 months ago.

“If a year ago we were conducting defensive operations and we had the task of holding back the enemy, now we have the ability to attack,” Col. Dmytro Lysiuk, commander of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, said in an interview in his frontline bunker last week.

Ukrainian officers are almost invariably upbeat in interviews. Even if the counteroffensive has yielded only mixed results so far, with Ukrainian troops slowed by dense Russian minefields and sustained firepower, they describe previous periods as being tougher than this one.

No paywall:

On the Front Line, Ukrainian Commanders Are Buoyed to Be on the Offensive https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/20/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-commanders-fighters.html?unlocked_article_code=Z8Psc3ZZ7j5emUsOvmxH120dhw5HL9d4eM2kRkeRwJSri2NjHN9GhdU7KHOAjGQLeBf_eWk_NQArHHpa9vr8wyR1fO1m2zJojVgIQzeqOAiY0fSoBWpzejKWQJOk5NFopRxCXzngOkuyHROUh1u4UugSLTZthvqjUJVit8mqguO4Fe6wrB9Kj5qztI6NJA16oPSV7p6CzYALXimsRlpKBG8Eh4Rka0R3VAQ6PQaW8DnbUywuXuzgYABAof1kZFbxQWk9NROPra5Cfbu5F4tAc5ZaoZKhbhXiGfcOPvDh-jB64Xk2N2V74aI9bOmpuxUVvFOW-XDtuPJQEMpDsnwDpicILkKGsHRaR7kkbZR4OIZES3EOJl0VJ9301Q&smid=nytcore-android-share

CBS News is reporting that Ukraine forces have broken through and are approaching Tokmak


I believe the village of Robotyne is now taken and Ukraine has advanced farther than has generally been understood. The situation should clarify in the coming week but Ukraine may be past the major mine field of the russians.


No mines (south of Urezhayne):



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