Pototan
Pototan's JournalA closer look at the Iowa poll
Look, I'm as giddy as the next Democrat at the possibility of Kamala Harris carrying Iowa, but this poll signifies more than that.
This poll is an A++ gold standard poll. But, of course, it's not infallible. This pollster's worst polling miss in an Iowa statewide race was 5 points in a Governor's race. Her poll that year was D+2, the final result was R+3. Every other poll has been either right on, or off just a point or 2 either way. But her Presidential polls of Iowa have been used by pundits as a harbinger of the final result nationally, especially the mid-west and more specifically, the "Blue Wall" states.
In the last 2 cycles she had Iowa Trump +7. In each case, Trump outperformed the conventional polls significantly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Once narrowly winning and once narrowly losing. and that 7-point margin was nearly exactly correct in Iowa.
So, let's say this pollster misses in Iowa by the largest amount in any statewide poll by her in 15 years, that R+5 in the Governor's race. That puts this poll at Trump +2. That would give Trump Iowa but would signify a comfortable win in all 3 mid-west battleground states for Kamala Harris. More importantly, inside the numbers, she has a +28-point Harris lead among Independent women in the nearly all white Iowa electorate.
I find a great deal of positive energy in this Iowa poll.
Can the analysis be this simple?
Put aside all the other demographics, if Kamala Harris carries women in the 3 blue wall states by a larger net margin than Adolf Drumpf carries men, then the election is over. Women will vote at least 4 or 5 points heavier than men.
And I think that that scenario is almost a certainty.
Inside Penn. registration numbers
I've been hearing all year about how the Republicans are outpacing Democrats in new registrations. As it turns out, the Democrats have tens of thousands of new voters more than Republicans, but that has been offset by Democratic switches to Republicans.
To me, that means current registered Democrats who don't vote for us have changed their registrations, and new voters, who can choose which party they want to belong to, have chosen us. That a substantial net gain in actual votes for us.
https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-10-12/latest-pa-voter-registration-numbers-show-what-could-happen-in-november?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwm5e5BhCWARIsANwm06j5kfZikcFvF4G3AUZiiNqH-_0VARukJjz7t_ekfLu9e6l_t8LJgw0aAuvIEALw_wcB
So far this year, of the more than 100,000 people who registered for the first time online, just over 30,000 more joined the state’s voting ranks as Democrats compared to Republicans. But compared to Democrats, 32,000 more existing voters switched parties to the GOP.
WTF is Trump doing in this clip?
Drudge says that Trump is simulating oral sex on stage. You be the judge.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086
Brand New Marist Poll: Harris leads in all 3 "Blue Wall" sates
The Marist Poll released Friday showed Harris leading former President Trump by 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The results are a slight improvement for Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and slight decline for her in Michigan, compared to Marist’s poll in September, but she maintained her advantage across the board.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964711-harris-leads-trump-marist-poll/
Women dominate Early Voting Worrying Republicans
This Newsweek article echos an earlier post by me this morning. I think two things may be in play. First, women are motivated to get to the polls, and we know that Kamala Harris has a sizable margin with the female voter. Second, the ground game may be working for the Democrats, and the Republican ground game may be ineffective. It certainly does not appear that low propensity male voters are coming out to vote early or cast an absentee ballot. If that's the case, good luck trying to get low propensity voting men to stand in line for two hours or more on election day.
Link:
https://www.newsweek.com/women-dominate-early-voting-trump-supporters-nervous-1977757
Women are outpacing men in casting ballots nationally and in all seven battleground states, according to NBC News' tracker of early ballot returns. Of the more than 58 million mail-in and early in-person votes that have been cast nationally, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.
In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of the early vote, and men for about 43 percent
Is my math correct?
If women are outvoting men in Pennsylvania by 13% (56% to 43%), as indicated in the early voting data. And if the net gender gap is close to even in the final analysis of all voters in Penn (Harris plus 8 or 9 points among women, Trump plus 8 or 9 points among men), and if, as the early voting data suggests, woman outvote men by at least 6 or 7 points of all voters (i.e. 53% to 46%), doesn't that mean Pennsylvania will be safely in the Harris column?
And if we win Pennsylvania, doesn't that increase our chances to about 90% of winning the election?
Is my math correct?
Poltical Cartoon in today's Manila Times
I have resided in the Central Philippines since my retirement 3 years ago. I have a subscription to the Manila Times online. I thought you may like today's editorial cartoon.
https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/10/28/opinion/editorial-cartoon/storm-ahead/1992123
Dartmouth College Poll: Blue Outlier--Harris by 21 in NH
We've read enough Red outliers and "flood the zone" polls from the Trump side. I figured this one may warm your heart.
As a first ever poll from Dartmouth, I maybe would have held the results and redid it. However, if they are correct, they certainly will have made their mark.
As the first-ever Dartmouth Poll, the survey also shows that in one of most competitive gubernatorial races nationally, Democrat Joyce Craig leads Republican Kelly Ayotte in their bid to succeed Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.
The poll of 2,211 registered voters between Oct. 5 and 18 also shows Democrats ahead in the race for New Hampshire's two seats in the U.S. House.
When asked who they would support for president if the election were held in mid-October, 58.5% of Granite State voters say they would vote for Harris, 37.7% report that they would vote for Trump, and 3.7% report that they would vote support another candidate.
https://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/about-center/dartmouth-poll/media-and-results
Harris Regains 4 Point Lead in ABC News Poll
Turnout is key. Just 2 percentage points divide Harris and Donald Trump among all registered voters, 49-47%. This goes to a slight Harris advantage among likely voters, 51-47%, with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote.
Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men and runs competitively among younger men.
Eight percent of adults (and 10% of registered voters) say they've already voted (as of early last week); a disproportionately Democratic group, they went 62-33% for Harris.
This poll finds a notable shift in vote preferences among Hispanic people, 12% of likely voters and a potentially important group given the close contest, especially in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada. Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020, per the ABC News exit poll, and Harris leads in this group by a similar 30 points now, 64-34% -- compared with 55-43% in early October.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=115083875
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Name: LouisGender: Male
Hometown: Boston USA and Pototan Philippines
Home country: United States
Current location: Philippines
Member since: Tue Dec 20, 2022, 10:03 AM
Number of posts: 2,704