September 25, 2024

Bulfinch Group: Georgia, NC, Fla (good numbers)

This Southeastern state polling of Georgia: Harris plus 2, North Carolina: Harris plus 1 and Florida: Trump plus 1, is very encouraging, if accurate. I write in this caveat because the polling from different sources is showing different trends. CNN has Harris up just 1 point nationally. Ipsos has her up 6 points nationally. Even the swing states have different results from pretty reputable polling sources. I think we just don't know and won't know until they count the votes. In the meantime, I'm sitting here in the Philippines, a retired American citizen (I contributed $500 to Harris) biting my nails up to my elbow.


https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66f2fc6cef3551afcccb8041_Independent%20Center%20Sep%202024%20SE%20Swing%20Survey%20Toplines.pdf

September 25, 2024

New Reuters-Ipsos National Poll: Harris Plus 6 (LV)

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 40% in the race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, as she appeared to blunt Trump's edge on the economy and jobs, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday found.

Harris had a lead of six percentage points based on unrounded figures - which showed her with support from 46.61% of registered voters while Trump was backed by 40.48%, according to the three-day poll that closed on Monday. The Democrat's lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll.


https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

September 23, 2024

Kamala Harris represents change

It's the change of moving on from nearly a decade of anger, lies, hatred, insults and bigotry that came down that escalator with Donald Trump. The change is finally putting Trump in the rearview mirror and marginalizing his cult.

That's the change we need.

September 22, 2024

Trump didn't only endorse Mark Robinson

He handpicked him. By endorsing, praising and urging his supporters to support and vote for Robinson in the Gubernatorial Primary, Trump put his thumb on the scale and his cult followed. This shows all Americans Trump's continued lack of judgement.

I wish the media would stop using the description of endorsed in this story. The phrase should be, "Mark Robinson, Trump's handpicked candidate for Governor of North Carolina."

September 22, 2024

What door knocking really accomplishes

Canvassing for a candidate takes a very devoted volunteer. I've done it for 50 years until I retired. The purpose is more to locate votes than to convince. Each canvasser is given a sheet with registered voters and his or her job is to gauge the level of support from each encounter. Most systems use a 1 to 5 method. 1 being a sure vote and 5 you're never going to get. 3 is undecided.

These lists go back to a phone bank to reinforce and confirm the number 1's and 2's and maybe mail out to the 3's to convince.

The ones and twos are the GOTV. They get contacted for early voting. The HQ offers rides or baby-sitting, especially for early voting. If the campaign is not door knocking to establish who or where their voters are, the GOTV doesn't work. Phone banking is another way to establish the ranking, by concentrating on a certain voter, like registered Democrats only. I did a lot of union-to-union phone banking in that demographic.

Harris' campaign is doing this on the ground in the key states. They have more volunteers than any campaign has had in decades. It rivals Obama's 2008 effort.

The Republicans have dismantled their GOTV and have outsourced it. I know from experience, outsourcing doesn't work. The canvassers are just there for the money. Their hearts aren't into it and the upper group leaders are grifting. As a result, Trump's ground game is far behind and in disarray.

I think that the polling data looks good for Kamala. If we're up 1 or 2 points in swing states like Pennsylvania, I think the ground game will add another point or two. I expect this year that the Democrats will overperform the polls, up and down the ballot.

September 22, 2024

Harris leads by 4 in CBS Poll; By 2 in Swing States

POLITICS

Harris shows some gains and economic views brighten a bit — CBS News poll
By Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Kabir Khanna

September 22, 2024 / 9:01 AM EDT / CBS News

The 2024 presidential race clearly remains a contest either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris can win, CBS News' latest polling finds.

But with interest rates and gas prices coming down, the number of voters saying the economy is good has ticked up. That, along with a debate voters say was net positive for her, has helped Harris a bit.

The vice president has now moved to the slightest of edges across the battleground states (it was 50-50 last month), and she is now up 4 points nationally over Donald Trump.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-poll-debate-economy-09-22-2024/

September 22, 2024

NBC National Poll: Harris Plus 5

A double-digit increase in popularity, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early edge for representing “change” have vaulted Vice President Kamala Harris forward and reshuffled the 2024 presidential contest, according to a new national NBC News poll.

With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-newly-popular-harris-challenging-trump-change-rcna171308

September 19, 2024

Apprentice: Trump calls Diddy "a friend" and a "good guy"

September 18, 2024

The reason I feel good about this election

And please don't GOTV me. I already know that as well as everyone else on this site.

I want to describe our strength in the 7 swing states.

We have the advantage in the three top statewide offices (2 Senators and Governor) in 6 of the 7 swing states. The Democrats hold all 3 in 3 states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. We hold 2 of 3 in Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin. The Republicans hold 2 of 3 in just North Carolina.

In addition, the Democrat holds a comfortable polling lead in every state that has a statewide contest this year. North Carolina (Gov.), Michigan (Sen.), Wisconsin (Sen.)., Pennsylvania (Sen.), Arizona (Sen.), Neveda (Sen.).

September 18, 2024

Trump confuses Afghan airbase with Alaska wilflife refuge

Former President Donald Trump mixed up the name of an Alaskan wildlife refuge and an air base in Afghanistan during a town hall in Flint, Michigan on Tuesday.

Boasting to the audience about how he got oil drilling approved in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, commonly referred to ANWR, Trump said

“Looking forward to the dozen NYT stories about Trump’s age and mental acuity. Oh wait. That’s just reserved for Democrats,” reacted former Hillary Clinton senior adviser Zac Petkanas.

“Bagram was the airbase he had in Afghanistan- the same base where we kept hundreds of Taliban and ISIS prisoners that Trump released back out into Afghanistan in his final year in office,” tweeted Democratic polit Amy McGrath. “He is CLUELESS folks.”


https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump-mistakes-wildlife-refuge-for-airbase-in-afghanistan-we-have-bagram-in-alaska/