Trump's and Republicans Fiscal Dilema

I believe the reason Trump wants to impose Tariffs at such a huge rate is to offset his tax package. In order to pass this package by a simple majority in the Senate, he needs offsets. No tax on tips, no tax on Social Security and no tax on overtime will pass easily in the House because those measures will have heavy Democratic support. Add to that the probable re-instatement of the SALT deduction from blue state Republicans (like Lawler) and the probable increase in loopholes for the wealthy that every Republican will vote for, and you can see his problem. Trump and the Republicans need an offset, and Tariffs will be needed to fill that hole to gain approval from the Congressional Budget Office that the tax bill is "revenue neutral".

Good luck pulling this off without a catastrophic result to the American economy.

Trump nominates Kash Patel to head FBI

Part of my daily routine

First off, the time difference in the Philippines is currently 13 hours. As an example, 11:00 AM Tuesday here is 10:00 PM Monday, EST in Boston and New York. It reverts to 12 hours when the clocks turn to EDT.

So, around 11:00 AM, after coffee and pastry, I sit for about an hour in the sun, by the pool. I sometimes play music, but often just enjoy the sounds of the farm. I'm in and out of the pool as I feel the urge. However, it is during this time that I think of my posting on DU. I sit in the tranquil atmosphere and think of a post I may have read in the morning and want to reply to or a new one I want to post as an OP.

After the post, I prepare lunch and take another dip in the pool and return to read the replies. This is not my whole day, but it takes up part of it. Thank you for being here for me.

80% of Fentanyl smuggled into US are by US citizens at legal ports of entry

Many people wrongly believe that immigration is critical to the illicit supply of fentanyl in the United States. However, proponents of this view have offered little more than speculation to support it. New data obtained by the Cato Institute via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request calls this belief into question. The new dataset shows that US citizens comprised 80 percent of individuals caught with fentanyl during border crossings at ports of entry from 2019 to 2024.

https://www.cato.org/blog/us-citizens-were-802-crossers-fentanyl-ports-entry-2019-2024

Why I feel so discouraged

You see, in 2016 I was up for the fight. The Trump MAGAts were (and still are) racists. The Muslim ban made me angry, and I demonstrated against it. I defended my position and lost some friends. Then the demonization of immigrants, both documented and undocumented. Being married to an immigrant, I took it personally and became estranged from some family members (mostly cousins or their spouses). Then there was George Floyd's murder, the BLM demonstrations and the NFL players taking a knee. On this one, I didn't watch an NFL game with my friends for a year, because we always argued right after the National Anthem. Then the Dobbs decision. I really didn't argue this one, my female relatives did, but I always took the side of "choice".

Then there was November 5, 2024. Over 20% of black men voted for Trump. A majority of white women voted for Trump, including more than 25% who were pro-choice. Harris came in third in most Muslim and Arab communities. 45% of Latinos and a majority of Latino men voted for Trump.

As a retired white, 72-year-old male living in another country, I look at these numbers and feel like a fool. I know I was right to support the people who were losing rights, being denied civil rights or being treated in inhumane ways. But if large segments of the population that are either directly and negatively impacted by Donald Trump's policies or are among the people treated in such a way, vote for that no-good piece of shit, it really wears my sympathies down. I will not face the wrath of MAGATs because of my race or gender or citizen status or my religion, but only because of the way I think. I think I may stand down, for now and rejoin the fight when the people who actually are getting fucked figure it out.

Trump's loyalty is not your normal loyalty test

I keep hearing that the most important thing for Trump's appointments is loyalty. And then his sycophants and enablers reply, "isn't that normal for any President? They demand loyalty".

The difference smacks you right in the face, yet I haven't heard one "talking head" explain the obviuos. A normal President demands loyalty from his staff and appointments over every other politician. They expect you to defend them in public and not leak information to the press that could hurt the administration. Trump demands more than that. He expects his staff and appointments to choose him over the US Constitution. to defy their sworn oath.

Trump has a history of this. Bill Barr, Mike Pence, Gen. Miley, Gen. Kelly, FBI Directors Wray and Comey. This is only the partial list. That's the difference.

I can feel the fear in America

Let's start with the cold open for SNL. It was funny because it had a sliver of truth to it. But even before that. The Washington Post and LA Times pre-edited to show their fear.

Joe and Mica shamelessly traveled to Mat-A-Lago to kiss the ring after bashing others who did so in the past.

On a personal level, I know a few Civil Servants in the Federal Government, and they are terrified. They were appointed 10 or15 years ago under Obama, so they have a Democratic pedigree, which can be easily traced. The fear is palpable.

It's only been 2 or 3 weeks since the election and Trump is still a little less that 2 months from Inauguration, but I can sense the fear. I never sensed this fear during any transition in my lifetime. I'm 72 years old and my father worked at GSA. He never feared for his job, whether a Republican or a Democrat took over the Presidency.

This fear is a by-product of an incoming Authoritarian Government.

A point about the election

I tried, in a previous post, to make a point about "bullet ballots", but I did so clumsily and with some questionable data.

I think I can make my point with more clarity after some long thought.

My thesis is that Trump, and Trump alone, carries the disgruntled electorate that votes on grievance, even though they have no idea who's to blame. In many instances, it's themselves. But that's an issue for another day.

Let me try to deal with facts. Shared facts. Assuming, as I do, that the election was free and fair, here's what we know. Donald Trump gained in nearly every state, from 4 years ago, net voter wise and carried each of the 7 swing states.

Yet even though Trump won the popular vote by about a point and a half and improved in every state, the Republicans did not gain any seats in the House and did not improve upon their dismal performance in 2022.

In 6 of the 7 swing states there was a hotly contested statewide election. 5 Senators and 1 Governor. Even though Trump won each state, the Democrats carried 4 of the 5 contested Senators' races and won the Governorship.

Even in the Republican "pickups", the Democratic candidate outperformed the top of the ticket.

Trump had no coattails. A substantial amount of Trump voters either blanked the rest of the ballot or, in many cases, split the ticket and voted Trump and then Democrats down ballot.

This is not the sign of a successful political movement, but more indicative of a personality cult. As further evidence, Trump-like candidates got trounced in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023. Trump's votes are for Trump. There is no ideology, and his disgruntled voters will return to their cellars in future elections. They are not Republicans. They are not informed voters. They have an ax to grind, and Trump is their vehicle. When Trump leaves the scene, or even when he's still President but not on the ballot, these 4% or 5% of cult members will not participate. They hate Republicans as much as Democrats. They hate our system. That 4% or 5% is the margin of victory or defeat.

The "bullet ballots" give me hope

In the 2024 election there were an inordinate amount of "bullet ballots" in which the voter voted for Trump and no one else on the ballot. Some people think this was a way to "fix" the election for Trump. I do not ascribe to that notion. I have a different take.

In some states, the "bullet ballots" were as high as 7%. The fact that so many were confined to the swing states, I believe, was as a result of the heavier advertising and focus of both campaigns.

But here is where my hope comes in. My theory is that the "Trump only bullet votes" are a direct result of a personal cult, rather than a political movement or ideology. These morons voted for Trump, only for Trump, and have little or no interest in politics. As a result, other than Pennsylvania, the down ballot Democrats were quite successful, especially in the statewide races.

To me, this means when Trump is off the ballot, the cult will return to their basements and under their rocks, and we will have a much more receptive electorate for Democrats in 2026 and 2028.

George Washington was:

Multiple Choice (choose one):

George Washington:

(A). Was a General in the Civil War
(B). Was the first President of the United States of America
(C). Invented the Dollar Bill
(D). All of the above

What percentage of American High School students do you think will choose (D)?