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Takket

(21,560 posts)

17. here is the breakdown from 538

Reply to LandOfHopeAndDreams (Original post)

Thu Sep 27, 2018, 08:57 PM

Sep 2018

80% chance the people take back the house

only 30% chance the people take the Senate but still a LOT of polling to go and so many undecideds to break. We NEED them to break our way.

The "most likely" scenario right now is we gain 1 seat and it is a 50/50 split

Right now that "flipped" seat is projected to be Nevada. In addition to defending ALL our incumbent seats (North Dakota is VERY close but leaning Dem), we need to flip one more. That other seat is most likely Tennessee or Texas (which i never thought would be dangerous for Cruz, but Beto is doing better than expected).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header

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31 replies

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Highlight:

If We Don't Take The Senate Easily Now, We Never Will [View all] LandOfHopeAndDreams Sep 2018 OP

and do our children bdamomma Sep 2018 #1

I Have No Kids LandOfHopeAndDreams Sep 2018 #2

Your concern with have the country liking totalitarism is why I sometimes feel. Blue_true Sep 2018 #3

not to be bdamomma Sep 2018 #4

I understand that, but to be rid of the right, I would still do it. Blue_true Sep 2018 #10

If the country were to split Into 2-4 separate countries it will leave ALL of us with serious Thekaspervote Sep 2018 #18

I don't know whether I agree with that. Blue_true Sep 2018 #20

That won't ever happen. There will be no split. Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #24

I can dream, can't I? Blue_true Sep 2018 #25

I hate the too...they are willing to put a rapist on the court disgusting. Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #29

Senate rso Sep 2018 #5

But Dems are in a position to potentially flip 2-3 republican seats. Blue_true Sep 2018 #11

These are toss up races in traditionally red states... Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #30

The Senate is a long shot, and always was, but you scenaro is NOT valid. 2020 is around the corner, still_one Sep 2018 #6

I hold out hope that Roberts will stop repeal of Roe v Wade. Blue_true Sep 2018 #13

+1000 Exactly right. Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #31

Most "Americans" have no idea what is happening. pangaia Sep 2018 #7

sad bdamomma Sep 2018 #12

True. The ones that care are gerrymandered to not count. /nt bitterross Sep 2018 #27

Do West Virginians and North Dakotans see these issues like we do? Alhena Sep 2018 #8

Heitkamp and The Dem in WV are ahead in their races. Blue_true Sep 2018 #16

It's very very very unlikely this year. Squinch Sep 2018 #9

We must take over both congress and senate full stop! FloridaBlues Sep 2018 #14

I suspect we will get the Senate in 2020, but this year the numbers make it very unlikely. Squinch Sep 2018 #21

I just had a registered Independent friend write on Facebook: unitedwethrive Sep 2018 #15

I never have voted for the GOP and never will, but let us pledge to vote for all Democratic Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #23

here is the breakdown from 538 Takket Sep 2018 #17

We must ... repeat we MUST be willing to play the long game. It may look like that now, but the Thekaspervote Sep 2018 #19

This!!! Dream Girl Sep 2018 #28

That is untrue. Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #22

If we don't take the senate or the house, it will be because of Russia meadowlark5 Sep 2018 #26