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grantcart

(53,061 posts)

20. We have a goid chance in both.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Reply #15)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 12:27 PM

Nov 2018

The key metric in elections with 20% or higher than normal turnout is negatives by the candidates.

In both TN and TX Cruz and Blackburn both have extremely high negatives and this means that they have an effective ceiling and increased turnout will break against them.

Also undecideds generally break against incumbents.

Finally the latest polls are showing significant breaking towards D, polling after the latest shooting and the repeal of birthright citizenship. We may have reached the final straw for a critical 10% of the population.

I find it very interesting that Trump has returned to Montana 4 times and polls still show Tester ahead.

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26 replies

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My Senate map prediction -- looks like it comes down to TX or TN for the win. [View all] honest.abe Nov 2018 OP

I'd be happy if Democrats took the House and didn't lose seats in the senate NewJeffCT Nov 2018 #1

Yeah, that would be great but without the Senate there could be another Idiot appointed Supreme. honest.abe Nov 2018 #5

If I read your map correctly genxlib Nov 2018 #2

Nope.. I have 50 without TX or TN (note they are browned out) honest.abe Nov 2018 #6

I have naive hope that both flip Blue YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #3

Yep, Texas looks like a real possibility. honest.abe Nov 2018 #8

I love your optimism in MO., AZ., Fl., MT n/t. rgbecker Nov 2018 #4

Yeah.. have to be or I would jump off a cliff. honest.abe Nov 2018 #7

Both are breaking D direcection JCMach1 Nov 2018 #9

I'm naively optimistic about both YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #10

I agree with your map jcgoldie Nov 2018 #11

Beto for the win! honest.abe Nov 2018 #14

..."they can have Tennessee." No they can't! I live here and I am still fighting like hell. Tanuki Nov 2018 #19

Sorry jcgoldie Nov 2018 #21

The rigging is already in place for close elections. Firestorm49 Nov 2018 #12

The gerrymandering and voter suppression wont be enough this time. honest.abe Nov 2018 #13

Curious how does someone gerrymander a US Senate seat that is decided statewide? grantcart Nov 2018 #16

Move the state lines I guess.. honest.abe Nov 2018 #24

Gerrymandering doesn't apply in the TX senate race blogslut Nov 2018 #22

I think Democrats eke out wins in NV, AZ, MT, IN and MO... Drunken Irishman Nov 2018 #15

We have a goid chance in both. grantcart Nov 2018 #20

I'll take my chances with that map at 11PM tomorrow night RhodeIslandOne Nov 2018 #17

Beto squeaks out and wins vercetti2021 Nov 2018 #18

A lot of us would break down crying because . . . peggysue2 Nov 2018 #23

I'm not sold on Donnelly D_Master81 Nov 2018 #25

I've seen it the other way. bearsfootball516 Nov 2018 #26