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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #15)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:27 AM

20. We have a goid chance in both.

The key metric in elections with 20% or higher than normal turnout is negatives by the candidates.

In both TN and TX Cruz and Blackburn both have extremely high negatives and this means that they have an effective ceiling and increased turnout will break against them.

Also undecideds generally break against incumbents.

Finally the latest polls are showing significant breaking towards D, polling after the latest shooting and the repeal of birthright citizenship. We may have reached the final straw for a critical 10% of the population.

I find it very interesting that Trump has returned to Montana 4 times and polls still show Tester ahead.

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Arrow 26 replies Author Time Post
honest.abe Nov 2018 OP
NewJeffCT Nov 2018 #1
honest.abe Nov 2018 #5
genxlib Nov 2018 #2
honest.abe Nov 2018 #6
YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #3
honest.abe Nov 2018 #8
rgbecker Nov 2018 #4
honest.abe Nov 2018 #7
JCMach1 Nov 2018 #9
YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #10
jcgoldie Nov 2018 #11
honest.abe Nov 2018 #14
Tanuki Nov 2018 #19
jcgoldie Nov 2018 #21
Firestorm49 Nov 2018 #12
honest.abe Nov 2018 #13
grantcart Nov 2018 #16
honest.abe Nov 2018 #24
blogslut Nov 2018 #22
Drunken Irishman Nov 2018 #15
LineLineNew Reply We have a goid chance in both.
grantcart Nov 2018 #20
RhodeIslandOne Nov 2018 #17
vercetti2021 Nov 2018 #18
peggysue2 Nov 2018 #23
D_Master81 Nov 2018 #25
bearsfootball516 Nov 2018 #26
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