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24. A note from 538 as to why the model may be overreacting

Reply to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:30 PM

Nov 2018

"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

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Holy shit! 538 Republicans 1 in 2 chance win House [View all] Doodley Nov 2018 OP

Where? nycbos Nov 2018 #1

538... PoliticAverse Nov 2018 #2

538. femmedem Nov 2018 #3

Now we are at 39% Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #4

Fuck Doodley Nov 2018 #5

What the fuck is going on???? gay texan Nov 2018 #6

OFFS - 538 updates "real time" so it will be changing all night BumRushDaShow Nov 2018 #7

Wtf Celerity Nov 2018 #8

1 see them at 1 in 5 chances to win....we are at 4 in 5 chances MLAA Nov 2018 #9

didn't you mean 1 in 20? because it's 96% blitzen Nov 2018 #10

That's the Senate Doodley Nov 2018 #15

Normally when it plunges like this it doesn't come back Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #11

Less than that now: 39.9% marybourg Nov 2018 #12

23 is needed. Patterson Nov 2018 #21

3 in 5 Chance Republicans win control of house (60.7%). nt mr_liberal Nov 2018 #13

Oh stop this shit Azathoth Nov 2018 #14

Exactly. Enoki33 Nov 2018 #22

that graph is bad data Takket Nov 2018 #16

4 in 7 chance Dems win now. It updates constantly Roland99 Nov 2018 #17

Back up to 57%. I think it will jump around a bit.... unblock Nov 2018 #18

Now 57% Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #19

Its back ip to 57% we take back the House. Celerity Nov 2018 #20

I have to lay down. Making me sick. Doodley Nov 2018 #23

A note from 538 as to why the model may be overreacting unblock Nov 2018 #24

There is NO WAY they could be that off. budkin Nov 2018 #25

Silver says his model is too aggressive marylandblue Nov 2018 #26

I've stopped watching in real time budkin Nov 2018 #27

Tampering JenniferJuniper Nov 2018 #28

It'll change once we move west. TNLib Nov 2018 #29

We are truly fucked as a nation. LonePirate Nov 2018 #30

How is this even possible gay texan Nov 2018 #31

Nate says krawhitham Nov 2018 #32

Silver turns down the dial... PoliticAverse Nov 2018 #33

Who know - It will be close ! RogerM Nov 2018 #34

At 62% Dems Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Nov 2018 #35

Dem are likely to take the House, but not impressively the way this night has started. NeverTrumpDemocrat Nov 2018 #36