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Response to KY_EnviroGuy (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 18, 2019, 02:43 AM

8. Credit is tightening due to poor Cash Crop pricing.

 

Noticed today that Grain Companies are not expecting any real World Markets again until 2024 or 2025. Once you lose those markets,well it takes years to put those sales and Infrastructure back in place,barges and ships have to be booked and that can take months for that one item. Just the Rail car bookings can take up to six months or more. And this all depends on if you make the sale. Once the Brazilians and the Aussies replaced our farmers,going to be one hell of a tough battle getting those sales back. Same quality of grain only they are now in the drivers seat thanks to Trump and his Pitty Party.

A lot of the Credit squeeze is due to the a fore mention issues of no off shore market gravy sales to keep the demand ahead of supplies. We have a glut of Crops in the Bins and only so much of that will ever be needed in this year. And the 1980's farm crisis is front and center with the Lenders. If your balance sheets are loaded with debt and your operating margins look shaky,chances are your forward financing is in trouble. Machinery is a mixed bag and it is dependent on local circumstances. Appears there are Foreign Buyers stepping in to pick up used Equipment and that has to do with Foreign exchange rates. Cheaper to buy at Auction and have it shipped than buy new at home.

People forget,Money is fungible and can be put to work within a millisecond some where else. And the Big Grain Companies are not going to lose the sale,they just setup shop off shore and still get their piece of the action. BTW,several mega grain growers here State side have major operations in Brazil. And the Aussies are killing the China Market just on the Freight and delivery time . And Trump has poisoned the Trade Waters with China and he does not have any ideal how bad he screwed that up.

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