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spanone

(135,795 posts)

1. Predictions were completely wrong in 2016...GOTV

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Mon May 27, 2019, 03:23 PM

May 2019

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3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020 [View all] RandySF May 2019 OP

Predictions were completely wrong in 2016...GOTV spanone May 2019 #1

Seems when predictions are wrong, it's nearly always in republicans' favor unblock May 2019 #3

Russians helped with that, uponit7771 May 2019 #6

Comey was more damaging than the Russians. StevieM May 2019 #66

Expansion enid602 May 2019 #2

True, but there's room for some rate cuts to delay things unblock May 2019 #4

Debt enid602 May 2019 #9

Donald fraud doesn't care about the damage he does unblock May 2019 #20

60 days?? A HERETIC I AM May 2019 #67

Didn't Nixon have a decent economy too?! uponit7771 May 2019 #5

And he won his second term election by a landslide. NT enough May 2019 #10

That was pre-Nixon impeachment. Wasn't economy pretty decent after re-election & before impeachment? uponit7771 May 2019 #38

nope, it started to go to shit in 1973 (Oil Crisis, Nixon Shock etc, and stagflation ensued) Celerity May 2019 #40

Yes it was, Nixon and Red Don have close avg UE rates (link) and Red Don's JA averages are horrible uponit7771 May 2019 #42

they do not have that close of UE rates, especially in the last 19 months of Nixon versus the last Celerity May 2019 #53

I remember those 16.5% interest rates for CD's those days dhol82 May 2019 #47

I remember rampant inflation in the 70s Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin May 2019 #24

This is wall street political propaganda. democratisphere May 2019 #7

Well, I'm convinced my vote won't count, so why bother... ProudLib72 May 2019 #18

All I can say is if Trump wins who could possibly be proud to call themselves American? walkingman May 2019 #8

I'm not proud to call myself American now. In fact, I desperately want to leave OliverQ May 2019 #16

I would move to Canada if I weren't so old. Texas has become a shithole. walkingman May 2019 #17

I looked into moving to Canada. dhol82 May 2019 #49

I bailed on Texas after forty years...been in Nevada for almost twenty years now pecosbob May 2019 #60

"IF Trump wins who could possibly be proud to call themselves American?" LenaBaby61 May 2019 #27

Garbage in edhopper May 2019 #11

That 'tailwind' is nothing but gas RainCaster May 2019 #12

According to wikipedia standingtall May 2019 #13

Thank you, exactly. Baitball Blogger May 2019 #57

And this is exactly why...... DFW May 2019 #14

actually you have to declare yourself undecided dsc May 2019 #31

F* those models Clarity2 May 2019 #15

I wonder how they figure out... stillcool May 2019 #19

We do have our work cut out for us unblock May 2019 #21

Nate Silver replies: peggysue2 May 2019 #22

Except Silver does not give any evidence for his opinion. former9thward May 2019 #30

This message was self-deleted by its author John Fante May 2019 #36

Try this peggysue2 May 2019 #55

I'm glad I scrolled down Cha May 2019 #46

IF we win WI, MI, and PA this map right below is literally the only way Rump can win outright Celerity May 2019 #59

Chicago FiB here + I would not count on Wisconsin going blue . Milwaukee and MadIson had lunasun May 2019 #63

If Wisconsin stays red we have to absolutely pull PA and MI Celerity May 2019 #64

Living in and near the bluest of the blue states, I'm often stunned Totally Tunsie May 2019 #23

These models are flawed - just look at Trump's approval for proof of this. Drunken Irishman May 2019 #25

Thanks for taking the time to put those numbers together. nt pnwmom May 2019 #29

Obama had 50% on election day but not in mid 2011 which is where we are at in the cycle. former9thward May 2019 #32

Obama's hit 42% only briefly. Trump has been stuck there John Fante May 2019 #37

Again, flawed comparisons. Drunken Irishman May 2019 #39

Not the same. President Obama is a true President. Most Americans already see Trump for what he is rockfordfile May 2019 #69

It is those blinders which lead to our defeat in 2016. former9thward May 2019 #71

+1, Also ... Nixon's avg UE rate was only .2 higher than Red Don's avg (link). Not that the UE rate uponit7771 May 2019 #41

that link has data only up until the end of 2016, how does it have a UE number for Trump? Celerity May 2019 #44

Red Don's numbers are even worse then seeing Nixon's was at one time in the high 60s ... uponit7771 May 2019 #45

Excellent post. Trump matched McCain and John Fante May 2019 #43

Yes, I am aware and willing to swim saidsimplesimon May 2019 #26

And yet, despite the great economy ever (hah!) 55% say they plan to vote against Trump. pnwmom May 2019 #28

Probaby the same number of homeless that were included former9thward May 2019 #33

Every day we see the people at the top distorting the work of the career people. I don't trust pnwmom May 2019 #34

There are thousands of people involved in these numbers. former9thward May 2019 #35

That is a laughable question considering what we are seeing in the Justice Department pnwmom May 2019 #48

A non answer. former9thward May 2019 #56

And you believe that a whistleblower is going to risk prison to tell the truth about statistics. pnwmom May 2019 #58

People leak stories to the Times and Washington Post all the time. former9thward May 2019 #70

Don't pretend to know the future: it always somehow depends on what we do struggle4progress May 2019 #50

ITMF Blue Owl May 2019 #51

If Dump steals the election again, it is secession time. roamer65 May 2019 #52

I tend to believe the election results from Nov. 2018...which two years had gone by after... SWBTATTReg May 2019 #54

Most of the elections held since 2018 have shown dramatic increase in Dem turnout pecosbob May 2019 #61

There is no disputing rump's 'tailwind is large'. nt UniteFightBack May 2019 #62

Republicans mostly win by playing Dirty. things like Voter Suppression and calling on Foreign JI7 May 2019 #65

The economy in 2016 predicted a D hold, too Recursion May 2019 #68