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In reply to the discussion: 3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020 [View all]John Fante
(3,479 posts)Last edited Mon May 27, 2019, 08:52 PM - Edit history (3)
actually underperformed Romney (who got 47% of the vote) but few remember this because Obama beat those men handily.
So while Trump could win again with 46%, it's not a winning number in most cases. He would need massive amounts of help to eek out the victory. That's exactly what he got in 2016 in the form of Comey, wikileaks, third party overperformance, and voter apathy on our side.
Bad news: our nominee won't be under FBI investigation in 2020, and when you consider that 2018 Democrats (60.7 million) nearly matches Trump's 2016 vote total in a midterm, apathy won't be an issue either. The odds that third party candidates will capture 6% of the vote is slim as well. So that's two, maybe three, factors that boosted Trump in 2016 that he won't be able to rely on next year.