I think the alleged conventional wisdom is wrong. I think Dems retake the Senate BY Impeaching Trump [View all]

[Tom Rinaldo]

Though Democrats almost certainly would have the votes to Impeach Trump in the House, barring a stunning turn of events (Barr pun not intended) there are not enough Republicans in the Senate willing to face the anger of Trump's core Republican followers to remove Trump from office. That part of conventional wisdom I agree with. Where I differ is on the implications. I think that while most Senate Republicans would be damned if they voted to convict Trump, the ones who occupy Senate seats that Democrats have any chance of winning would be even more damned if they don't. That scenario, I believe, opens up our best real path to retaking the Senate in 2020.

Trump will not become any more popular with his core base than he already is now. They will not become any more riled up to defend his presidency in 2020 than they already are now. Sure Trump will claim that his impeachment is the deep state moving to remove the legitimate president, but Trump already makes that claim without it. He already asserts that there was a coup attempt against him.

Trump's softer support, the 10 to 15% of voters who are willing to consider voting for him without being died in the wool MAGA true believers, are the ones at stake. And right now the Trump/ Barr strategy is working with them. They will neither read the Mueller Report nor pay much attention to what they will regard as " run of the mill" congressional oversight committee meetings on Trump. Barr already programmed their "bottom line conclusions" for them. No charges were brought against the President, and as matters currently stand, no ground to impeach him have formally been asserted by Congress. They are ripe for believing that partisan political calculations drive Democratic demands that the Mueller Report must be "further investigated". Trump can sell them his line that Democrats just want a "do-over" because they are unsatisfied with the Mueller Reports conclusions which found Trump "guilty of nothing."

The clear counter to Trump's political propaganda regarding the Mueller Report is to state that Mueller has already presented Congress with sufficient evidence to warrant an impeachment inquiry now. That is not a do-over, that instead is taking the logical next step based on the evidence already established by Mueller. And THAT will rivet public attention on the evidence found in Mueller's Report, while providing Democrats with the strongest possible constitutional grounds for demanding and making public additional evidence.

Almost all of the political experts agree that the reason why Trump has a real chance of being reelected is because most economic indicators remain strong, and when that is the case an incumbent president tends to be reelected. That helps explain why many among the subset of Trump voters who find him personally unappealing might be willing to vote for him again. That is also why Trump is not polling at his lows now, even though the redacted Mueller Report has already been out for weeks.

We can forget and write off the type of voter who attends a Trump rally, but not all potential Trump voters wear MAGA hats. Blessed with an at least stable economy (inherited from Obama and juiced up with an obscene tax cut for the rich) Trump enters the 2020 election with a strong talking point in his favor since second term attempt elections are usually referendums on the incumbent. What goes against Trump is the discomfort many feel with the way he has governed, with his unpresidential, abusive and divisive style. Democrats need to drive up Trump's unfavorables in order to win in 2020. More Americans need to see him as the repulsive lying and undemocratic grifter that he is. Widely televised and intently watched impeachment hearings can and will do just that.

Then when the ball is tossed to the Republican Senate, let them go on record standing by Trump, and then let that become an election issue in all of the Senate seats that are up in 2020. Outside of the Republican core, which is already in the bag for them, let's see how voters react to the sickly partisan Republican show of unity for a deeply unethical and dangerous to America's institutions President that the impeachment hearings will have fully exposed. Let it be Republicans who are shown playing partisan games with the U.S. Constitution, not poll driven Democrats with wet fingers in the air gauging how upholding the Constitution will or will not work to their electoral advantage.