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onenote

(42,661 posts)
13. These sorts of charts should be taken with a grain of salt
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:59 PM
Feb 2020

For example, it purports to show the change in the Dow from inauguration day until June 3 of the third year of Obama and Trump's first term. Why June 3? Because that was a low point in the Dow in 2011. And it doesn't get the numbers right. The gain during that period of Obama's first term was around 50 percent. At its highest point in February of Obama's fourth year in Office, the gain was around 63 percent. But if the data point for Trump also is set at the highest point during February of his fourth year, the gain jumps to more than 50 percent, not 20.8 percent.

The market is and has been volatile for some time now. Picking arbitrary points in time for comparisons really doesn't prove much. The market improved a lot during Obama's first term. It also improved during his second term, but by a smaller margin (around 20 percent). During Trump's presidency, the market has continued to improve, generally at an even faster rate than during Obama's second term. Where it ends up at the end of this week, next week, or a month from now? Who knows.

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